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Modeling The Interplay Between Human Behavior And The Spread Of Infectious Diseases

Author: Piero Manfredi
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1461454743
Size: 63.30 MB
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This volume summarizes the state-of-the-art in the fast growing research area of modeling the influence of information-driven human behavior on the spread and control of infectious diseases. In particular, it features the two main and inter-related “core” topics: behavioral changes in response to global threats, for example, pandemic influenza, and the pseudo-rational opposition to vaccines. In order to make realistic predictions, modelers need to go beyond classical mathematical epidemiology to take these dynamic effects into account. With contributions from experts in this field, the book fills a void in the literature. It goes beyond classical texts, yet preserves the rationale of many of them by sticking to the underlying biology without compromising on scientific rigor. Epidemiologists, theoretical biologists, biophysicists, applied mathematicians, and PhD students will benefit from this book. However, it is also written for Public Health professionals interested in understanding models, and to advanced undergraduate students, since it only requires a working knowledge of mathematical epidemiology.

Human Dynamics Research In Smart And Connected Communities

Author: Shih-Lung Shaw
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319732471
Size: 72.43 MB
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This book addresses how accelerating advances in information and communication technology, mobile technology, and location-aware technology have fundamentally changed the ways how social, political, economic and transportation systems work in today’s globally connected world. It delivers on many exciting research questions related to human dynamics at both disaggregate and aggregate levels that attract the attention of researchers from a wide range of disciplines. Human Dynamics Research involves theoretical perspectives, space-time analytics, modeling human dynamics, urban analytics, social media and big data, travel dynamics, privacy issues, development of smart cities, and problems and prospects of human dynamics research. This book includes contributions on theoretical, technical, or application aspects of human dynamics research from different disciplines. Appealing to researchers, scholars and students across a wide range of topics and disciplines including: urban studies, space-time, mobility and the internet, social media, big data, behavioral geography and spatio-temporal-network visualization, this book offers a glimpse at the cutting edge of research on human dynamics.

Issues And Trends In Interdisciplinary Behavior And Social Science

Author: Ford Lumban Gaol
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1351372696
Size: 54.20 MB
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Issues and Trends in Interdisciplinary Behavior and Social Science contains papers presented at the 6th International Congress on Interdisciplinary Behavior and Social Science 2017 (ICIBSoS 2017), held 16—17 December 2017 in Yogyakarta, Indonesia. The contributions cover every discipline in all fields of social science, and discuss many current trends and issues being faced by 21st century society especially in Southeast Asia. Topics include literature, family culture studies, behavior studies, psychology and human development, religion and values, religious coping, social issues such as urban poverty and juvenile crisis, driving behavior, well-being of women, career women, career performance, job stress, happiness, social adjustment, quality of life among patients, the cosmetics business, etc. The issues are discussed using scientific quantitative or qualitative methods from different academic viewpoints.

A Model Of Reporting And Controlling Outbreaks By Public Health Agencies

Author: Saak, Alexander E.
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Size: 10.18 MB
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When an outbreak of an infectious disease is suspected, a local health agency may notify a state or federal agency and request additional resources to investigate and, if necessary, contain it. However, due to capacity constraints, state and federal health agencies may not be able to grant all such requests, which may give an incentive to local agencies to request help strategically. We study a model of detection and control of an infectious disease by local health agencies in the presence of imperfect information about the likelihood of an outbreak and limited diagnostic capacity. When diagnostic capacity is rationed based on reports of symptoms, the decision to report symptoms or not creates a trade-off. On the one hand, rigorous testing allows one to make an informed disease control decision. On the other hand, it also increases the probability that the disease will spread from an untested area where fewer precautionary measures are taken. Symptoms are overreported (respectively, reported truthfully, or underreported) when the cost of disease control is sufficiently small (respectively, in some intermediate range, or sufficiently large). If the disease incidence decreases or infectiousness increases, symptoms are reported less frequently. If the precision of private signals increases, the extent of overreporting of symptoms may increase. For different values of the parameters it can be socially optimal to subsidize or tax requests for additional investigations and confirmatory testing.

