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Foresight

Author: Denis Loveridge
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1134151179
Size: 70.12 MB
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Since the early 1990s interest in foresight has undergone one of its periodic resurgences and has led to a rapid growth in formal foresight studies backed by governments and transnational institutions, including many from the United Nations. However, texts that counterbalance in depth practical experience with an exposition and integration of the many theoretical strands that underpin the art and theory of foresight are rare. Foresight: The Art and Science of Anticipating the Future provides entrepreneurs, business leaders, investors, inventors, scientists, politicians, and many others with a succinct, integrated guide to understanding foresight studies and using them as means for strategy development. The text dispels the belief that anticipations are 'mere guesswork', and conveys the depth of thought needed, implicitly or explicitly, to understand human foresight. The book examines: The role of foresight and its institutional counterpart in the modern world The epistemology underlying foresight The need to extend foresight activity into wider spheres, including sustainable development The role that foresight plays in planning processes (including scenario planning) Much of the material in the book is based upon the internationally known foresight course at the Manchester Business School's Institute of Innovation Research (MIoIR) formerly PREST, which the author developed and directed from1999 to 2003.

Anticipating Future Innovation Pathways Through Large Data Analysis

Author: Tugrul U. Daim
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319390562
Size: 11.39 MB
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This book aims to identify promising future developmental opportunities and applications for Tech Mining. Specifically, the enclosed contributions will pursue three converging themes: The increasing availability of electronic text data resources relating to Science, Technology and Innovation (ST&I). The multiple methods that are able to treat this data effectively and incorporate means to tap into human expertise and interests. Translating those analyses to provide useful intelligence on likely future developments of particular emerging S&T targets. Tech Mining can be defined as text analyses of ST&I information resources to generate Competitive Technical Intelligence (CTI). It combines bibliometrics and advanced text analytic, drawing on specialized knowledge pertaining to ST&I. Tech Mining may also be viewed as a special form of “Big Data” analytics because it searches on a target emerging technology (or key organization) of interest in global databases. One then downloads, typically, thousands of field-structured text records (usually abstracts), and analyses those for useful CTI. Forecasting Innovation Pathways (FIP) is a methodology drawing on Tech Mining plus additional steps to elicit stakeholder and expert knowledge to link recent ST&I activity to likely future development. A decade ago, we demeaned Management of Technology (MOT) as somewhat self-satisfied and ignorant. Most technology managers relied overwhelmingly on casual human judgment, largely oblivious of the potential of empirical analyses to inform R&D management and science policy. CTI, Tech Mining, and FIP are changing that. The accumulation of Tech Mining research over the past decade offers a rich resource of means to get at emerging technology developments and organizational networks to date. Efforts to bridge from those recent histories of development to project likely FIP, however, prove considerably harder. One focus of this volume is to extend the repertoire of information resources; that will enrich FIP. Featuring cases of novel approaches and applications of Tech Mining and FIP, this volume will present frontier advances in ST&I text analytics that will be of interest to students, researchers, practitioners, scholars and policy makers in the fields of R&D planning, technology management, science policy and innovation strategy.

Corporate Foresight

Author: Alberto F. De Toni
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1315411555
Size: 29.59 MB
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This book illustrates how to anticipate the future using more than the traditional predictive models (forecasting) based on the forward projection of past experiences, and moving into more advanced methods of anticipation logic (foresight) to build probable scenarios based on weak signals, emerging trends, coexisting presents and potential paths of evolution. Utilizing a helpful, four-part structure, the authors indicate how corporate foresight is fundamental to interpret and lead change, focusing on the two cornerstones of organization and management. They advocate the separation of Research (oriented to the market of tomorrow) from Development (oriented to the market of today), the establishment of a Foresight unit and the concentration of research activities mainly on the acquisition and recombination of external know-how. After an overview of state-of-the-art literature on forecasting methods, they further propose the implementation of a "future coverage" methodology, which will enable companies to measure and verify the consistency between trends, strategic vision and offered products. These organizational and managing tools are then tested in a case study: the Italian company Eurotech SpA, a leader in the ICT sector. A useful resource for both managers and researchers, the book will help readers gain the tools necessary to tackle change and navigate complexity in organizations.

Introduction To Anticipation Studies

Author: Roberto Poli
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319630237
Size: 50.19 MB
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This book presents the theory of anticipation, and establishes anticipation of the future as a legitimate topic of research. It examines anticipatory behavior, i.e. a behavior that ‘uses’ the future in its actual decisional process. The book shows that anticipation violates neither the ontological order of time nor causation. It explores the question of how different kinds of systems anticipate, and examines the risks and uses of such anticipatory practices. The book first summarizes the research on anticipation conducted within a range of different disciplines, and describes the connection between the anticipatory point of view and futures studies. Following that, its chapters on Wholes, Time and Emergence, make explicit the ontological framework within which anticipation finds its place. It then goes on to discuss Systems, Complexity, and the Modeling Relation, and provides the scientific background supporting anticipation. It restricts formal technicalities to one chapter, and presents those technicalities twice, in formal and plain words to advance understanding. The final chapter shows that all the threads presented in the previous chapters naturally converge toward what has come to be called “Discipline of Anticipation”

