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Extremes In A Changing Climate

Author: Amir AghaKouchak
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 940074479X
Size: 74.59 MB
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This book provides a collection of the state-of-the-art methodologies and approaches suggested for detecting extremes, trend analysis, accounting for nonstationarities, and uncertainties associated with extreme value analysis in a changing climate. This volume is designed so that it can be used as the primary reference on the available methodologies for analysis of climate extremes. Furthermore, the book addresses current hydrometeorologic global data sets and their applications for global scale analysis of extremes. While the main objective is to deliver recent theoretical concepts, several case studies on extreme climate conditions are provided. Audience The book is suitable for teaching in graduate courses in the disciplines of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Earth System Science, Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences.

Managing The Risks Of Extreme Events And Disasters To Advance Climate Change Adaptation

Author: Christopher B. Field
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1107380103
Size: 55.72 MB
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This Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report (IPCC-SREX) explores the challenge of understanding and managing the risks of climate extremes to advance climate change adaptation. Extreme weather and climate events, interacting with exposed and vulnerable human and natural systems, can lead to disasters. Changes in the frequency and severity of the physical events affect disaster risk, but so do the spatially diverse and temporally dynamic patterns of exposure and vulnerability. Some types of extreme weather and climate events have increased in frequency or magnitude, but populations and assets at risk have also increased, with consequences for disaster risk. Opportunities for managing risks of weather- and climate-related disasters exist or can be developed at any scale, local to international. Prepared following strict IPCC procedures, SREX is an invaluable assessment for anyone interested in climate extremes, environmental disasters and adaptation to climate change, including policymakers, the private sector and academic researchers.

Confronting Climate Uncertainty In Water Resources Planning And Project Design

Author: Patrick A. Ray
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 1464804788
Size: 43.48 MB
Format: PDF, ePub
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Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design describes an approach to facing two fundamental and unavoidable issues brought about by climate change uncertainty in water resources planning and project design. The first is a risk assessment problem. The second relates to risk management. This book provides background on the risks relevant in water systems planning, the different approaches to scenario definition in water system planning, and an introduction to the decision-scaling methodology upon which the decision tree is based. The decision tree is described as a scientifically defensible, repeatable, direct and clear method for demonstrating the robustness of a project to climate change. While applicable to all water resources projects, it allocates effort to projects in a way that is consistent with their potential sensitivity to climate risk. The process was designed to be hierarchical, with different stages or phases of analysis triggered based on the findings of the previous phase. An application example is provided followed by a descriptions of some of the tools available for decision making under uncertainty and methods available for climate risk management. The tool was designed for the World Bank but can be applicable in other scenarios where similar challenges arise.

Climate Time Series Analysis

Author: Manfred Mudelsee
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9789048194827
Size: 68.94 MB
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Climate is a paradigm of a complex system. Analysing climate data is an exciting challenge, which is increased by non-normal distributional shape, serial dependence, uneven spacing and timescale uncertainties. This book presents bootstrap resampling as a computing-intensive method able to meet the challenge. It shows the bootstrap to perform reliably in the most important statistical estimation techniques: regression, spectral analysis, extreme values and correlation. This book is written for climatologists and applied statisticians. It explains step by step the bootstrap algorithms (including novel adaptions) and methods for confidence interval construction. It tests the accuracy of the algorithms by means of Monte Carlo experiments. It analyses a large array of climate time series, giving a detailed account on the data and the associated climatological questions. This makes the book self-contained for graduate students and researchers.

Attribution Of Extreme Weather Events In The Context Of Climate Change

Author: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309380979
Size: 32.91 MB
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As climate has warmed over recent years, a new pattern of more frequent and more intense weather events has unfolded across the globe. Climate models simulate such changes in extreme events, and some of the reasons for the changes are well understood. Warming increases the likelihood of extremely hot days and nights, favors increased atmospheric moisture that may result in more frequent heavy rainfall and snowfall, and leads to evaporation that can exacerbate droughts. Even with evidence of these broad trends, scientists cautioned in the past that individual weather events couldn't be attributed to climate change. Now, with advances in understanding the climate science behind extreme events and the science of extreme event attribution, such blanket statements may not be accurate. The relatively young science of extreme event attribution seeks to tease out the influence of human-cause climate change from other factors, such as natural sources of variability like El Niño, as contributors to individual extreme events. Event attribution can answer questions about how much climate change influenced the probability or intensity of a specific type of weather event. As event attribution capabilities improve, they could help inform choices about assessing and managing risk, and in guiding climate adaptation strategies. This report examines the current state of science of extreme weather attribution, and identifies ways to move the science forward to improve attribution capabilities.

