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Operational Weather Forecasting

Author: Peter Michael Inness
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118447638
Size: 14.70 MB
Format: PDF
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This book offers a complete primer, covering the end-to-endprocess of forecast production, and bringing together a descriptionof all the relevant aspects together in a single volume; withplenty of explanation of some of the more complex issues andexamples of current, state-of-the-art practices. Operational Weather Forecasting covers the whole processof forecast production, from understanding the nature of theforecasting problem, gathering the observational data with which toinitialise and verify forecasts, designing and building a model (ormodels) to advance those initial conditions forwards in time andthen interpreting the model output and putting it into a form whichis relevant to customers of weather forecasts. Included is thegeneration of forecasts on the monthly-to-seasonal timescales,often excluded in text-books despite this type of forecastinghaving been undertaken for several years. This is a rapidly developing field, with a lot of variations inpractices between different forecasting centres. Thus theauthors have tried to be as generic as possible when describingaspects of numerical model design and formulation. Despitethe reliance on NWP, the human forecaster still has a big part toplay in producing weather forecasts and this is described, alongwith the issue of forecast verification – how forecastcentres measure their own performance and improve upon it. Advanced undergraduates and postgraduate students will use thisbook to understand how the theory comes together in the day-to-dayapplications of weather forecast production. In addition,professional weather forecasting practitioners, professional usersof weather forecasts and trainers will all find this new member ofthe RMetS Advancing Weather and Climate series avaluable tool. Provides an end-to-end description of the weather forecastingprocess Clearly structured and pitched at an accessible level, the bookdiscusses the practical choices that operational forecastingcentres have to make in terms of what numerical models they use andwhen they are run. Takes a very practical approach, using real life case-studiesto contextualize information Discusses the latest advances in the area, including ensemblemethods, monthly to seasonal range prediction and use of‘nowcasting’ tools such as radar and satelliteimagery Full colour throughout Written by a highly respected team of authors with experiencein both academia and practice. Part of the RMetS book series ‘Advancing Weather andClimate’

A National Strategy For Advancing Climate Modeling

Author: Committee on a National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309259789
Size: 49.66 MB
Format: PDF, ePub
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As climate change has pushed climate patterns outside of historic norms, the need for detailed projections is growing across all sectors, including agriculture, insurance, and emergency preparedness planning. A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling emphasizes the needs for climate models to evolve substantially in order to deliver climate projections at the scale and level of detail desired by decision makers, this report finds. Despite much recent progress in developing reliable climate models, there are still efficiencies to be gained across the large and diverse U.S. climate modeling community. Evolving to a more unified climate modeling enterprise-in particular by developing a common software infrastructure shared by all climate researchers and holding an annual climate modeling forum-could help speed progress. Throughout this report, several recommendations and guidelines are outlined to accelerate progress in climate modeling. The U.S. supports several climate models, each conceptually similar but with components assembled with slightly different software and data output standards. If all U.S. climate models employed a single software system, it could simplify testing and migration to new computing hardware, and allow scientists to compare and interchange climate model components, such as land surface or ocean models. A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling recommends an annual U.S. climate modeling forum be held to help bring the nation's diverse modeling communities together with the users of climate data. This would provide climate model data users with an opportunity to learn more about the strengths and limitations of models and provide input to modelers on their needs and provide a venue for discussions of priorities for the national modeling enterprise, and bring disparate climate science communities together to design common modeling experiments. In addition, A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling explains that U.S. climate modelers will need to address an expanding breadth of scientific problems while striving to make predictions and projections more accurate. Progress toward this goal can be made through a combination of increasing model resolution, advances in observations, improved model physics, and more complete representations of the Earth system. To address the computing needs of the climate modeling community, the report suggests a two-pronged approach that involves the continued use and upgrading of existing climate-dedicated computing resources at modeling centers, together with research on how to effectively exploit the more complex computer hardware systems expected over the next 10 to 20 years.

Predictability Of Weather And Climate

Author: Tim Palmer
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1139458205
Size: 52.54 MB
Format: PDF
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The topic of predictability in weather and climate has advanced significantly in recent years, both in understanding the phenomena that affect weather and climate and in techniques used to model and forecast them. This book, first published in 2006, brings together some of the world's leading experts on predicting weather and climate. It addresses predictability from the theoretical to the practical, on timescales from days to decades. Topics such as the predictability of weather phenomena, coupled ocean-atmosphere systems and anthropogenic climate change are among those included. Ensemble systems for forecasting predictability are discussed extensively. Ed Lorenz, father of chaos theory, makes a contribution to theoretical analysis with a previously unpublished paper. This well-balanced volume will be a valuable resource for many years. High-calibre chapter authors and extensive subject coverage make it valuable to people with an interest in weather and climate forecasting and environmental science, from graduate students to researchers.