Learning From The Future

Author: Liam Fahey
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 9780471303527
Size: 44.93 MB
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"Scenarios are now a part of every successful manager′s toolkit. This book is the first comprehensive guide to the latest developments in scenario thinking written by today′s leading practitioners in the field." –Napier Collyns, a pioneer of scenario planning at Dutch/Shell now Managing Director, Gloal Business Network (GBN) "In twenty years of helping companies create and plan for their futures, I have never come across a book that dealt with the use of scenario–based planning as comprehensively as this one." –David Kelley CEO, IDEO Product Development the creators of the Apple Mouse "This book is the greatest reference today on scenario planning–the preeminent tool for those who believe that the future belongs to those with the imagination to create it. The combination of scenario planning and strategy formulation can be a wondrous right brain process that galvanizes teams with a compelling vision and common purpose." –David E. Schnedler Director, Corporate Planning Sun Microsystems, Inc. "Organizations must create intellectual and organizational tension around distinctly different views of the future. Learning from the Future demonstrates why scenarios are ideally suited to generate such tension and how to use scenario learning as a steppingstone to superior strategies." –Richard Pascale, Associate Fellow of Oxford University and author of Managing on the Edge: How the Smartest Companies Use Conflict to Stay Ahead "An invaluable guide to the mind–stretching benefits of scenarios that are fully embedded in the strategic thinking process. It should be required reading for any management team embarking on scenario development so they can realize the benefits and evade the pitfalls." –George Day, Geoffrey T. Boisi Professor and Director of the Huntsman Center for Global Competition and Innovation Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania

Foresight And Innovation

Author: E. Hiltunen
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 1137337702
Size: 80.35 MB
Format: PDF
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Foresight and Innovation is a guide for readers that are interested about the future. The book introduces a concept of futurist thinking, which includes anticipating, innovating and communicating about the futures. These concepts show how various organizations, all over the world are thinking, communicating and creating a better future.

Managing The Future

Author: Haridimos Tsoukas
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1405142391
Size: 32.59 MB
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In this book, leading authors explore ways in which organizations can develop their ability to manage the future. An exploration of the ways in which organizations can develop their ability to manage the future. Consists of ten papers written by authors from both sides of the Atlantic and from Asia, all of whom are distinguished scholars in the fields of strategy or organizational learning. Addresses key questions about how organizational foresight can be conceptualized and developed, and the extent to which it is possible. The papers are prefaced by a foreword from Spyros Makridakis and an introduction from the editors. Helps to shape a new research agenda, and so will be of interest to academics, as well as to students and practitioners.

Future Savvy

Author: Adam Gordon
Publisher: AMACOM Div American Mgmt Assn
ISBN: 9780814412862
Size: 68.62 MB
Format: PDF
View: 2008
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In order to succeed in their industries, decision-makers today need to anticipate the future outcomes not only in their own industry but also in society and technology as well. The better their view of the future, the better their decisions--and the bigger their profits–will be. Future Savvy is a hands-on, how-to book on evaluating the business, social, and technology forecasts that appear in everyday communications such as newspapers and business magazines, as well as in specialized sources like government and think-tank forecasts, consultant reports, and stock-market guides. Futures analyst Adam Gordon has spent his career deciphering changes and trends in a variety of industries. Now, he shows business leaders how to gain a clearer view of the future, as well as: • Recognize potential trends and outcomes more effectively • Discount poor and biased forecasts more confidently • Anticipate relevant opportunities and potential threats earlier

Strategic Foresight

Author: A. Marcus
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 0230622658
Size: 43.12 MB
Format: PDF
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This book provides students and line managers in organizations with the means to create better scenarios and to use them to create winning business strategies. The book covers scenarios such as: economic outlooks; political environments; acquisitions; downsizing, and more.

Anticipate

Author: Rob-Jan Jong
Publisher: AMACOM
ISBN: 0814449085
Size: 37.38 MB
Format: PDF, Kindle
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Business schools, leadership gurus, and strategy guides agree-leaders must have a vision. But the sad truth is that most don't...or at least not one that compels, inspires, and energizes their people. How can something so essential be practiced so little in real life? Vision may sound like a rare quality, unattainable by all except a select few-but nothing could be further from the truth. Anyone can expand their visionary capacity. You just need to learn how. In Anticipate, strategy and leadership expert Rob-Jan de Jong explains that to develop vision you must sharpen two key skills. The first is the ability to see things early-spotting the first hints of change on the horizon. The second is the power to connect the dots-turning those clues into a gripping story about the future of your organization and industry. Packed with stories and practices, Anticipate provides proven techniques for looking ahead and exploring many plausible futures-including the author's trademarked FuturePriming process, which helps distinguish signal from noise. You will discover how to: Tap into your imagination and open yourself to the unconventional * Become better at seeing things early * Frame the big-picture view that provides direction for the future * Communicate your vision in a way that engages others and provokes action * And more When you anticipate change before your competitors, you create enormous strategic advantage. That's what visionaries do...and now so can you.