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From Stalemate To Settlement

Author: Colin P. Clarke
Publisher: Rand Corporation
ISBN: 083308237X
Size: 76.35 MB
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Historical insurgencies that ended in settlement after a stalemate have generally followed a seven-step path. A “master narrative” distilled from these cases could help guide and assess the progress toward a negotiated settlement in Afghanistan.

Deterring Terrorism

Author: Elli Lieberman
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1351999656
Size: 68.14 MB
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This book examines the question of how to deter a non-state terrorist actor. Can terrorism be deterred? This book argues that current research is unable to find strong cases of deterrence success, because it uses a flawed research design which does not capture the longitudinal dynamics of the process. So far, the focus of inquiry has been on the tactical elements of a state’s counterterrorism strategy, instead of the non-state actor’s grand strategies. By studying the campaigns of Hezbollah, the Palestinians, the Irish Republican Army, Chechens, the Kurdistan Workers' Party, and Al-Qaeda/Taliban and ISIS over time, we can see that deterrence strategies that target the cost-benefit calculus of terrorist organizations lead to wars of attrition – which is the non-state organization’s strategy for victory. To escape the attrition trap, the state must undermine the attrition strategy of terrorist organizations by using offensive campaigns that become critical educational moments. The case studies presented here uncover an evolutionary process of learning, leading to strategic deterrence successes. Some terrorist organizations abandoned the use of force altogether, while others abandoned their aspirational goals or resorted to lower levels of violence. These findings should enable policymakers to transition from the failed policy that sought to defeat the Taliban and al-Qaeda in the unending war in Afghanistan to a policy that successfully applies deterrence. This book will be of much interest to students of deterrence theory, terrorism studies, war and conflict studies, and security studies.


Author: Kenneth Katzman
ISBN: 9781497378087
Size: 46.25 MB
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The current international security mission terminates at the end of 2014 and will likely transition to a smaller mission consisting mostly of training the Afghanistan National Security Forces (ANSF). The “residual force” that will likely remain in Afghanistan after 2014 is expected to consist of about 6,000-10,000 U.S. trainers and counterterrorism forces, assisted by about 5,000 partner forces performing similar missions. The U.S. troops that remain after 2014 would do so under a U.S.-Afghanistan security agreement that has been negotiated but which President Hamid Karzai, despite significant Afghan public and elite backing for the agreement, refuses to sign until additional conditions he has set down are met.Fearing instability after 2014, some ethnic and political faction leaders are reviving their militia forces should the international drawdown lead to a major Taliban push to retake power. No matter the size of an international residual force, some in the Administration remain concerned that Afghan stability after 2014 is at risk from weak and corrupt Afghan governance and insurgent safe havens in Pakistan. U.S. and partner country anti-corruption efforts in Afghanistan have yielded few concrete results. An unexpected potential benefit to stability could come from a negotiated settlement between the Afghan government and the Taliban and other insurgent groups. Yet, negotiations have been sporadic, and U.S.-Taliban discussions that were expected to begin after the Taliban opened a political office in Qatar in June 2013 did not materialize. Afghanistan's minorities and women's groups fear that a settlement might produce compromises with the Taliban that erode human rights and ethnic power-sharing.The United States and other donors continue to fund development projects, increasingly delegating project implementation to the Afghan government. U.S. officials assert that Afghanistan might be able to exploit vast mineral and agricultural resources, as well as its potentially significant hydrocarbon resources, to prevent a major economic downturn as international donors scale back their involvement. Even if these efforts succeed, Afghanistan will likely remain dependent on foreign aid indefinitely. The anticipated U.S. aid for FY2014 is over $10 billion, including $7.7 billion to train and equip the ANSF. Administration officials have said that economic aid requests for Afghanistan are likely to continue roughly at recent levels through at least FY2017.

American Negotiating Behavior

Author: Richard H. Solomon
Publisher: US Institute of Peace Press
ISBN: 160127047X
Size: 22.19 MB
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Informed by discussions and interviews with more than fifty seasoned foreign and American negotiators, this landmark study offers a rich and detailed portrait of the negotiating practices of American officials. Including contributions by eleven international experts, i assesses the multiple influences--cultural, institutional, historical, and political--that shape how American policymakers and diplomats approach negotiations with foreign counterparts and highlights behavioral patterns that transcend the actions of individual negotiators and administrations.

Predicting The Soviet Invasion Of Afghanistan

Author: Douglas MacEachin
Publisher: Seltzer Books via PublishDrive
ISBN: 145544698X
Size: 53.96 MB
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Originally published by the CIA, as an unclassified public document. Douglas MacEachin served as CIA's Deputy Director for Intelligence from 1993 to 1995 during his thirty-two year career at CIA. Mr. MacEachin was an officer-in-residence at Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School of Government, from 1995 to 1997, subsequently becoming a senior at the Kennedy School.

Money In The Bank Lessons Learned From Past Counterinsurgency Coin Operations

Author: Angel Rabasa
Publisher: Rand Corporation
ISBN: 0833042831
Size: 36.44 MB
Format: PDF
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Six historic counterinsurgency (COIN) operations are examined to determine which tactics, techniques, and procedures led to success and which to failure. The Philippines, Algeria, Vietnam, El Salvador, Jammu and Kashmir, and Colombia were chosen for their varied characteristics relating to geography, historical era, outcome, type of insurgency faced, and level of U.S. involvement. Future U.S. COIN operations can learn from these past lessons.

Terrorism Inc The Financing Of Terrorism Insurgency And Irregular Warfare

Author: Colin P. Clarke Ph.D.
Publisher: ABC-CLIO
ISBN: 1440831041
Size: 61.11 MB
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This in-depth, historical analysis of terrorism investigates the major funding streams of terrorists, insurgents, guerrillas, warlords, militias, and criminal organizations throughout the world as well as the efforts of the international community to thwart their efforts. • Examines the financing of major terrorist organizations such as ISIS, Al Qaeda, Hamas, Hezbollah, the Taliban, and other significant groups • Features maps of key regions and graphs comparing funding streams of various groups • Includes information derived from interviews with expert threat finance practitioners, academics, scholars, and policy professionals • Provides a chronology of critical events

Locals Rule

Author: Austin G. Long
Publisher: Rand Corporation
ISBN: 9780833076595
Size: 72.93 MB
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Analyzes the use and management of local defense forces in eight major counterinsurgencies from 1945 to the present‹Indochina, Algeria, South Vietnam, Oman, El Salvador, Southern Lebanon, Afghanistan, and Iraq‹in order to inform U.S. and allied operations in Afghanistan as well as other current or future conflicts.

Victory Has A Thousand Fathers

Author: Christopher Paul
Publisher: Rand Corporation
ISBN: 0833050788
Size: 29.90 MB
Format: PDF
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An examination of approaches to counterinsurgency from 30 recent resolved campaigns reveals that good COIN practices tend to "run in packs" and that the balance of selected good and bad practices perfectly predicts the outcome of a conflict.


Author: G. R. Berridge
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 1137445521
Size: 68.72 MB
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Fully revised and updated, this comprehensive guide to diplomacy explores the art of negotiating international agreements and the channels through which such activities occur when states are in diplomatic relations, and when they are not. This new edition includes chapters on secret intelligence and economic and commercial diplomacy.