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Info Gap Decision Theory

Author: Yakov Ben-Haim
Publisher: Elsevier
ISBN: 9780080465708
Size: 18.36 MB
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Everyone makes decisions, but not everyone is a decision analyst. A decision analyst uses quantitative models and computational methods to formulate decision algorithms, assess decision performance, identify and evaluate options, determine trade-offs and risks, evaluate strategies for investigation, and so on. Info-Gap Decision Theory is written for decision analysts. The term "decision analyst" covers an extremely broad range of practitioners. Virtually all engineers involved in design (of buildings, machines, processes, etc.) or analysis (of safety, reliability, feasibility, etc.) are decision analysts, usually without calling themselves by this name. In addition to engineers, decision analysts work in planning offices for public agencies, in project management consultancies, they are engaged in manufacturing process planning and control, in financial planning and economic analysis, in decision support for medical or technological diagnosis, and so on and on. Decision analysts provide quantitative support for the decision-making process in all areas where systematic decisions are made. This second edition entails changes of several sorts. First, info-gap theory has found application in several new areas - especially biological conservation, economic policy formulation, preparedness against terrorism, and medical decision-making. Pertinent new examples have been included. Second, the combination of info-gap analysis with probabilistic decision algorithms has found wide application. Consequently "hybrid" models of uncertainty, which were treated exclusively in a separate chapter in the previous edition, now appear throughout the book as well as in a separate chapter. Finally, info-gap explanations of robust-satisficing behavior, and especially the Ellsberg and Allais "paradoxes", are discussed in a new chapter together with a theorem indicating when robust-satisficing will have greater probability of success than direct optimizing with uncertain models. New theory developed systematically Many examples from diverse disciplines Realistic representation of severe uncertainty Multi-faceted approach to risk Quantitative model-based decision theory

Info Gap Economics

Author: Y. Ben-Haim
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 0230277322
Size: 66.98 MB
Format: PDF
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This book is a product of applying info-gap decision theory to policy formulation and evaluation in monetary economics and related domains. Info-gap theory has been applied to planning and decision problems in many areas, including engineering, biological conservation, project management, economics, medicine, homeland security, and more.

Model Validation And Uncertainty Quantification Volume 3

Author: Robert Barthorpe
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319548581
Size: 38.75 MB
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Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantification, Volume 3: Proceedings of the 35th IMAC, A Conference and Exposition on Structural Dynamics, 2017, the third volume of ten from the Conference brings together contributions to this important area of research and engineering. The collection presents early findings and case studies on fundamental and applied aspects of Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantification, including papers on: Uncertainty Quantification in Material Models Uncertainty Propagation in Structural Dynamics Practical Applications of MVUQ Advances in Model Validation & Uncertainty Quantification: Model Updating Model Validation & Uncertainty Quantification: Industrial Applications Controlling Uncertainty Uncertainty in Early Stage Design Modeling of Musical Instruments Overview of Model Validation and Uncertainty

Info Gap Economics

Author: Y. Ben-Haim
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 0230277322
Size: 12.92 MB
Format: PDF, ePub, Mobi
View: 6559
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This book is a product of applying info-gap decision theory to policy formulation and evaluation in monetary economics and related domains. Info-gap theory has been applied to planning and decision problems in many areas, including engineering, biological conservation, project management, economics, medicine, homeland security, and more.

Structural Design Optimization Considering Uncertainties

Author: Yannis Tsompanakis
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 9780203938522
Size: 12.48 MB
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Uncertainties play a dominant role in the design and optimization of structures and infrastructures. In optimum design of structural systems due to variations of the material, manufacturing variations, variations of the external loads and modelling uncertainty, the parameters of a structure, a structural system and its environment are not given, fixed coefficients, but random variables with a certain probability distribution. The increasing necessity to solve complex problems in Structural Optimization, Structural Reliability and Probabilistic Mechanics, requires the development of new ideas, innovative methods and numerical tools for providing accurate numerical solutions in affordable computing times. This book presents the latest findings on structural optimization considering uncertainties. It contains selected contributions dealing with the use of probabilistic methods for the optimal design of different types of structures and various considerations of uncertainties. The first part is focused on reliability-based design optimization and the second part on robust design optimization. Comprising twenty-one, self-contained chapters by prominent authors in the field, it forms a complete collection of state-of-the-art theoretical advances and applications in the fields of structural optimization, structural reliability, and probabilistic computational mechanics. It is recommended to researchers, engineers, and students in civil, mechanical, naval and aerospace engineering and to professionals working on complicated costs-effective design problems.

