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Monetary Policy Inflation And The Business Cycle

Author: Jordi Galí
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 1400866278
Size: 13.78 MB
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This revised second edition of Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle provides a rigorous graduate-level introduction to the New Keynesian framework and its applications to monetary policy. The New Keynesian framework is the workhorse for the analysis of monetary policy and its implications for inflation, economic fluctuations, and welfare. A backbone of the new generation of medium-scale models under development at major central banks and international policy institutions, the framework provides the theoretical underpinnings for the price stability–oriented strategies adopted by most central banks in the industrialized world. Using a canonical version of the New Keynesian model as a reference, Jordi Galí explores various issues pertaining to monetary policy's design, including optimal monetary policy and the desirability of simple policy rules. He analyzes several extensions of the baseline model, allowing for cost-push shocks, nominal wage rigidities, and open economy factors. In each case, the effects on monetary policy are addressed, with emphasis on the desirability of inflation-targeting policies. New material includes the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates and an analysis of unemployment’s significance for monetary policy. The most up-to-date introduction to the New Keynesian framework available A single benchmark model used throughout New materials and exercises included An ideal resource for graduate students, researchers, and market analysts

Monetary Policy Rules

Author: John B. Taylor
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 9780226791265
Size: 34.25 MB
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This timely volume presents the latest thinking on the monetary policy rules and seeks to determine just what types of rules and policy guidelines function best. A unique cooperative research effort that allowed contributors to evaluate different policy rules using their own specific approaches, this collection presents their striking findings on the potential response of interest rates to an array of variables, including alterations in the rates of inflation, unemployment, and exchange. Monetary Policy Rules illustrates that simple policy rules are more robust and more efficient than complex rules with multiple variables. A state-of-the-art appraisal of the fundamental issues facing the Federal Reserve Board and other central banks, Monetary Policy Rules is essential reading for economic analysts and policymakers alike.

Simple Monetary Policy Rules Under Model Uncertainty

Author: Ann-Charlotte Eliasson
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1452740178
Size: 11.60 MB
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Using stochastic simulations and stability analysis, the paper compares how different monetary rules perform in a moderately nonlinear model with a time-varying nonaccelerating-inflation-rate-of-unemployment (NAIRU). Rules that perform well in linear models but implicitly embody backward-looking measures of real interest rates (such as conventional Taylor rules) or substantial interest rate smoothing perform very poorly in models with moderate nonlinearities, particularly when policymakers tend to make serially correlated errors in estimating the NAIRU. This challenges the practice of evaluating rules within linear models, in which the consequences of responding myopically to significant overheating are extremely unrealistic.

Business Cycles

Author: Victor Zarnowitz
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 9780226978901
Size: 45.12 MB
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This volume presents the most complete collection available of the work of Victor Zarnowitz, a leader in the study of business cycles, growth, inflation, and forecasting.. With characteristic insight, Zarnowitz examines theories of the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories and more recent rational expectation and real business cycle theories. He also measures trends and cycles in economic activity; evaluates the performance of leading indicators and their composite measures; surveys forecasting tools and performance of business and academic economists; discusses historical changes in the nature and sources of business cycles; and analyzes how successfully forecasting firms and economists predict such key economic variables as interest rates and inflation.

The American Business Cycle

Author: Robert J. Gordon
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 9780226304595
Size: 72.78 MB
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In recent decades the American economy has experienced the worst peace-time inflation in its history and the highest unemployment rate since the Great Depression. These circumstances have prompted renewed interest in the concept of business cycles, which Joseph Schumpeter suggested are "like the beat of the heart, of the essence of the organism that displays them." In The American Business Cycle, some of the most prominent macroeconomics in the United States focuses on the questions, To what extent are business cycles propelled by external shocks? How have post-1946 cycles differed from earlier cycles? And, what are the major factors that contribute to business cycles? They extend their investigation in some areas as far back as 1875 to afford a deeper understanding of both economic history and the most recent economic fluctuations. Seven papers address specific aspects of economic activity: consumption, investment, inventory change, fiscal policy, monetary behavior, open economy, and the labor market. Five papers focus on aggregate economic activity. In a number of cases, the papers present findings that challenge widely accepted models and assumptions. In addition to its substantive findings, The American Business Cycle includes an appendix containing both the first published history of the NBER business-cycle dating chronology and many previously unpublished historical data series.

