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Climate Change Multidecadal And Beyond

Author: Chih-Pei Chang
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 9814579947
Size: 70.10 MB
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This book focuses on two major challenges in the climate sciences: 1) to describe the decadal-to-centennial variations in instrumental and proxy records; and 2) to distinguish between anthropogenic variations and natural variability. The National Taiwan University invited some of the world's leading experts across the areas of observational analysis, mathematical theory, and modeling to discuss these two issues. The outcome of the meeting is the 23 chapters in this book that review the state of the art in theoretical, observational and modeling research on internal, unforced and externally forced climate variability. The main conclusion of this research is that internal climate variability on decadal and longer time scales is so large that sidestepping it may lead to false estimates of the climate's sensitivity to anthropogenic forcing. Contents:Attribution of Climate Change in the Presence of Internal Variability (John M Wallace, Clara Deser, Brian V Smoliak, and Adam S Phillips)A Mathematical Theory of Climate Sensitivity or, How to Deal With Both Anthropogenic Forcing and Natural Variability? (Michael Ghil)Fluctuation-dissipation Theorem with Application to Climate Change Studies with Seasonal Impact (Xiaoming Wang)Parametrization of Cross-scale Interaction in Multiscale Systems (Jeroen Wouters and Valerio Lucarini)Dynamics of Nonlinear Error Growth and the "Spring Predictability Barrier" for El Niño Predictions (Wansuo Duan and Mu Mu)An Adaptive Approach for Nonlinear and Nonstationary Data Analysis (Norden E Huang)Internal Southern Ocean Centennial Variability: Dynamics, Impacts and Implications for Global Warming (Mojib Latif, Torge Martin, Wonsun Park, and Mohammad H Bordbar)Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and Climate (Rong Zhang)North Atlantic Multi-Decadal Variability — Mechanisms and Predictability (Noel S Keenlyside, Jin Ba, Jennifer Mecking, Nour-Eddine Omrani, Mojib Latif, Rong Zhang, and Rym Msadek)A Review of the Dynamics of Pacific Interdecadal Climate Variability (Zhengyu Liu)Global-Scale Decadal Hyper Modes (Dietmar Dommenget)Evidence for a Recurrent Multi-Decadal Oscillation in Global Temperature and Possible Impacts on 21st Century Climate Projections (Ka-Kit Tung and Jiansong Zhou)Variability of Sea Ice Extent Over Decadal and Longer Timescales (John E Walsh and William L Chapman)Multi-year Prediction and Predictability (Timothy DelSole, Michael K Tippett, and Liwei Jia)Decadal Hydroclimate Variability Across the Americas (Richard Seager)The Interhemispheric Pattern and Long-Term Variations in the Tropical Climate over the 20th and 21st Centuries (John C H Chiang)Climate of China in the Holocene (Wang Shaowu, Wen Xinyu, and Huang Jianbin)North Atlantic Hurricane Activity: Past, Present and Future (Rym Msadek, Gabriel A Vecchi, and Thomas R Knutson)Observed Variations of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity on Decadal Time Scales and Longer (Johnny C L Chan)Record-Breaking Increase of Tropical Cyclone Heavy Rainfall in Taiwan in the First Decade of 21st Century (Chih-Pei Chang, Hung-Chi Kuo, and Chung-Hsiung Sui)Multi-Decadal Variability in Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Using Proxy Data (Bhupendra N Goswami, Ramesh H Kripalani, Hemant P Borgaonkar, and Bhaskar Preethi)The South-Flood North-Drought Pattern Over Eastern China and the Drying of the Gangetic Plain (Sumant Nigam, Yongjing Zhao, Alfredo Ruiz-Barradas, and Tianjun Zhou)Impacts of Aerosols on the Asian Monsoon — An Interim Assessment (William K M Lau and Kyu-Myong Kim) Readership: Graduate students, academics and researchers in atmospheric sciences, oceanography, mathematics, and climate change. Keywords:Climate Change;Multidecadal Variability;Climate Variability Asia-Pacific Weather