Disease Modelling And Public Health

Publisher: Elsevier
ISBN: 0444639691
Size: 51.62 MB
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Disease Modelling and Public Health, Part A, Volume 36 addresses new challenges in existing and emerging diseases with a variety of comprehensive chapters that cover Infectious Disease Modeling, Bayesian Disease Mapping for Public Health, Real time estimation of the case fatality ratio and risk factor of death, Alternative Sampling Designs for Time-To-Event Data with Applications to Biomarker Discovery in Alzheimer's Disease, Dynamic risk prediction for cardiovascular disease: An illustration using the ARIC Study, Theoretical advances in type 2 diabetes, Finite Mixture Models in Biostatistics, and Models of Individual and Collective Behavior for Public Health Epidemiology. As a two part volume, the series covers an extensive range of techniques in the field. It present a vital resource for statisticians who need to access a number of different methods for assessing epidemic spread in population, or in formulating public health policy. Presents a comprehensive, two-part volume written by leading subject experts Provides a unique breadth and depth of content coverage Addresses the most cutting-edge developments in the field Includes chapters on Ebola and the Zika virus; topics which have grown in prominence and scholarly output

Stabilit Tstheorie

Author: P.C. Parks
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 9783540110019
Size: 80.93 MB
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Das vorliegende Buch entstand aus der ausgearbeiteten Mitschrift der Vorlesung "Stabilitätstheorie", die Herr Prof. Parks im Winter semester 1979/80 als Gastprofessor an der Ruhr-Universität in Bochum hielt. Diese Vorlesung wandte sich an Studenten der Regelungstechnik, die über Grundkenntnisse der mathematischen Beschreibung dynamischer Vorgänge mittels Differentialgleichungen verfügten. Obwohl die Sta bilität dynamischer Systeme vom technischen Standpunkt aus darge stellt wird, ist das Buch auch für den Leser von Interesse, der mit dynamischen Prozessen im nichttechnischen Bereich, z. B. der Biokyber netik, der Meteorologie, usw. zu tun hat. Das Buch erfordert - abge sehen von dem Verständnis zur Beschreibung dynamischer Vorgäng- keine besonderen Vorkenntnisse vom Leser und ist als Einführung in das Gebiet gut geeignet. Andererseits wird ein Uberblick über sehr viele Methoden der Stabilitätsprüfung gegeben, so daß es für den jenigen, der sich schnell über eine Methode informieren will, durch aus als "Nachschlagewerk" verwendbar ist. Besonderer Wert wurde da rauf gelegt, nicht nur die Anwendung der einzelnen Methoden, sondern auch ihre Ableitung und ihre Zusammenhänge dazustellen. Insofern ist das Buch eine sinnvolle Ergänzung der bisherigen Lehrbuchliteratur auf dem Gebiet der Stabilität dynamischer Systeme. Ich wünsche dem vorliegenden Buch, daß es vor allem auch in der Praxis Interesse findet und Anlaß zur weiteren Anwendung der vor geschlagenen Verfahren wird. Professor Dr. -Ing. H. Unbehauen Lehrstuhl für Elektrische Steuerung und Regelung Ruhr-Universität Bochum Bochum, im Sommer 1981 Inhaltsverzeichnis 0. Einführung •. . . . . . •. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ••. . ••. •. ••. . •. . . •. . . . . . 1. Stabilitätstheorie linearer Systeme . . . . . . . •. •. . . . . . . . . . . .