Central Banks And Gold

Author: Simon James Bytheway
Publisher: Cornell University Press
ISBN: 1501706500
Size: 64.50 MB
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In recent decades, Tokyo, London, and New York have been the sites of credit bubbles of historically unprecedented magnitude. Central bankers have enjoyed almost unparalleled power and autonomy. They have cooperated to construct and preserve towering structures of debt, reshaping relations of power and ownership around the world. In Central Banks and Gold, Simon James Bytheway and Mark Metzler explore how this financialized form of globalism first took shape a century ago, when Tokyo first joined London and New York as a major financial center. As revealed here for the first time, close cooperation between central banks began along an unexpected axis, between London and Tokyo, around the year 1900, with the Bank of England's secret use of large Bank of Japan funds to intervene in the London markets. Central-bank cooperation became multilateral during World War I—the moment when Japan first emerged as a creditor country. In 1919 and 1920, as Japan, Great Britain, and the United States adopted deflation policies, the results of cooperation were realized in the world’s first globally coordinated program of monetary policy. It was also in 1920 that Wall Street bankers moved to establish closer ties with Tokyo. Bytheway and Metzler tell the story of how the first age of central-bank power and pride ended in the disaster of the Great Depression, when a rush for gold brought the system crashing down. In all of this, we see also the quiet but surprisingly central place of Japan. We see it again today, in the way that Japan has unwillingly led the world into a new age of post-bubble economics.

Housing Credit Markets And The Business Cycle

Author: Martin S. Feldstein
Size: 58.73 MB
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The housing sector is now (September 2007) at the root of three distinct but related problems: (1) a sharp decline in house prices and the related fall in home building; (2) a subprime mortgage problem that has triggered a substantial widening of all credit spreads and the freezing of much of the credit markets; and (3) a decline in home equity loans and mortgage refinancing that could cause greater declines in consumer spending. Each of these could by itself be powerful enough to cause an economic downturn. The combination could cause a very serious recession unless there are other offsetting forces. In this paper, I discuss each of these and then comment on the implications for monetary policy.

Ifo Survey Data In Business Cycle And Monetary Policy Analysis

Author: Jan-Egbert Sturm
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3790816051
Size: 45.34 MB
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A pilot ?ying to a distant city needs to check his position, ?ight path and weather conditions, and must constantly keep his plane under control to land safely.TheIfosurveydataprovideadvanceinformationonchangingeconomic weather conditions and help keep the economy under control. To be sure, by their very nature they only provide short-term information. But like a plane, the economy will not be able to reach its long-term goals if it strays o? course in the short term. The Ifo survey data provide the most comprehensive and accurate, - to-date database in Europe on the state of the business cycle, and the Ifo climate indicator, sometimes simply called “The Ifo”, is the most frequently cited indicator of its kind in Europe. Both the European stock market and theeuroreacttoourindicator.Ifo’smethodologyfordeterminingthebusiness climateindicatorhasbeenexportedtomorethan?ftycountries,mostrecently toTurkeyandChina.TheIfopeoplewereproudtohavebeenaskedtohelpset up polling systems in these countries. It is said that the Chinese government relies more on their “Ifo indicator” than on their o?cial accounting statistics.

Monetary Policy Over Fifty Years

Author: Heinz Herrmann
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 113402083X
Size: 51.49 MB
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This book is based on a conference celebrating the 50th anniversary of the Deutsche Bundesbank. Since the 1950s, there have been fundamental changes in the monetary order and financial systems, in our understanding of the effects of monetary policy, the best goals for central banks and the appropriate institutional setting of central banks. Prominent monetary economists and central bankers give their views on the most significant developments during this period and the lessons we should draw from them. The book contains four sections on central issues. The first part discusses the main successes and failures of monetary policy since the 1950s. The second part asks what economists have learned about monetary policy over the past 50 years. It gives an overview on experiences with various monetary strategies, focusing in particular on monetary targeting and its problems, on inflation targeting and why it was successful and the institutional framework for monetary policy. The next section outlines the progress that monetary economists have made since the Bundesbank was founded and discusses the extent to which central banks can rely on "scientific" principles. The final part describes the interaction between monetary policy, fiscal policy and labour markets. The book provides a comprehensive overview of the main challenges faced by central bankers in the past and how and to what extent monetary economics have been helpful in tackling them. It outlines our current knowledge about the effects of monetary policy and the appropriate institutional framework for central banks and raises some open questions for the future. It will be of great interest to monetary economists, central bankers and economic historians.