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Judgment And Decision Making

Author: Baruch Fischhoff
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1136497331
Size: 12.98 MB
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Behavioral decision research offers a distinctive approach to understanding and improving decision making. It combines theory and method from multiple disciples (psychology, economics, statistics, decision theory, management science). It employs both empirical methods, to study how decisions are actually made, and analytical ones, to study how decisions should be made and how consequential imperfections are. This book brings together key publications, selected to represent the major topics and approaches used in the field. Put in one place, with integrating commentary, it shows the common elements in a research program that represents the scope of the field, while offering depth in each. Together, they provide a vision for what has become a burgeoning field.

Characterizing And Communicating Uncertainty In The Assessment Of Benefits And Risks Of Pharmaceutical Products

Author: Institute of Medicine
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309310032
Size: 39.81 MB
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Despite the extensive body of evidence that informs regulatory decisions on pharmaceutical products, significant uncertainties persist, including the underlying variability in human biology, factors associated with the chemistry of a drug, and limitations in the research and clinical trial process itself that might limit the generalizability of results. As a result, regulatory reviewers are consistently required to draw conclusions about a drug's safety and efficacy from imperfect data. Efforts are underway within the drug development community to enhance the evaluation and communication of the benefits and risks associated with pharmaceutical products, aimed at increasing the predictability, transparency, and efficiency of pharmaceutical regulatory decision making. Effectively communicating regulatory decisions necessarily includes explanation of the impact of uncertainty on decision making. On February 12 and May 12, 2014, the Institute of Medicine's Forum on Drug Discovery, Development, and Translation held public workshops to advance the development of more systematic and structured approaches to characterize and communicate the sources of uncertainty in the assessment of benefits and risks, and to consider their implications for pharmaceutical regulatory decisions. Workshop presentations and discussions on February 12 were convened to explore the science of identifying and characterizing uncertainty in scientific evidence and approaches to translate uncertainties into decisions that reflect the values of stakeholders. The May 12 workshop presentations and discussions explored tools and approaches to communicating about scientific uncertainties to a range of stakeholders in the drug development process. Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty in the Assessment of Benefits and Risks of Pharmaceutical Products summarizes the presentation and discussion of both events. This report explores potential analytical and communication approaches and identifies key considerations on their development, evaluation, and incorporation into pharmaceutical benefit- risk assessment throughout the entire drug development lifecycle.

Professional Risk And Working With People

Author: David Carson
Publisher: Jessica Kingsley Publishers
ISBN: 1843103893
Size: 52.35 MB
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'Professional Risk and Working with People' provides advice on assessing and managing risks for all those employed to take risks with or on behalf of other people. Examples of risk policies, systems and effective judgement in managing complex risk decisions are included.

The Feeling Of Risk

Author: Paul Slovic
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1136530479
Size: 12.25 MB
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The Feeling of Risk brings together the work of Paul Slovic, one of the world's leading analysts of risk, to describe the extension of risk perception research into the first decade of this new century. In this collection of important works, Paul Slovic explores the conception of 'risk as feelings' and examines the interaction of feeling and cognition in the perception of risk. He also examines the elements of knowledge, cognitive skill, and communication necessary for good decisions in the face of risk. The first section of the book looks at the difficulty of understanding risk without an emotional component, for example that disaster statistics lack emotion and thus fail to convey the true meaning of disasters and fail to motivate proper action to prevent them. The book also highlights other important perspectives on risk arising from cultural worldviews and concerns about specific hazards pertaining to blood transfusion, biotechnology, prescription drugs, smoking, terrorism, and nanotechnology. Following on from The Perception of Risk (2000), this book presents some of the most significant research on risk perception in recent years, providing essential lessons for all those involved in risk perception and communication.