Indo Pacific Climate Variability And Predictability

Author: Swadhin Kumar Behera
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 9814696625
Size: 42.89 MB
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"This book aims to compile some of the important results from the latest research in climate variation and prediction studies with a focus on the role of the ocean, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region. Several new modes of ocean-atmosphere climate variations have been discovered in the last decade, and the advance of climate models have made it possible to predict some of these modes several seasons ahead. This has improved the society's ability to use model predictions to mitigate climate disaster risks. Leading experts in the field were invited to contribute to this book in order to compile a comprehensive review for the benefit of researchers as well as general readers interested in the subject."--

Discontinuity Nonlinearity And Complexity

Author: Lev Ostrovsky
Publisher: L& H Scientific Publishing
ISBN:
Size: 35.38 MB
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The interdisciplinary journal publishes original and new results on recent developments, discoveries and progresses on Discontinuity, Nonlinearity and Complexity in physical and social sciences. The aim of the journal is to stimulate more research interest for exploration of discontinuity, complexity, nonlinearity and chaos in complex systems. The manuscripts in dynamical systems with nonlinearity and chaos are solicited, which includes mathematical theories and methods, physical principles and laws, and computational techniques. The journal provides a place to researchers for the rapid exchange of ideas and techniques in discontinuity, complexity, nonlinearity and chaos in physical and social sciences. No length limitations for contributions are set, but only concisely written manuscripts are published. Brief papers are published on the basis of Technical Notes. Discussions of previous published papers are welcome. Topics of Interest Complex and hybrid dynamical systemsDiscontinuous dynamical systems (i.e., impulsive, time-delay, flow barriers)Nonlinear discrete systems and symbolic dynamicsFractional dynamical systems and controlStochastic dynamical systems and randomnessComplexity, self-similarity and synchronization in nonlinear physicsNonlinear phenomena and physical mechanismsStability, bifurcation and chaos in complex systemsHydrodynamics, turbulence and complexity mechanismNonlinear waves and solitonDynamical networksCombinatorial aspects of dynamical systemsBiological dynamics and biophysics

Indo Pacific Climate Variability And Predictability

Author: Swadhin Kumar Behera
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 9814696633
Size: 44.96 MB
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' This book aims to compile some of the important results from the latest research in climate variation and prediction studies with a focus on the role of the ocean, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region. Several new modes of ocean-atmosphere climate variations have been discovered in the last decade, and the advance of climate models have made it possible to predict some of these modes several seasons ahead. This has improved the society''s ability to use model predictions to mitigate climate disaster risks. Leading experts in the field were invited to contribute to this book in order to compile a comprehensive review for the benefit of researchers as well as general readers interested in the subject. Contents:Old and New Faces of Climate Variations (Toshio Yamagata, Yushi Morioka and Swadhin Behera)Ocean Processes Relevant to Climate Variations in the Indian Ocean Sector (Yukio Masumoto, Motoki Nagura, Toru Miyama, Shang-Ping Xie, Zuojun Yu, Julian P McCreary, Jr, P N Vinayachandran, Raleigh R Hood and Hezi Gildor)Current Status of Intraseasonal–Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction of the Indo-Pacific Climate (Jing-Jia Luo, Chaoxia Yuan, Wataru Sasaki, Swadhin K Behera, Yukio Masumoto, Toshio Yamagata, June-Yi Lee and Sebastien Masson)Energetics of the Global Ocean: The Role of Mesoscale Eddies (Hidenori Aiki, Xiaoming Zhai and Richard J Greatbatch)Parameterization of the Ocean Mixed Layer and Its Influence on the OGCM (Yign Noh)Western Pacific and Marginal Sea Processes (Tangdong Qu, Tomoki Tozuka, Shinichiro Kida, Xinyu Guo, Yasumasa Miyazawa and Qinyu Liu)Air–Sea Interaction Over the Western Boundary Currents in the Western North Pacific (Shoshiro Minobe, Bo Qiu, Masami Nonaka and Hisashi Nakamura)An Overview of Coupled GCM Biases in the Tropics (Ingo Richter, Takeshi Doi, Ping Chang, Zhao Xu, Takahito Kataoka, Tomoki Tozuka, Motoki Nagura, Pascal Oettli and Simon P de Szoeke)Dynamical Downscaling of Seasonal Climate in Southern Africa (J Venkata Ratnam, Satyaban B Ratna, Swadhin K Behera, C J de W Rautenbach, Keiko Takakashi and Toshio Yamagata)Characterizing the Reliability of Global Crop Prediction Based on Seasonal Climate Forecasts (Toshichika Iizumi, Masayuki Yokozawa, Gen Sakurai, Hirofumi Sakuma, Jing-Jia Luo, Andrew J Challinor and Toshio Yamagata)Weathering Global Climate Change (Antonio Navarra and George Philander) Readership: Graduate students, academics and researchers in atmospheric sciences, oceanography, mathematics, and climate change. Key Features:It has the information on latest modes of climate variationsMost of the authors are renowned in the world climate research community and would endorse the book in their peers and academic institutionsThe book has compiled some unique aspects of the present day climate research that are of great interests for the researchers in the communityKeywords:Indian Ocean Dipole;El Nino;El Nino Modoki;Monsoon;Ningaloo Nino;California Nino;Climate Variations;Seasonal Predictions;Western Boundary;Ocean Eddies;Ocean Mixing;Model Bias;GCM;Downscaling'