The Impacts Of Simultaneous Disease Intervention Decisions On Epidemic Outcomes

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Abstract: Mathematical models of the interplay between disease dynamics and human behavioural dynamics can improve our understanding of how diseases spread when individuals adapt their behaviour in response to an epidemic. Accounting for behavioural mechanisms that determine uptake of infectious disease interventions such as vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) can significantly alter predicted health outcomes in a population. However, most previous approaches that model interactions between human behaviour and disease dynamics have modelled behaviour of these two interventions separately. Here, we develop and analyze an agent based network model to gain insights into how behaviour toward both interventions interact adaptively with disease dynamics (and therefore, indirectly, with one another) during the course of a single epidemic where an SIRV infection spreads through a contact network. In the model, individuals decide to become vaccinated and/or practice NPIs based on perceived infection prevalence (locally or globally) and on what other individuals in the network are doing. We find that introducing adaptive NPI behaviour lowers vaccine uptake on account of behavioural feedbacks, and also decreases epidemic final size. When transmission rates are low, NPIs alone are as effective in reducing epidemic final size as NPIs and vaccination combined. Also, NPIs can compensate for delays in vaccine availability by hindering early disease spread, decreasing epidemic size significantly compared to the case where NPI behaviour does not adapt to mitigate early surges in infection prevalence. We also find that including adaptive NPI behaviour strongly mitigates the vaccine behavioural feedbacks that would otherwise result in higher vaccine uptake at lower vaccine efficacy as predicted by most previous models, and the same feedbacks cause epidemic final size to remain approximately constant across a broad range of values for vaccine efficacy. Finally, when individuals use local information about others' behaviour and infection prevalence, instead of population-level information, infection is controlled more efficiently through ring vaccination, and this is reflected in the time evolution of pair correlations on the network. This model shows that accounting for both adaptive NPI behaviour and adaptive vaccinating behaviour regarding social effects and infection prevalence can result in qualitatively different predictions than if only one type of adaptive behaviour is modelled. Abstract : Highlights: We create an agent based network model that simulates an epidemic. We combine population decisions for vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions. Vaccination mitigates epidemic final size effectively for high transmission rates. Non-pharmaceutical interventions compensate for delays in vaccine availability. Non-pharmaceutical interventions can lower vaccine uptake and reduce epidemic size.

Propagation Dynamics On Complex Networks

Author: Xinchu Fu
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118762819
Size: 57.95 MB
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Explores the emerging subject of epidemic dynamics on complex networks, including theories, methods, and real-world applications Throughout history epidemic diseases have presented a serious threat to human life, and in recent years the spread of infectious diseases such as dengue, malaria, HIV, and SARS has captured global attention; and in the modern technological age, the proliferation of virus attacks on the Internet highlights the emergent need for knowledge about modeling, analysis, and control in epidemic dynamics on complex networks. For advancement of techniques, it has become clear that more fundamental knowledge will be needed in mathematical and numerical context about how epidemic dynamical networks can be modelled, analyzed, and controlled. This book explores recent progress in these topics and looks at issues relating to various epidemic systems. Propagation Dynamics on Complex Networks covers most key topics in the field, and will provide a valuable resource for graduate students and researchers interested in network science and dynamical systems, and related interdisciplinary fields. Key Features: Includes a brief history of mathematical epidemiology and epidemic modeling on complex networks. Explores how information, opinion, and rumor spread via the Internet and social networks. Presents plausible models for propagation of SARS and avian influenza outbreaks, providing a reality check for otherwise abstract mathematical modeling. Considers various infectivity functions, including constant, piecewise-linear, saturated, and nonlinear cases. Examines information transmission on complex networks, and investigates the difference between information and epidemic spreading.


Author: Thomas D. Seeley
Publisher: S. Fischer Verlag
ISBN: 3104017166
Size: 18.84 MB
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»Ein wunderbares Buch über den besten Freund des Menschen unter den Insekten...« Edward O. Wilson Die Bienenkönigin ist keine absolute Herrscherin. Im Gegenteil: Bienen entscheiden alle gemeinsam als Schwarm, sie erforschen kollektiv einen Sachverhalt und debattieren lebhaft, um letztlich einen Konsens zu finden. Der bekannte Verhaltensforscher Thomas D. Seeley untersucht seit Jahrzehnten in akribischer Kleinarbeit das Leben der Bienen. In seinem spannend geschriebenen Buch zeigt er anschaulich, was wir von diesen wunderbaren Insekten lernen können und dass die Entscheidung mehrerer klüger als die Einzelner sein kann. Ein reich bebildertes, ebenso faszinierendes wie anregendes Buch. »Seeleys Enthusiasmus und Bewunderung für Bienen sind ansteckend, seine Forschungen meisterhaft.« New York Times »Brillant.« Nature »Fesselnd und bezaubernd.« Science »Das hinreißendste Wissenschaftsbuch des Jahres.« Financial Times