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Experts In Uncertainty

Author: Roger M. Cooke
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 9780195362374
Size: 16.17 MB
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This book is an extensive survey and critical examination of the literature on the use of expert opinion in scientific inquiry and policy making. The elicitation, representation, and use of expert opinion is increasingly important for two reasons: advancing technology leads to more and more complex decision problems, and technologists are turning in greater numbers to "expert systems" and other similar artifacts of artificial intelligence. Cooke here considers how expert opinion is being used today, how an expert's uncertainty is or should be represented, how people do or should reason with uncertainty, how the quality and usefulness of expert opinion can be assessed, and how the views of several experts might be combined. He argues for the importance of developing practical models with a transparent mathematic foundation for the use of expert opinion in science, and presents three tested models, termed "classical," "Bayesian," and "psychological scaling." Detailed case studies illustrate how they can be applied to a diversity of real problems in engineering and planning.

Safety Reliability Risk And Life Cycle Performance Of Structures And Infrastructures

Author: George Deodatis
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1315884887
Size: 43.27 MB
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Safety, Reliability, Risk and Life-Cycle Performance of Structures and Infrastructures contains the plenary lectures and papers presented at the 11th International Conference on STRUCTURAL SAFETY AND RELIABILITY (ICOSSAR2013, New York, NY, USA, 16-20 June 2013), and covers major aspects of safety, reliability, risk and life-cycle performance of structures and infrastructures, with special focus on advanced technologies, analytical and computational methods of risk analysis, probability-based design and regulations, smart systems and materials, life-cycle cost analysis, damage assessment, social aspects, urban planning, and industrial applications. Emerging concepts as well as state-of-the-art and novel applications of reliability principles in all types of structural systems and mechanical components are included. Civil, marine, mechanical, transportation, nuclear and aerospace applications are discussed. The unique knowledge, ideas and insights make this set of a book of abstracts and searchable, full paper USBdevice must-have literature for researchers and practitioners involved with safety, reliability, risk and life-cycle performance of structures and infrastructures.


Author: Luis C. Dias
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319650521
Size: 41.89 MB
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This book is about elicitation: the facilitation of the quantitative expression of subjective judgement about matters of fact, interacting with subject experts, or about matters of value, interacting with decision makers or stakeholders. It offers an integrated presentation of procedures and processes that allow analysts and experts to think clearly about numbers, particularly the inputs for decision support systems and models. This presentation encompasses research originating in the communities of structured probability elicitation/calibration and multi-criteria decision analysis, often unaware of each other’s developments. Chapters 2 through 9 focus on processes to elicit uncertainty from experts, including the Classical Method for aggregating judgements from multiple experts concerning probability distributions; the issue of validation in the Classical Method; the Sheffield elicitation framework; the IDEA protocol; approaches following the Bayesian perspective; the main elements of structured expert processes for dependence elicitation; and how mathematical methods can incorporate correlations between experts. Chapters 10 through 14 focus on processes to elicit preferences from stakeholders or decision makers, including two chapters on problems under uncertainty (utility functions), and three chapters that address elicitation of preferences independently of, or in absence of, any uncertainty elicitation (value functions and ELECTRE). Two chapters then focus on cross-cutting issues for elicitation of uncertainties and elicitation of preferences: biases and selection of experts. Finally, the last group of chapters illustrates how some of the presented approaches are applied in practice, including a food security case in the UK; expert elicitation in health care decision making; an expert judgement based method to elicit nuclear threat risks in US ports; risk assessment in a pulp and paper manufacturer in the Nordic countries; and elicitation of preferences for crop planning in a Greek region.

Extremal Fuzzy Dynamic Systems

Author: Gia Sirbiladze
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1461442494
Size: 38.24 MB
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Presenting a fresh approach to the fuzzy modeling of dynamic processes in systems science research, this book’s coverage of both theory and key applications incorporates time as a source of fuzziness and treats applied EFD systems such as software libraries.

Probabilistic Safety Assessment And Management 96

Author: Pietro C. Cacciabue
Publisher: Springer Verlag
ISBN: 9783540760511
Size: 13.96 MB
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This book is a collection of papers presented at ESREL '96 - PSAM III in June 1996. The conference was aimed at enhancing communication, sharing experiences and integrating approaches, not only among various industries but at a world wide level by bring ing together leading experts from all over the world. Decision making and more specifically risk management and risk based regulation are the main themes of the papers presented in this book. It covers both well established practices and open issues in the area of Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management and identifies the areas that have reached maturity and those that need more research.