Risk Uncertainty And Rational Action

Author: Carlo Jaeger
Publisher: Earthscan
ISBN: 9781853837623
Size: 27.52 MB
Format: PDF, Kindle
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Risk as we now know it is a wholly new phenomenon, the by-product of our ever more complex and powerful technologies. In business, policy making, and in everyday life, it demands a new way of looking at technological and environmental uncertainty.In this definitive volume, four of the world's leading risk researchers present a fundamental critique of the prevailing approaches to understanding and managing risk - the 'rational actor paradigm'. They show how risk studies must incorporate the competing interests, values, and rationalities of those involved and find a balance of trust and acceptable risk. Their work points to a comprehensive and significant new theory of risk and uncertainty and of the decision making process they require. The implications for social, political, and environmental theory and practice are enormous. Winner of the 2000-2002 Outstanding Publication Award of the Section on Environment and Technology of the American Sociological Association

Risiko

Author: Gerd Gigerenzer
Publisher: C. Bertelsmann Verlag
ISBN: 3641119901
Size: 41.32 MB
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Der neue Bestseller von Gerd Gigerenzer Erinnern wir uns an die weltweite Angst vor der Schweinegrippe, als Experten eine nie dagewesene Pandemie prognostizierten und Impfstoff für Millionen produziert wurde, der später still und heimlich entsorgt werden musste. Für Gerd Gigerenzer ist dies nur ein Beleg unseres irrationalen Umgangs mit Risiken. Und das gilt für Experten ebenso wie für Laien. An Beispielen aus Medizin, Rechtswesen und Finanzwelt erläutert er, wie die Psychologie des Risikos funktioniert, was sie mit unseren entwicklungsgeschichtlich alten Hirnstrukturen zu tun hat und welche Gefahren damit einhergehen. Dabei analysiert er die ungute Rolle von irreführenden Informationen, die von Medien und Fachleuten verbreitet werden. Doch Risiken und Ungewissheiten richtig einzuschätzen kann und sollte jeder lernen. Diese Risikoschulung erprobt Gigerenzer seit vielen Jahren mit verblüffenden Ergebnissen. Sein Fazit: Schon Kinder können lernen, mit Risiken realistisch umzugehen und sich gegen Panikmache wie Verharmlosung zu immunisieren.

Anatomie Des Sozialen Prinzipien Der Analytischen Soziologie

Author: Peter Hedström
Publisher: Springer-Verlag
ISBN: 9783531153971
Size: 57.90 MB
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Einer der weltweit führenden Soziologen, Peter Hedström, zeichnet die Grundlagen einer analytischen Soziologie nach. Er argumentiert für eine erklärende Soziologie, die Theorie und Empirie miteinander verbindet.

The Tolerability Of Risk

Author: Frederic Bouder
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1136551824
Size: 12.41 MB
Format: PDF
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There is an increasing dissatisfaction about how risk is regulated, leading to vivid debates about the use of 'risk assessment' and 'precaution'. As a result, academics, government officials and industry leaders are calling for new approaches and fresh ideas. This book provides a historical and topical perspective on the alternative concept of 'Tolerability of Risk' and its concrete regulatory applications. In the UK, Tolerability of Risk has been developed into a sophisticated framework, particularly within the health and safety sectors. It is expected to guide decision-makers when applying their legal obligation of keeping risks as low as practically reasonable. Could Tolerability of Risk become a wider source of inspiration across the full scope of risk analysis and management? Written by leading academics and risk practitioners from industry and government, The Tolerability of Risk presents a summary of theoretical perspectives on risk approaches, providing a detailed elicitation of the methods and approaches used to build the Tolerability of Risk framework and examining the prospect of universal application of that framework. From nuclear power to environmental pollution, climate change and drug testing, the Tolerability of Risk framework may offer a workable, pragmatic solution for balancing risks against the costs involved in controlling them, as well as developing the institutional capacity to make effective decisions in all jurisdictions worldwide.

Better Integration Of Radiation Protection In Modern Society

Author:
Publisher: Organization for Economic
ISBN:
Size: 33.52 MB
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Addresses the roles of various stakeholders in the decision-making process, and their expectations regarding how a modern system of radiological protection should be integrated within the broader context of risk governance. Case studies are presented to illustrate good practice and as a basis for drawing conclusions regarding general lessons that can be applicable in many different national contexts.