Dynamic Programming

Author: Moshe Sniedovich
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 9781420014631
Size: 52.25 MB
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Incorporating a number of the author’s recent ideas and examples, Dynamic Programming: Foundations and Principles, Second Edition presents a comprehensive and rigorous treatment of dynamic programming. The author emphasizes the crucial role that modeling plays in understanding this area. He also shows how Dijkstra’s algorithm is an excellent example of a dynamic programming algorithm, despite the impression given by the computer science literature. New to the Second Edition Expanded discussions of sequential decision models and the role of the state variable in modeling A new chapter on forward dynamic programming models A new chapter on the Push method that gives a dynamic programming perspective on Dijkstra’s algorithm for the shortest path problem A new appendix on the Corridor method Taking into account recent developments in dynamic programming, this edition continues to provide a systematic, formal outline of Bellman’s approach to dynamic programming. It looks at dynamic programming as a problem-solving methodology, identifying its constituent components and explaining its theoretical basis for tackling problems.

How To Measure Anything

Author: Douglas W. Hubbard
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118539273
Size: 32.52 MB
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Presents advice on making profitable business decisions, describing how to use statistical methods to measure certain aspects of a business that are difficult to quantify, including such things as customer satisfaction, organizational flexibility, and technology risk.

Intelligent Computing In Smart Grid And Electrical Vehicles

Author: Kang Li
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3662452863
Size: 59.19 MB
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This book constitutes the third part of the refereed proceedings of the International Conference on Life System Modeling and Simulation, LSMS 2014, and of the International Conference on Intelligent Computing for Sustainable Energy and Environment, ICSEE 2014, held in Shanghai, China, in September 2014. The 159 revised full papers presented in the three volumes of CCIS 461-463 were carefully reviewed and selected from 572 submissions. The papers of this volume are organized in topical sections on computational intelligence in utilization of clean and renewable energy resources, including fuel cell, hydrogen, solar and winder power, marine and biomass; intelligent modeling, control and supervision for energy saving and pollution reduction; intelligent methods in developing electric vehicles, engines and equipment; intelligent computing and control in distributed power generation systems; intelligent modeling, simulation and control of power electronics and power networks; intelligent road management and electricity marketing strategies; intelligent water treatment and waste management technologies; integration of electric vehicles with smart grid.

Primer On Decision Making

Author: James G. March
Publisher: Simon and Schuster
ISBN: 1439108331
Size: 26.16 MB
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Building on lecture notes from his acclaimed course at Stanford University, James March provides a brilliant introduction to decision making, a central human activity fundamental to individual, group, organizational, and societal life. March draws on research from all the disciplines of social and behavioral science to show decision making in its broadest context. By emphasizing how decisions are actually made -- as opposed to how they should be made -- he enables those involved in the process to understand it both as observers and as participants. March sheds new light on the decision-making process by delineating four deep issues that persistently divide students of decision making: Are decisions based on rational choices involving preferences and expected consequences, or on rules that are appropriate to the identity of the decision maker and the situation? Is decision making a consistent, clear process or one characterized by ambiguity and inconsistency? Is decision making significant primarily for its outcomes, or for the individual and social meanings it creates and sustains? And finally, are the outcomes of decision processes attributable solely to the actions of individuals, or to the combined influence of interacting individuals, organizations, and societies? March's observations on how intelligence is -- or is not -- achieved through decision making, and possibilities for enhancing decision intelligence, are also provided. March explains key concepts of vital importance to students of decision making and decision makers, such as limited rationality, history-dependent rules, and ambiguity, and weaves these ideas into a full depiction of decision making. He includes a discussion of the modern aspects of several classic issues underlying these concepts, such as the relation between reason and ignorance, intentionality and fate, and meaning and interpretation. This valuable textbook by one of the seminal figures in the history of organizational decision making will be required reading for a new generation of scholars, managers, and other decision makers.

Confronting Climate Uncertainty In Water Resources Planning And Project Design

Author: Patrick A. Ray
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 1464804788
Size: 23.87 MB
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Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design describes an approach to facing two fundamental and unavoidable issues brought about by climate change uncertainty in water resources planning and project design. The first is a risk assessment problem. The second relates to risk management. This book provides background on the risks relevant in water systems planning, the different approaches to scenario definition in water system planning, and an introduction to the decision-scaling methodology upon which the decision tree is based. The decision tree is described as a scientifically defensible, repeatable, direct and clear method for demonstrating the robustness of a project to climate change. While applicable to all water resources projects, it allocates effort to projects in a way that is consistent with their potential sensitivity to climate risk. The process was designed to be hierarchical, with different stages or phases of analysis triggered based on the findings of the previous phase. An application example is provided followed by a descriptions of some of the tools available for decision making under uncertainty and methods available for climate risk management. The tool was designed for the World Bank but can be applicable in other scenarios where similar challenges arise.