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Controlling Uncertainty

Author: Magda Osman
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 144435180X
Size: 25.13 MB
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Controlling Uncertainty: Decision Making and Learning in Complex Worlds reviews and discusses the most current research relating to the ways we can control the uncertain world around us. Features reviews and discussions of the most current research in a number of fields relevant to controlling uncertainty, such as psychology, neuroscience, computer science and engineering Presents a new framework that is designed to integrate a variety of disparate fields of research Represents the first book of its kind to provide a general overview of work related to understanding control

Controlling Uncertainty Decision Making And Learning In Complex Worlds

Author: CTI Reviews
Publisher: Cram101 Textbook Reviews
ISBN: 1467223166
Size: 46.95 MB
Format: PDF
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Facts101 is your complete guide to Controlling Uncertainty, Decision Making and Learning in Complex Worlds. In this book, you will learn topics such as as those in your book plus much more. With key features such as key terms, people and places, Facts101 gives you all the information you need to prepare for your next exam. Our practice tests are specific to the textbook and we have designed tools to make the most of your limited study time.

Dynamics Of Decision Making From Evidence To Preference And Belief

Author: Erica Yu
Publisher: Frontiers E-books
ISBN: 2889192709
Size: 30.64 MB
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At the core of the many debates throughout cognitive science concerning how decisions are made are the processes governing the time course of preference formation and decision. From perceptual choices, such as whether the signal on a radar screen indicates an enemy missile or a spot on a CT scan indicates a tumor, to cognitive value-based decisions, such as selecting an agreeable flatmate or deciding the guilt of a defendant, significant and everyday decisions are dynamic over time. Phenomena such as decoy effects, preference reversals and order effects are still puzzling researchers. For example, in a legal context, jurors receive discrete pieces of evidence in sequence, and must integrate these pieces together to reach a singular verdict. From a standard Bayesian viewpoint the order in which people receive the evidence should not influence their final decision, and yet order effects seem a robust empirical phenomena in many decision contexts. Current research on how decisions unfold, especially in a dynamic environment, is advancing our theoretical understanding of decision making. This Research Topic aims to review and further explore the time course of a decision - from how prior beliefs are formed to how those beliefs are used and updated over time, towards the formation of preferences and choices and post-decision processes and effects. Research literatures encompassing varied approaches to the time-scale of decisions will be brought into scope: a) Speeded decisions (and post-decision processes) that require the accumulation of noisy and possibly non-stationary perceptual evidence (e.g., randomly moving dots stimuli), within a few seconds, with or without temporal uncertainty. b) Temporally-extended, value-based decisions that integrate feedback values (e.g., gambling machines) and internally-generated decision criteria (e.g., when one switches attention, selectively, between the various aspects of several choice alternatives). c) Temporally extended, belief-based decisions that build on the integration of evidence, which interacts with the decision maker's belief system, towards the updating of the beliefs and the formation of judgments and preferences (as in the legal context). Research that emphasizes theoretical concerns (including optimality analysis) and mechanisms underlying the decision process, both neural and cognitive, is presented, as well as research that combines experimental and computational levels of analysis.

Educational Research And Innovation The Nature Of Problem Solving Using Research To Inspire 21st Century Learning

Author: Csapó Benő
Publisher: OECD Publishing
ISBN: 9264273956
Size: 39.91 MB
Format: PDF, ePub
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Solving non-routine problems is a key competence in a world full of changes, uncertainty and surprise where we strive to achieve so many ambitious goals. But the world is also full of solutions because of the extraordinary competences of humans who search for and find them.

The Oxford Handbook Of Causal Reasoning

Author: Michael Waldmann
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0199399565
Size: 53.15 MB
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Causal reasoning is one of our most central cognitive competencies, enabling us to adapt to our world. Causal knowledge allows us to predict future events, or diagnose the causes of observed facts. We plan actions and solve problems using knowledge about cause-effect relations. Although causal reasoning is a component of most of our cognitive functions, it has been neglected in cognitive psychology for many decades. The Oxford Handbook of Causal Reasoning offers a state-of-the-art review of the growing field, and its contribution to the world of cognitive science. The Handbook begins with an introduction of competing theories of causal learning and reasoning. In the next section, it presents research about basic cognitive functions involved in causal cognition, such as perception, categorization, argumentation, decision-making, and induction. The following section examines research on domains that embody causal relations, including intuitive physics, legal and moral reasoning, psychopathology, language, social cognition, and the roles of space and time. The final section presents research from neighboring fields that study developmental, phylogenetic, and cultural differences in causal cognition. The chapters, each written by renowned researchers in their field, fill in the gaps of many cognitive psychology textbooks, emphasizing the crucial role of causal structures in our everyday lives. This Handbook is an essential read for students and researchers of the cognitive sciences, including cognitive, developmental, social, comparative, and cross-cultural psychology; philosophy; methodology; statistics; artificial intelligence; and machine learning.