Bridging Science And Policy Implication For Managing Climate Extremes

Author: Jung Hong-sang
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 9813235675
Size: 19.35 MB
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Since 1980, the number of climate-related disasters has been greatly increased globally. Scientific consensus based on the IPCC fifth report suggested that global warming would bring more intense and frequent extreme climate events. These climate-related disasters hinder the achievement of sustainable economic growth and prosperity by disrupting supply chains, impeding production, destroying infrastructure, and necessitating high-cost rebuilding and recovery. To mitigate the climate extreme risks and possible losses, it is essential to maximize the utilization of scientific outputs and to share best practices in disaster risk management. Aligned with such purposes, Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Climate Center (APCC) hosts the APEC Climate Symposium (APCS) every year. APCS focused on drought prediction and management in 2013, climate extremes and hydrological disaster in 2014, and efficient use of climate information for disaster risk management in 2015. This book aims to compile some of the important results from the latest research in climate extreme prediction and services and its application studies with a focus on climate extremes such as typhoons, droughts, and floods based on the APCS presentations during 2013–2015. Contents: Assessing Seasonal Climate Forecasts Over Africa to Support Decision-Making (Niko Wanders and Eric F Wood)Variability and Predictability of Climate Linked to Extreme Events (Swadhin Behera)Subseasonal Prediction of Extreme Weather Events (Bin Wang and Ja-Yeon Moon)Climate Services: For Informing Decisions and Managing Risk (Neil Plummer, Agata Imielska, Karl Braganza, David Jones, Janita Pahalad, Scott Power, Martin Schweitzer, Andrew Watkins, David Walland and Perry Wiles)Early Warning, Resilient Infrastructure and Risk Transfer (David P Rogers, Haleh Kootval and Vladimir V Tsirkunov)Climate Services for Sustainable Development (Mannava V K Sivakumar and Filipe Lucio)Future Changes of Extreme Weather and Natural Disasters due to Climate Change in Japan and Southeast Asia (Eiichi Nakakita, Yasuto Tachikawa, Tetsuya Takemi, Nobuhito Mori and Kenji Tanaka)Climate Change and Stream Temperature in the Willamette River Basin: Implications for Fish Habitat (Heejun Chang, Eric Watson and Angela Strecker)An Integrated Approach for Flood Inundation Modeling on Large Scales (Venkatesh Merwade, Mohammad Adnan Rajib and Zhu Liu)Service and Research on Seasonal Streamflow Forecasting in Australia (P M Feikema, Q J Wang, S Zhou, D Shin, D E Robertson, A Schepen, J Lerat, J C Bennett, N K Tuteja and D Jayasuriya)A Holistic Framework to Assess Drought Preparedness (Ximing Cai, Majid Shafiee-Jood, Yan Ge, Sylwia Kokoszka and Tushar Apurv)Priorities of the WMO Commission for Hydrology in the Context of Water, Climate and Risk Management (Liu Zhiyu)From Prediction to Scenario Analysis: A Brief Review and Commentary (Bryan C Bates) Readership: Graduate students, academics and researchers in meteorology/climatology, and weather forecasting services. Keywords: Review: Key Features: This book is useful for the students preparing for competitions like IYPTSupplementary materials (such as videos) are provided to demonstrate the experiments more vividlyExperimental demonstrations and numerical simulations made the technical solution accessible to general public

