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Estimating Impact

Author: Alexander Kott
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9781441962355
Size: 51.71 MB
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Sociological theories of crime include: theories of strain blame crime on personal stressors; theories of social learning blame crime on its social rewards, and see crime more as an institution in conflict with other institutions rather than as in- vidual deviance; and theories of control look at crime as natural and rewarding, and explore the formation of institutions that control crime. Theorists of corruption generally agree that corruption is an expression of the Patron–Client relationship in which a person with access to resources trades resources with kin and members of the community in exchange for loyalty. Some approaches to modeling crime and corruption do not involve an explicit simulation: rule based systems; Bayesian networks; game theoretic approaches, often based on rational choice theory; and Neoclassical Econometrics, a rational choice-based approach. Simulation-based approaches take into account greater complexities of interacting parts of social phenomena. These include fuzzy cognitive maps and fuzzy rule sets that may incorporate feedback; and agent-based simulation, which can go a step farther by computing new social structures not previously identified in theory. The latter include cognitive agent models, in which agents learn how to perceive their en- ronment and act upon the perceptions of their individual experiences; and reactive agent simulation, which, while less capable than cognitive-agent simulation, is adequate for testing a policy’s effects with existing societal structures. For example, NNL is a cognitive agent model based on the REPAST Simphony toolkit.

Advances In Cross Cultural Decision Making

Author: Mark Hoffman
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319607472
Size: 18.12 MB
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This book reports on the latest advances in understanding cross-cultural decision and human cognition with respect to various cultural constructs, such as geographical, historical, sociological, and organizational cultures. It addresses researchers, scholars, and industry practitioners from diverse fields, including sociology, linguistics, business, military science, psychology, human factors research, neuroscience, and education. The book covers a wealth of topics, including: analyses of historical events and intercultural competence; commercial applications of social-cultural science; the study of decision-making similarities (and differences) across cultures; cultural behavioral modeling and simulation technology; and social networks and studies on group communication alike. It also reports on real-world case studies relevant to cross-cultural decision-making. The book’s main goal is to combine studies from other relevant disciplines such as causal analysis in complex environments, team decision making and social changes to develop a more holistic understanding of the decisions that people, groups, and societies make, so as to improve our ability to forecast and plan for the future. Based on the AHFE 2017 International Conference on Cross-Cultural Decision Making (CCDM), held on July 17–21, 2017, in Los Angeles, California, USA, this book offers a multidisciplinary view on the impact of culture on people’s cognition and behavior, and a timely reference guide to new applications and future challenges.

Modeling Sociocultural Influences On Decision Making

Author: Joseph V. Cohn
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 149873670X
Size: 56.36 MB
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In our increasingly globally interconnected world, understanding and appreciating the sociocultural context within which individuals make their decisions is critical to developing successful partnerships. The collection of chapters in this volume illustrates how advances in information and social media technologies, as well as modeling and simulation tools, combined with the social sciences, can be leveraged to better understand how sociocultural context influences decision making. The chapters in this volume were contributed by leading experts from academia, industry, and government and provide: Insights into cross-cultural decision making based on recent international events, with grounding in an historical context Discussions of cutting-edge modeling techniques used today by professionals across multiple organizations and agencies Descriptions of specific cross-cultural decision making tools designed for use by laypeople and professionals Case studies on the role of cross-cultural decision making grounded in current events and (in many cases) military applications.

Quantitative Intelligence Analysis

Author: Edward Waltz
Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield
ISBN: 144223587X
Size: 65.53 MB
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Quantitative Intelligence Analysis describes the model-based method of intelligence analysis that represents the analyst’s mental models of a subject, as well as the analyst’s reasoning process exposing what the analyst believes about the subject, and how they arrived at those beliefs and converged on analytic judgments. It includes: Specific methods of explicitly representing the analyst’s mental models as computational models; Dynamic simulations and interactive analytic games; The structure of an analyst’s mental model and the theoretical basis for capturing and representing the tacit knowledge of these models explicitly as computational models detailed description of the use of these models in rigorous, structured analysis of difficult targets; Model illustrations and simulation descriptions; The role of models in support of collection and operations; Case studies that illustrate a wide range of intelligence problems; And a recommended curriculum for technical analysts.

Cyberpolitics In International Relations

Author: Nazli Choucri
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 0262017636
Size: 73.90 MB
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Cyberspace is widely acknowledged as a fundamental fact of daily life in today'sworld. Until recently, its political impact was thought to be a matter of low politics--backgroundconditions and routine processes and decisions. Now, however, experts have begun to recognize itseffect on high politics--national security, core institutions, and critical decision processes. Inthis book, Nazli Choucri investigates the implications of this new cyberpolitical reality forinternational relations theory, policy, and practice. The ubiquity, fluidity, and anonymity ofcyberspace have already challenged such concepts as leverage and influence, national security anddiplomacy, and borders and boundaries in the traditionally state-centric arena of internationalrelations. Choucri grapples with fundamental questions of how we can take explicit account ofcyberspace in the analysis of world politics and how we can integrate the traditional internationalsystem with its cyber venues. After establishing the theoretical and empiricalterrain, Choucri examines modes of cyber conflict and cyber cooperation in international relations;the potential for the gradual convergence of cyberspace and sustainability, in both substantive andpolicy terms; and the emergent synergy of cyberspace and international efforts toward sustainabledevelopment. Choucri's discussion is theoretically driven and empirically grounded, drawing onrecent data and analyzing the dynamics of cyberpolitics at individual, state, international, andglobal levels. The hardcover edition does not include a dust jacket.

