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Foundations Of Prediction Markets

Author: Shu-Heng Chen
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 9784431552291
Size: 70.82 MB
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A prediction market is designed to trade and predict future events. This book provides a comprehensive and multidisciplinary treatment of the prediction market, explaining what it is, how it works, and why it may fail, from the theoretical, computational, and statistical (or machine learning) perspectives. The book begins with the theoretical aspect by reviewing Friedrich Hayek’s work on markets, which he viewed as discovery processes, and proceeds to experimental economics to examine the Hayek hypothesis by using human-subject experiments, finally moving to the modeling work. In addition to the conventional analytical models based on neoclassical economics, agent-based models of prediction markets are introduced. The use of agent-based models makes it possible to address the following four elements, which are difficult to tackle with analytical models: space, networks, traders’ behavior, and market designs. Agent-based simulation of the prediction market augmented with these four elements enables an examination of the effects of these elements on the prediction market from the computational aspect and hence tests the Hayek hypothesis on the basis of diverse institutional and individual characteristics. The empirical part of the book is based mainly on data from xFuture, currently the largest prediction market in Asia. This dataset includes 5.9 million trades from 170,000 members distributed over 128 countries. Forty variables are abstracted from the dataset and categorized into five groups to build empirical models to help evaluate or predict the performance of prediction markets. In addition to the linear models, complex thinking prompts the use of artificial intelligence or machine learning tools to develop nonlinear models. The system thus created allows an examination of how the performance of prediction markets can be affected by the complexity of events, the heterogeneity of agents’ intelligence and beliefs, and the degrees of manipulation.

Prediction Markets

Author: Stefan Luckner
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3834970859
Size: 65.98 MB
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Accurate predictions are essential in many areas such as corporate decision making, weather forecasting and technology forecasting. Prediction markets help to aggregate information and gain a better understanding of the future by leveraging the wisdom of the crowds. Trading prices in prediction markets thus reflect the traders’ aggregated expectations on the outcome of uncertain future events and can be used to predict the likelihood of these events. This book demonstrates that markets are accurate predictors. Results from several empirical studies reported in this work show the importance of designing such markets properly in order to derive valuable predictions. Therefore, the findings are valuable for designing future prediction markets.

Adoption Of Innovation

Author: Alexander Brem
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319145231
Size: 77.11 MB
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This edited volume brings together academics from both innovation and marketing fields to explore the additional value for companies that can be generated with the innovations in marketing and the marketing of innovations. If ideas need to reach the marketplace, then marketing strategies, concepts and tools - such as the continuous development of new product and services - become vital for their success. On the other hand, marketing management is influenced by innovation as illustrated by the way social media and Internet have revolutionized the traditional marketing-mix. Such linkages between innovation and marketing research need to be much stronger as companies have to convince internal and external stakeholders to achieve successful innovation strategies. State-of-the-art research output from different perspectives would suit the needs of a researcher as well as the company CEO alike.

Creating And Capturing Value Through Crowdsourcing

Author: Allan Afuah
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0192548190
Size: 32.86 MB
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Examples of the value that can be created and captured through crowdsourcing go back to at least 1714 when the UK used crowdsourcing to solve the Longitude Problem, obtaining a solution that would enable the UK to become the dominant maritime force of its time. Today, Wikipedia uses crowds to provide entries for the world's largest and free encyclopedia. Partly fueled by the value that can be created and captured through crowdsourcing, interest in researching the phenomenon has been remarkable. Despite this - or perhaps because of it - research into crowdsourcing has been conducted in different research silos, within the fields of management (from strategy to finance to operations to information systems), biology, communications, computer science, economics, political science, among others. In these silos, crowdsourcing takes names such as broadcast search, innovation tournaments, crowdfunding, community innovation, distributed innovation, collective intelligence, open source, crowdpower, and even open innovation. This book aims to assemble chapters from many of these silos, since the ultimate potential of crowdsourcing research is likely to be attained only by bridging them. Chapters provide a systematic overview of the research on crowdsourcing from different fields based on a more encompassing definition of the concept, its difference for innovation, and its value for both private and public sector.