Abrupt Impacts Of Climate Change

Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309287766
Size: 46.46 MB
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Climate is changing, forced out of the range of the past million years by levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases not seen in the Earth's atmosphere for a very, very long time. Lacking action by the world's nations, it is clear that the planet will be warmer, sea level will rise, and patterns of rainfall will change. But the future is also partly uncertain -- there is considerable uncertainty about how we will arrive at that different climate. Will the changes be gradual, allowing natural systems and societal infrastructure to adjust in a timely fashion? Or will some of the changes be more abrupt, crossing some threshold or "tipping point" to change so fast that the time between when a problem is recognized and when action is required shrinks to the point where orderly adaptation is not possible? Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change is an updated look at the issue of abrupt climate change and its potential impacts. This study differs from previous treatments of abrupt changes by focusing on abrupt climate changes and also abrupt climate impacts that have the potential to severely affect the physical climate system, natural systems, or human systems, often affecting multiple interconnected areas of concern. The primary timescale of concern is years to decades. A key characteristic of these changes is that they can come faster than expected, planned, or budgeted for, forcing more reactive, rather than proactive, modes of behavior. Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change summarizes the state of our knowledge about potential abrupt changes and abrupt climate impacts and categorizes changes that are already occurring, have a high probability of occurrence, or are unlikely to occur. Because of the substantial risks to society and nature posed by abrupt changes, this report recommends the development of an Abrupt Change Early Warning System that would allow for the prediction and possible mitigation of such changes before their societal impacts are severe. Identifying key vulnerabilities can help guide efforts to increase resiliency and avoid large damages from abrupt change in the climate system, or in abrupt impacts of gradual changes in the climate system, and facilitate more informed decisions on the proper balance between mitigation and adaptation. Although there is still much to learn about abrupt climate change and abrupt climate impacts, to willfully ignore the threat of abrupt change could lead to more costs, loss of life, suffering, and environmental degradation. Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change makes the case that the time is here to be serious about the threat of tipping points so as to better anticipate and prepare ourselves for the inevitable surprises.

The Global Monsoon System

Author: Chih-Pei Chang
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 9814343412
Size: 68.82 MB
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This book presents a current review of the science of monsoon research and forecasting. The contents are based on the invited reviews presented at the World Meteorological Organization''s Fourth International Workshop on Monsoons in late 2008, with subsequent manuscripts revised from 2009 to early 2010. The book builds on the concept that the monsoons in various parts of the globe can be viewed as components of an integrated global monsoon system, while emphasizing that significant region-specific characteristics are present in individual monsoon regions. The topics covered include all major monsoon regions and time scales (mesoscale, synoptic, intraseasonal, interannual, decadal, and climate change). It is intended to provide an updated comprehensive review of the current status of knowledge, modeling capability, and future directions in the research of monsoon systems around the world.