Advances In Design For Cross Cultural Activities

Author: Dylan D. Schmorrow
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1439870292
Size: 11.41 MB
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This reference focuses on decision-making styles within cultures. It focuses on cooperative, collaborative, avoidant, competitive, and dominant styles of decision making, and discusses how each process is modified by the culture. The contributors examine issues within culture that affect decision making, such as individualism and collectivism, considered the most important influences in decision making. This reference is one of 10 predicted to be derived from the 2012 Applied Human Factors and Ergonomics (AHFE) Conference.

Climate And Social Stress

Author: Committee on Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Social and Political Stresses
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309278562
Size: 27.39 MB
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Climate change can reasonably be expected to increase the frequency and intensity of a variety of potentially disruptive environmental events--slowly at first, but then more quickly. It is prudent to expect to be surprised by the way in which these events may cascade, or have far-reaching effects. During the coming decade, certain climate-related events will produce consequences that exceed the capacity of the affected societies or global systems to manage; these may have global security implications. Although focused on events outside the United States, Climate and Social Stress: Implications for Security Analysis recommends a range of research and policy actions to create a whole-of-government approach to increasing understanding of complex and contingent connections between climate and security, and to inform choices about adapting to and reducing vulnerability to climate change.

The Transport System And Transport Policy

Author: Bert van Wee
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN: 0857936905
Size: 77.43 MB
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ÔThis very interesting book provides an excellent multi-disciplinary introduction into the functioning of transport systems and the interaction with their environments.Õ Ð Erik Verhoef, VU University Amsterdam, The Netherlands ÔThe editors of this important book have clearly identified that few writings on transport treat the transport system as a whole. Implicit in this is a need for a genuinely multidisciplinary approach. An impressive list of contributors ensures that the book draws on the latest research whilst providing new insights into some of the key challenges facing transport students and researchers, transport providers and policy makers.Õ Ð Roger Vickerman, University of Kent, UK ÔSince ancient times transportation has brought our world together. But the need for connectivity and accessibility in a spatially differentiated world has prompted the emergence of very complex transportation systems. This book offers a fresh and operational contribution to a better understanding of the complexity and manageability of a mobile world, by addressing in a balanced way both conceptual and applied or policy aspects of modern transportation systems.Õ Ð Peter Nijkamp, Free University of Amsterdam, The Netherlands Transport impacts on people and businesses in many different ways, and presents some of the key problems that decision-makers need to address. This comprehensive textbook introduces the transport system in a holistic and multidisciplinary way, bringing together the myriad components of transport. This textbook is written for an international readership of undergraduate and postgraduate students in transport and related subjects, as well as for professionals and policy decision-makers across both public and private sectors. Key features include: ¥ Discussion of the importance of transport accessibility and the impacts of transport on the environment and safety ¥ Policy issues relating to all of the discussed issues and prescribed future options. ¥ Transport evaluation methods and modelling approaches. ¥ Examples to highlight the linkages between components of the transport system Ð for example infrastructures, land-use, vehicle technologies Ð and the relevance of these linkages for decision making.

International Political Economy In Context

Author: Andrew Sobel
Publisher: CQ Press
ISBN: 1608717119
Size: 55.47 MB
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Although many international political economy texts offer good descriptions of what events have occurred in global economic and political relations, they make little attempt to develop explicit theoretical frameworks explaining why. Andrew SobelÆs International Political Economy in Context: Individual Choices, Global Effects takes a micro approach to international political economy that considers the fact that individualsùnot nationsùmake choices. Grounding policy choices in the competitive environs of domestic politics and decision-making processes, Sobel illustrates how policymakers choose among alternatives, settling on those that are most in sync with their self-interest. The book is structured to build studentsÆ skills for a sophisticated understanding of how and why events unfold in the international political economy. Students become versed in the primary assumptions and structural/macro conditions of economic and political geography in the global arena. An examination of micro-level conditions and mechanisms introduces the factors that influence political and economic outcomes. Students are then able to use those primary assumptions and micro-level arrangements to make sense of past and present changes in the global political economy. Those familiar with SobelÆs first volume, Political Economy and Global Affairs, will easily find their way through this new book. Anyone looking for a compelling, accessible, and fully integrated rational choice perspective on international political economy will find it here.