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Info Gap Decision Theory

Author: Yakov Ben-Haim
Publisher: Elsevier
ISBN: 9780080465708
Size: 30.53 MB
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Everyone makes decisions, but not everyone is a decision analyst. A decision analyst uses quantitative models and computational methods to formulate decision algorithms, assess decision performance, identify and evaluate options, determine trade-offs and risks, evaluate strategies for investigation, and so on. Info-Gap Decision Theory is written for decision analysts. The term "decision analyst" covers an extremely broad range of practitioners. Virtually all engineers involved in design (of buildings, machines, processes, etc.) or analysis (of safety, reliability, feasibility, etc.) are decision analysts, usually without calling themselves by this name. In addition to engineers, decision analysts work in planning offices for public agencies, in project management consultancies, they are engaged in manufacturing process planning and control, in financial planning and economic analysis, in decision support for medical or technological diagnosis, and so on and on. Decision analysts provide quantitative support for the decision-making process in all areas where systematic decisions are made. This second edition entails changes of several sorts. First, info-gap theory has found application in several new areas - especially biological conservation, economic policy formulation, preparedness against terrorism, and medical decision-making. Pertinent new examples have been included. Second, the combination of info-gap analysis with probabilistic decision algorithms has found wide application. Consequently "hybrid" models of uncertainty, which were treated exclusively in a separate chapter in the previous edition, now appear throughout the book as well as in a separate chapter. Finally, info-gap explanations of robust-satisficing behavior, and especially the Ellsberg and Allais "paradoxes", are discussed in a new chapter together with a theorem indicating when robust-satisficing will have greater probability of success than direct optimizing with uncertain models. New theory developed systematically Many examples from diverse disciplines Realistic representation of severe uncertainty Multi-faceted approach to risk Quantitative model-based decision theory

Model Validation And Uncertainty Quantification Volume 3

Author: Robert Barthorpe
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319548581
Size: 28.90 MB
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Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantification, Volume 3: Proceedings of the 35th IMAC, A Conference and Exposition on Structural Dynamics, 2017, the third volume of ten from the Conference brings together contributions to this important area of research and engineering. The collection presents early findings and case studies on fundamental and applied aspects of Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantification, including papers on: Uncertainty Quantification in Material Models Uncertainty Propagation in Structural Dynamics Practical Applications of MVUQ Advances in Model Validation & Uncertainty Quantification: Model Updating Model Validation & Uncertainty Quantification: Industrial Applications Controlling Uncertainty Uncertainty in Early Stage Design Modeling of Musical Instruments Overview of Model Validation and Uncertainty

Structural Design Optimization Considering Uncertainties

Author: Yannis Tsompanakis
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 9780203938522
Size: 13.42 MB
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Uncertainties play a dominant role in the design and optimization of structures and infrastructures. In optimum design of structural systems due to variations of the material, manufacturing variations, variations of the external loads and modelling uncertainty, the parameters of a structure, a structural system and its environment are not given, fixed coefficients, but random variables with a certain probability distribution. The increasing necessity to solve complex problems in Structural Optimization, Structural Reliability and Probabilistic Mechanics, requires the development of new ideas, innovative methods and numerical tools for providing accurate numerical solutions in affordable computing times. This book presents the latest findings on structural optimization considering uncertainties. It contains selected contributions dealing with the use of probabilistic methods for the optimal design of different types of structures and various considerations of uncertainties. The first part is focused on reliability-based design optimization and the second part on robust design optimization. Comprising twenty-one, self-contained chapters by prominent authors in the field, it forms a complete collection of state-of-the-art theoretical advances and applications in the fields of structural optimization, structural reliability, and probabilistic computational mechanics. It is recommended to researchers, engineers, and students in civil, mechanical, naval and aerospace engineering and to professionals working on complicated costs-effective design problems.

Info Gap Economics

Author: Y. Ben-Haim
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 0230277322
Size: 13.67 MB
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This book is a product of applying info-gap decision theory to policy formulation and evaluation in monetary economics and related domains. Info-gap theory has been applied to planning and decision problems in many areas, including engineering, biological conservation, project management, economics, medicine, homeland security, and more.

Engineering Geology And The Environment

Author: G.C. Koukis
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 9789058091970
Size: 52.97 MB
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Composed of the proceedings of a symposium on engineering geology and the environment, held in Athens in June, 1997, this work provides a survey of trends in engineering geology, and an interdisciplinary collaboration with hydrogeology, geochemistry, geomorphology, and soil and rock mechanics.

Interfaces

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ISBN:
Size: 36.78 MB
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Seeks to improve communication between managers and professionals in OR/MS.

Entscheidungsverfahren F R Komplexe Probleme

Author: Rudolf Grünig
Publisher: Springer-Verlag
ISBN: 3642314600
Size: 48.49 MB
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Entscheidungen von großer Tragweite zu treffen, gehört zu den wichtigsten Aufgaben von Führungskräften. Meist handelt es sich um komplexe Entscheidungen. Die Autoren stellen ein Verfahren vor, um komplexe Probleme schrittweise zu bearbeiten. Besonderes Augenmerk gilt der Problemanalyse, der Variantenentwicklung und der Erarbeitung der Entscheidungsmatrix. Die Inhalte sind fundiert und praxisnah dargestellt, für die Neuauflage wurden sie überarbeitet und erweitert. Ein Praxis-Leitfaden, der Managern hilft, die richtigen Entscheidungen zu treffen.

New Approaches To The Economics Of Plant Health

Author: Alfons Oude Lansink
Publisher: Springer Verlag
ISBN:
Size: 39.80 MB
Format: PDF
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Contents include: 'Efficient Inspection Policies', 'Robust Inspection for Invasive Species with a Limited Budget', 'Methods for Modelling Non-Monetary Impacts of Phytosanitary Policies', 'Estimating the Economic Value of Trees at Risk from a Quarantine Disease' and 'Costs and Benefits of Phytosanitary Measures'.