Prediction Markets

Author: Leighton Vaughan Williams
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 113671569X
Size: 73.17 MB
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How does one effectively aggregate disparate pieces of information that are spread among many different individuals? In other words, how does one best access the ‘wisdom of the crowd’? Prediction markets, which are essentially speculative markets created for the purpose of aggregating information and making predictions, offer the answer to this question. The effective use of these markets has the potential not only to help forecast future events on a national and international level, but also to assist companies, for example, in providing improved estimates of the potential market size for a new product idea or the launch date of new products and services. The markets have already been used to forecast uncertain outcomes ranging from influenza to the spread of infectious diseases, to the demand for hospital services, to the box office success of movies, climate change, vote shares and election outcomes, to the probability of meeting project deadlines. The insights gained also have many potentially valuable applications for public policy more generally. These markets offer substantial promise as a tool of information aggregation as well as forecasting, whether alone or as a supplement to other mechanisms like opinion surveys, group deliberations, panels of experts and focus groups. Moreover, they can be applied at a macroeconomic and microeconomic level to yield information that is valuable for government and commercial policy-makers and which can be used for a number of social purposes. This volume of original readings, contributed by many of the leading experts in the field, marks a significant addition to the base of knowledge about this fascinating subject area. The book should be of interest to anyone looking at monetary economics, economic forecasting and microeconomics.

Interpreting Prediction Market Prices As Probabilities

Author: Justin Wolfers
Publisher:
ISBN:
Size: 72.91 MB
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While most empirical analysis of prediction markets treats prices of binary options as predictions of the probability of future events, Manski (2004) has recently argued that there is little existing theory supporting this practice. We provide relevant analytic foundations, describing sufficient conditions under which prediction markets prices correspond with mean beliefs. Beyond these specific sufficient conditions, we show that for a broad class of models prediction market prices are usually close to the mean beliefs of traders. The key parameters driving trading behavior in prediction markets are the degree of risk aversion and the distribution of beliefs, and we provide some novel data on the distribution of beliefs in a couple of interesting contexts. We find that prediction markets prices typically provide useful (albeit sometimes biased) estimates of average beliefs about the probability an event occurs.

Game Theoretic Problems In Network Economics And Mechanism Design Solutions

Author: Y. Narahari
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1848009380
Size: 51.12 MB
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This monograph focuses on exploring game theoretic modeling and mechanism design for problem solving in Internet and network economics. For the first time, the main theoretical issues and applications of mechanism design are bound together in a single text.

Data Mining Foundations And Intelligent Paradigms

Author: Dawn E. Holmes
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3642232418
Size: 59.18 MB
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There are many invaluable books available on data mining theory and applications. However, in compiling a volume titled “DATA MINING: Foundations and Intelligent Paradigms: Volume 2: Core Topics including Statistical, Time-Series and Bayesian Analysis” we wish to introduce some of the latest developments to a broad audience of both specialists and non-specialists in this field.

Micro Markets

Author: Robert A. Schwartz
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 9780470602850
Size: 51.67 MB
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A timely guide that bridges the gap between microeconomic theory and practice through real-world application in the marketplace Understanding how microeconomics affects the marketplace is essential for any investment professional, however most books simply address microeconomics in its pure theory-based form. Micro Markets helps bridge the gap between theory and practice by defining microeconomics in terms of real-world, market applications. This timely guide elucidates basic microeconomic concepts with an emphasis on applicability. It establishes a common application for all of the basic economic concepts that are reviewed, and provides in-depth insights into an industry that is of major economic importance in aggregate, and to most individuals. Utilizes equity market realities to underscore the relevance of economic theory Each chapter includes informative practice problems and power points A companion Workbook, with practice problems and solutions, is also available By taking microeconomic theory and making it applicable to today's marketplace, Micro Markets builds a much-needed bridge between theory and practice.