Uncertainty In Policy Making

Author: Michael Heazle
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1136530320
Size: 56.82 MB
Format: PDF, Kindle
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Uncertainty in Policy Making explores how uncertainty is interpreted and used by policy makers, experts and politicians. It argues that conventional notions of rational, evidence-based policy making - hailed by governments and organisations across the world as the only way to make good policy - is an impossible aim in highly complex and uncertain environments; the blind pursuit of such a 'rational' goal is in fact irrational in a world of competing values and interests. The book centres around two high-profile and important case studies: the Iraq war and climate change policy in the US, UK and Australia. Based on three years' research, including interviews with experts such as Hans Blix, Paul Pillar, and Brian Jones, these two case studies show that the treatment of uncertainty issues in specialist advice is largely determined by how well the advice fits with or contradicts the policy goals and orientation of the policy elite. Instead of allowing the debates to be side-tracked by arguments over whose science or expert advice is 'more right', we must accept that uncertainty in complex issues is unavoidable and recognise the values and interests that lie at the heart of the issues. The book offers a 'hedging' approach which will enable policy makers to manage rather than eliminate uncertainty.

Managing Uncertainties In Networks

Author: Johannes Franciscus Maria Koppenjan
Publisher: Psychology Press
ISBN: 9780415369404
Size: 41.60 MB
Format: PDF, Mobi
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As public and private sector organizations work more frequently in partnership, managing uncertainties, problems and controversies becomes increasingly difficult. Despite sophisticated technology and knowledge, the strategic networks and games required to solve uncertainties becomes more complex and more important than ever before. This unique text examines such developments in the area of network strategy. Differentiating itself from other policy network approaches which mainly have a research focus, this text has a managerial orientation, presenting strategies and management recommendations for public and private sector organizations as well as the analytical tools required by practitioners seeking to support their own internal decision-making and strategy formulation. Tapping into the important and ever-growing area of risk and uncertainty management, this is a vital and long awaited staple for the arena, written by two leading authors in the field, and is key reading for students, scholars and policy makers seeking to understand the complexities of the network society.

Methods For Decision Making In An Uncertain Environment

Author: Jaime Gil Aluja
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 9814415774
Size: 40.47 MB
Format: PDF, ePub
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This book contains a selection of the papers presented at the XVII SIGEF Congress. It presents fuzzy logic, neural networks and other intelligent techniques applied to economic and business problems. This book is very useful for researchers and graduate students aiming to introduce themselves to the field of quantitative techniques for overcoming uncertain environments. The contributors are experienced scholars of different countries who offer real world applications of these mathematical techniques.

Managing The Unexpected

Author: Karl E. Weick
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118862414
Size: 49.35 MB
Format: PDF
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Since the first edition of Managing the Unexpected was published in 2001, the unexpected has become a growing part of our everyday lives. The unexpected is often dramatic, as with hurricanes, terrorist attacks, bank failures, recessions, and environmental disasters.. But the unexpected can also come in more subtle forms, such as a small organizational lapse that leads to a major blunder, or an unexamined assumption that costs lives in a crisis. Why are some organizations better able than others to maintain function and structure in the face of unanticipated change? Authors Karl E. Weick and Kathleen M. Sutcliffe answer this question by pointing to high reliability organizations (HROs), such as emergency rooms in hospitals, flight operations of aircraft carriers, and firefighting units, as models to follow. These organizations have developed ways of acting and styles of learning that enable them to manage the unexpected better than other organizations. Thoroughly revised and updated with new case studies and research, the new edition of the groundbreakingManaging the Unexpected uses HROs as a template for any institution that wants to better organize for high reliability. Managing the Unexpected is a guide for learning the hard-won lessons of high reliability organizations that are able to manage unexpected threats and bounce back in a stronger position to tackle future challenges.