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Business Cycles

Author: Victor Zarnowitz
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 9780226978901
Size: 48.87 MB
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This volume presents the most complete collection available of the work of Victor Zarnowitz, a leader in the study of business cycles, growth, inflation, and forecasting.. With characteristic insight, Zarnowitz examines theories of the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories and more recent rational expectation and real business cycle theories. He also measures trends and cycles in economic activity; evaluates the performance of leading indicators and their composite measures; surveys forecasting tools and performance of business and academic economists; discusses historical changes in the nature and sources of business cycles; and analyzes how successfully forecasting firms and economists predict such key economic variables as interest rates and inflation.

Monetary Policy Over Fifty Years

Author: Heinz Herrmann
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 113402083X
Size: 30.98 MB
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This book is based on a conference celebrating the 50th anniversary of the Deutsche Bundesbank. Since the 1950s, there have been fundamental changes in the monetary order and financial systems, in our understanding of the effects of monetary policy, the best goals for central banks and the appropriate institutional setting of central banks. Prominent monetary economists and central bankers give their views on the most significant developments during this period and the lessons we should draw from them. The book contains four sections on central issues. The first part discusses the main successes and failures of monetary policy since the 1950s. The second part asks what economists have learned about monetary policy over the past 50 years. It gives an overview on experiences with various monetary strategies, focusing in particular on monetary targeting and its problems, on inflation targeting and why it was successful and the institutional framework for monetary policy. The next section outlines the progress that monetary economists have made since the Bundesbank was founded and discusses the extent to which central banks can rely on "scientific" principles. The final part describes the interaction between monetary policy, fiscal policy and labour markets. The book provides a comprehensive overview of the main challenges faced by central bankers in the past and how and to what extent monetary economics have been helpful in tackling them. It outlines our current knowledge about the effects of monetary policy and the appropriate institutional framework for central banks and raises some open questions for the future. It will be of great interest to monetary economists, central bankers and economic historians.

Monetary Policy Rules

Author: John B. Taylor
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 9780226791265
Size: 12.64 MB
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This timely volume presents the latest thinking on the monetary policy rules and seeks to determine just what types of rules and policy guidelines function best. A unique cooperative research effort that allowed contributors to evaluate different policy rules using their own specific approaches, this collection presents their striking findings on the potential response of interest rates to an array of variables, including alterations in the rates of inflation, unemployment, and exchange. Monetary Policy Rules illustrates that simple policy rules are more robust and more efficient than complex rules with multiple variables. A state-of-the-art appraisal of the fundamental issues facing the Federal Reserve Board and other central banks, Monetary Policy Rules is essential reading for economic analysts and policymakers alike.

Ifo Survey Data In Business Cycle And Monetary Policy Analysis

Author: Jan-Egbert Sturm
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3790816051
Size: 52.55 MB
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A pilot ?ying to a distant city needs to check his position, ?ight path and weather conditions, and must constantly keep his plane under control to land safely.TheIfosurveydataprovideadvanceinformationonchangingeconomic weather conditions and help keep the economy under control. To be sure, by their very nature they only provide short-term information. But like a plane, the economy will not be able to reach its long-term goals if it strays o? course in the short term. The Ifo survey data provide the most comprehensive and accurate, - to-date database in Europe on the state of the business cycle, and the Ifo climate indicator, sometimes simply called “The Ifo”, is the most frequently cited indicator of its kind in Europe. Both the European stock market and theeuroreacttoourindicator.Ifo’smethodologyfordeterminingthebusiness climateindicatorhasbeenexportedtomorethan?ftycountries,mostrecently toTurkeyandChina.TheIfopeoplewereproudtohavebeenaskedtohelpset up polling systems in these countries. It is said that the Chinese government relies more on their “Ifo indicator” than on their o?cial accounting statistics.

The American Business Cycle

Author: Robert J. Gordon
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 9780226304595
Size: 50.76 MB
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In recent decades the American economy has experienced the worst peace-time inflation in its history and the highest unemployment rate since the Great Depression. These circumstances have prompted renewed interest in the concept of business cycles, which Joseph Schumpeter suggested are "like the beat of the heart, of the essence of the organism that displays them." In The American Business Cycle, some of the most prominent macroeconomics in the United States focuses on the questions, To what extent are business cycles propelled by external shocks? How have post-1946 cycles differed from earlier cycles? And, what are the major factors that contribute to business cycles? They extend their investigation in some areas as far back as 1875 to afford a deeper understanding of both economic history and the most recent economic fluctuations. Seven papers address specific aspects of economic activity: consumption, investment, inventory change, fiscal policy, monetary behavior, open economy, and the labor market. Five papers focus on aggregate economic activity. In a number of cases, the papers present findings that challenge widely accepted models and assumptions. In addition to its substantive findings, The American Business Cycle includes an appendix containing both the first published history of the NBER business-cycle dating chronology and many previously unpublished historical data series.

The Inflation Targeting Debate

Author: Ben S. Bernanke
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 0226044734
Size: 11.53 MB
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Over the past fifteen years, a significant number of industrialized and middle-income countries have adopted inflation targeting as a framework for monetary policymaking. As the name suggests, in such inflation-targeting regimes, the central bank is responsible for achieving a publicly announced target for the inflation rate. While the objective of controlling inflation enjoys wide support among both academic experts and policymakers, and while the countries that have followed this model have generally experienced good macroeconomic outcomes, many important questions about inflation targeting remain. In Inflation Targeting, a distinguished group of contributors explores the many underexamined dimensions of inflation targeting—its potential, its successes, and its limitations—from both a theoretical and an empirical standpoint, and for both developed and emerging economies. The volume opens with a discussion of the optimal formulation of inflation-targeting policy and continues with a debate about the desirability of such a model for the United States. The concluding chapters discuss the special problems of inflation targeting in emerging markets, including the Czech Republic, Poland, and Hungary.

Regional Monetary Policy

Author: Carlos Javier Rodriguez Fuentes
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1134336942
Size: 52.85 MB
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With the final phase of the European Monetary Union underway, concern has been raised over the regional implications of the European Central Bank (ECB) Monetary Policy. Departing from the standard approach utilized by the ECB, this book provides a comprehensive theoretical framework to explore the ways through which money and monetary policy may affect regions. Carlos Rodriguez Fuentes, the rising star of Spanish economics, has produced a work of impressive clarity which analyzes the effects of regional monetary policy - with particular reference to European Monetary Union. Here, he examines the role that the banking system and the liquidity preference of economic agents play in the transmission of central banks monetary policy decisions to regions within a country or countries within a currency union. Rodriguez Fuentes utilizes a unique framework built upon the basic principle of the Post-Keynsian monetary theory which enables the identification of a new way for money and monetary policy to have a regional impact; the behavioural effect. This book, with it’s combination of literary and empirical approach will prove essential reading for all students of economics and politics, as well as readers who interested in the development of the European Union.