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Complexity And Artificial Markets

Author: Klaus Schredelseker
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3540705562
Size: 49.65 MB
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In recent years, agent-based simulation has become a widely accepted tool when dealing with complexity in economics and other social sciences. The contributions presented in this book apply agent-based methods to derive results from complex models related to market mechanisms, evolution, decision making, and information economics. In addition, the applicability of agent-based methods to complex problems in economics is discussed from a methodological perspective. The papers presented in this collection combine approaches from economics, finance, computer science, natural sciences, philosophy, and cognitive sciences.

Managing Market Complexity

Author: Andrea Teglio
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3642313019
Size: 21.49 MB
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The field of artificial economics (AE) embraces a broad range of methodologies relying on computer simulations in order to model and study the complexity of economic and social phenomena. The overarching principle of AE is the analysis of aggregate properties of artificial economies populated by adaptive agents that are equipped with behavioural rules and specific individual targets. These aggregate properties are neither foreseen nor intended by the artificial agents; conversely they are emerging characteristics of such artificially simulated systems. The book presents a peer-reviewed collection of papers addressing a variety of issues related to macroeconomics, industrial organization, networks, management and finance, as well as purely methodological issues.

Agent Based Approaches In Economic And Social Complex Systems

Author: Akira Namatame
Publisher: IOS Press
ISBN: 9781586032258
Size: 36.82 MB
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This book explores the exciting new field of Artificial Intelligence. It features in-depth coverage of important theoretical areas, including computational organization, computational economics, computational approaches in social science, and game theory. The concepton of the multi-agent system is particularly attractive, as it promises autonomy based on the conceptual speciality of a rational agent as well as collective behavior through interactions. The book draws out themes, especially the ideas of connectivity and natural computation, that reveal deep, underlying similarities between phenomena that have formerly been treated as completely distinct. The idea of agent-based approach is particularly rich in fresh approaches applicable to many fields such as artificial intelligence, computational organization, computational economics, and computational game theory.

The Language Complexity Game

Author: Eric Sven Ristad
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 9780262181471
Size: 56.53 MB
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'How can language be both complex and subtle, yet simple and effortless? Eric Ristad's book tackles this deepest of questions with all the power and precision of modern computer science, coming up with the best analysis of human language complexity since Chomsky's famous demonstrations that natural languages cannot be described via simple linear patterns.' -- Robert C. Berwick, MIT 'Eric Ristad's carefully reasoned and penetrating study brings together the theories of language structure and computational complexity in a most productive way, providing much new insight into the nature and use of language.' -- Noam Chomsky, MIT This monograph establishes a conceptually coherent and technically sound framework for the computational study of human language. The fundamental method of this framework is an adversarial game between two players, the first of whom attempts to establish that language is more complex than previously thought, and the second who tries to establish that language is less complex than previously thought. The expected outcome of such a language complexity game is a precise computational theory of language, that is empirically correct in all computationally significant respects. Ristad exemplifies this powerful framework with a far-ranging and detailed investigation of language computations related to anaphora. Artificial Intelligence series

Complexity In Financial Markets

Author: Matthieu Cristelli
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3319007238
Size: 49.31 MB
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Tools and methods from complex systems science can have a considerable impact on the way in which the quantitative assessment of economic and financial issues is approached, as discussed in this thesis. First it is shown that the self-organization of financial markets is a crucial factor in the understanding of their dynamics. In fact, using an agent-based approach, it is argued that financial markets’ stylized facts appear only in the self-organized state. Secondly, the thesis points out the potential of so-called big data science for financial market modeling, investigating how web-driven data can yield a picture of market activities: it has been found that web query volumes anticipate trade volumes. As a third achievement, the metrics developed here for country competitiveness and product complexity is groundbreaking in comparison to mainstream theories of economic growth and technological development. A key element in assessing the intangible variables determining the success of countries in the present globalized economy is represented by the diversification of the productive basket of countries. The comparison between the level of complexity of a country's productive system and economic indicators such as the GDP per capita discloses its hidden growth potential.

Complexity And The Economy

Author: W. Brian Arthur
Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA
ISBN: 0199334293
Size: 65.79 MB
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A collection of previous published papers by the author on the subject of complexity economics, appearing from the 1980s to the present.

Why Stock Markets Crash

Author: Didier Sornette
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 1400885094
Size: 50.77 MB
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The scientific study of complex systems has transformed a wide range of disciplines in recent years, enabling researchers in both the natural and social sciences to model and predict phenomena as diverse as earthquakes, global warming, demographic patterns, financial crises, and the failure of materials. In this book, Didier Sornette boldly applies his varied experience in these areas to propose a simple, powerful, and general theory of how, why, and when stock markets crash. Most attempts to explain market failures seek to pinpoint triggering mechanisms that occur hours, days, or weeks before the collapse. Sornette proposes a radically different view: the underlying cause can be sought months and even years before the abrupt, catastrophic event in the build-up of cooperative speculation, which often translates into an accelerating rise of the market price, otherwise known as a "bubble." Anchoring his sophisticated, step-by-step analysis in leading-edge physical and statistical modeling techniques, he unearths remarkable insights and some predictions--among them, that the "end of the growth era" will occur around 2050. Sornette probes major historical precedents, from the decades-long "tulip mania" in the Netherlands that wilted suddenly in 1637 to the South Sea Bubble that ended with the first huge market crash in England in 1720, to the Great Crash of October 1929 and Black Monday in 1987, to cite just a few. He concludes that most explanations other than cooperative self-organization fail to account for the subtle bubbles by which the markets lay the groundwork for catastrophe. Any investor or investment professional who seeks a genuine understanding of looming financial disasters should read this book. Physicists, geologists, biologists, economists, and others will welcome Why Stock Markets Crash as a highly original "scientific tale," as Sornette aptly puts it, of the exciting and sometimes fearsome--but no longer quite so unfathomable--world of stock markets.

Artificial Life

Author: Christopher G. Langton
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 9780262621120
Size: 14.23 MB
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This book brings together a series of overview articles that appeared in the first three issues of the groundbreaking journal Artificial Life.

Complex Networks

Author: Eli Ben-Naim
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9783540223542
Size: 29.69 MB
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This volume is devoted to applications of the techniques of statistical physics to the characterization and modeling of complex networks. The first two parts of the book concern theory and modeling of networks, while the last two parts survey applications to a wide variety of natural and artificial networks. The tutorial reviews that comprise this book are intended for students and newcomers to the field, and they also constitute a modern and comprehensive reference for experts. To this aim, all contributions have been carefully peer-reviewed not only for scientific content but also for self-consistency and readability.

Advances In Artificial Economics

Author: Charlotte Bruun
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3540372490
Size: 36.92 MB
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This book is based on presentations at AE’2006 (Aalborg, Denmark) – the second symposium on Artificial Economics. As a new constructive simulation method, Agent-Based Computational Economics (ACE) has in recent years proven its strength and applicability. Coverage in this volume extends to well known questions of economics, like the existence of market efficiency, and to questions raised by new analytical tools, for example networks of social interaction.