Integrated Water Resources Management In A Changing World

Author: Dietrich Borchardt
Publisher: IWA Publishing
ISBN: 178040526X
Size: 41.90 MB
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This volume presents a selection of the main contributions made to the international conference on Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) entitled ‘Management of Water in a Changing World: Lessons Learnt and Innovative Perspectives’ that was held from 12 to 13 October 2011 in Dresden, Germany. The book summarise the main messages issuing from the conference and contains selected papers which were presented during the conference, either as keynote lectures in plenary sessions or as submitted papers in one of the thematic sessions. The key themes of the book are: Water resources in changing environments Groundwater management Technologies and implementation Water management indicators at different scales Information and decision support systems Water governance: actors and institutions The book provides an overview on important issues concerning the conceptual framework of integrated water resources management (IWRM). All presentations and abstracts and the corresponding PowerPoint presentations as well as a video recording of the panel discussion are available at the conference website http://www.bmbf.iwrm2011.de; Readers are encouraged to complete their review of the conference and its messages by consulting this interesting on-line source of accompanying scientific material.

Managing Ocean Environments In A Changing Climate

Author: Kevin J. Noone
Publisher: Newnes
ISBN: 0124076610
Size: 43.43 MB
Format: PDF, Kindle
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Managing Ocean Environments in a Changing Climate summarizes the current state of several threats to the global oceans. What distinguishes this book most from previous works is that this book begins with a holistic, global-scale focus for the first several chapters and then provides an example of how this approach can be applied on a regional scale, for the Pacific region. Previous works usually have compiled local studies, which are essentially impossible to properly integrate to the global scale. The editors have engaged leading scientists in a number of areas, such as fisheries and marine ecosystems, ocean chemistry, marine biogeochemical cycling, oceans and climate change, and economics, to examine the threats to the oceans both individually and collectively, provide gross estimates of the economic and societal impacts of these threats, and deliver high-level recommendations. Nominated for a Katerva Award in 2012 in the Economy category State of the science reviews by known marine experts provide a concise, readable presentation written at a level for managers and students Links environmental and economic aspects of ocean threats and provides an economic analysis of action versus inaction Provides recommendations for stakeholders to help stimulate the development of policies that would help move toward sustainable use of marine resources and services

Climate Change As A Security Risk

Author: Hans Joachim Schellnhuber
Publisher: Earthscan
ISBN: 1849775931
Size: 48.67 MB
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Without resolute counteraction, climate change will overstretch many societies' adaptive capacities within the coming decades. This could result in destabilization and violence, jeopardizing national and international security to a new degree. However, climate change could also unite the international community. This is provided that we recognize climate change as a threat to humankind and so set the course for adopting a dynamic and globally coordinated climate policy. If we fail to do so, climate change will draw ever-deeper lines of division and conflict in international relations, triggering numerous conflicts between and within countries over the distribution of resources - especially water and land, and over the management of migration, or over compensation payments between the countries mainly responsible for climate change and those countries most affected by its destructive effects. With Climate Change as a Security Risk, WBGU has compiled a flagship report on an issue that quite rightly is rising rapidly up the international political agenda. The authors pull no punches on the likelihood of increasing tensions and conflicts in a climatically constrained world and spotlight places where possible conflicts may flare up in the 21st century unless climate change is checked. The report makes it clear that climate policy is preventative security policy.

Extremes In Nature

Author: Gianfausto Salvadori
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1402044151
Size: 56.19 MB
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This book is about the theoretical and practical aspects of the statistics of Extreme Events in Nature. Most importantly, this is the first text in which Copulas are introduced and used in Geophysics. Several topics are fully original, and show how standard models and calculations can be improved by exploiting the opportunities offered by Copulas. In addition, new quantities useful for design and risk assessment are introduced.