Cultures Of Prediction In Atmospheric And Climate Science

Author: Matthias Heymann
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
ISBN: 1315406292
Size: 72.46 MB
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In recent decades, science has experienced a revolutionary shift. The development and extensive application of computer modelling and simulation has transformed the knowledge‐making practices of scientific fields as diverse as astro‐physics, genetics, robotics and demography. This epistemic transformation has brought with it a simultaneous heightening of political relevance and a renewal of international policy agendas, raising crucial questions about the nature and application of simulation knowledges throughout public policy. Through a diverse range of case studies, spanning over a century of theoretical and practical developments in the atmospheric and environmental sciences, this book argues that computer modelling and simulation have substantially changed scientific and cultural practices and shaped the emergence of novel ‘cultures of prediction’. Making an innovative, interdisciplinary contribution to understanding the impact of computer modelling on research practice, institutional configurations and broader cultures, this volume will be essential reading for anyone interested in the past, present and future of climate change and the environmental sciences.

The Potential Impact Of High End Capability Computing On Four Illustrative Fields Of Science And Engineering

Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309124859
Size: 76.15 MB
Format: PDF
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Many federal funding requests for more advanced computer resources assume implicitly that greater computing power creates opportunities for advancement in science and engineering. This has often been a good assumption. Given stringent pressures on the federal budget, the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) and Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) are seeking an improved approach to the formulation and review of requests from the agencies for new computing funds. This book examines, for four illustrative fields of science and engineering, how one can start with an understanding of their major challenges and discern how progress against those challenges depends on high-end capability computing (HECC). The four fields covered are: atmospheric science astrophysics chemical separations evolutionary biology This book finds that all four of these fields are critically dependent on HECC, but in different ways. The book characterizes the components that combine to enable new advances in computational science and engineering and identifies aspects that apply to multiple fields.

From Research To Operations In Weather Satellites And Numerical Weather Prediction

Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309069416
Size: 52.63 MB
Format: PDF
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This workshop report examines the capability of the forecast system to efficiently transfer weather and climate research findings into improved operational forecast capabilities. It looks in particular at the Environmental Modeling Center of the National Weather Service and environmental observational satellite programs. Using these examples, the report identifies several shortcomings in the capability to transition from research to operations. Successful transitions from R&D to operational implementation requires (1) understanding of the importance (and risks) of the transition, (2) development and maintenance of appropriate transition plans, (3) adequate resource provision, and (4) continuous feedback (in both directions) between the R&D and operational activities.

Applications Of Constellation Observing System For Meteorology Ionosphere Climate

Author: Lou-Chuang Lee
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9789624301359
Size: 60.95 MB
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A collection of contributions from many experts from space research institutions in a joint US-Taiwan project, COSMIC - Application of Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate. The COSMIC project data will complement other observing systems and improve global weather analyses. These improved data analyses and forecast will provide significant benefits to aviation and other industries that accurate meteorological forecast are needed . The COSMIC project is a science experience to demonstrate the utility of atmospheric limb surroundings from a constellation of eight low-earth orbiting satellites in operational weather prediction, space weather monitoring and space geodesy.

Ensuring The Climate Record From The Npoess And Goes R Spacecraft

Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 9780309178006
Size: 10.29 MB
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In 2000, the nation's next-generation National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) program anticipated purchasing six satellites for $6.5 billion, with a first launch in 2008. By November 2005, however, it became apparent that NPOESS would overrun its cost estimates by at least 25 percent. In June 2006, the planned acquisition of six spacecraft was reduced to four, the launch of the first spacecraft was delayed until 2013, and several sensors were canceled or descoped in capability. Based on information gathered at a June 2007 workshop, "Options to Ensure the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft," this book prioritizes capabilities, especially those related to climate research, that were lost or placed at risk following the 2006 changes. This book presents and recommends a prioritized, short-term strategy for recovery of crucial climate capabilities lost in the NPOESS and GOES-R program descopes. However, mitigation of these recent losses is only the first step in establishing a viable long-term climate strategy-one that builds on the lessons learned from the well-intentioned but poorly executed merger of the nation's weather and climate observation systems.

Weather Radar Technology Beyond Nexrad

Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309169453
Size: 61.26 MB
Format: PDF, ePub, Mobi
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Weather radar is a vital instrument for observing the atmosphere to help provide weather forecasts and issue weather warnings to the public. The current Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) system provides Doppler radar coverage to most regions of the United States (NRC, 1995). This network was designed in the mid 1980s and deployed in the 1990s as part of the National Weather Service (NWS) modernization (NRC, 1999). Since the initial design phase of the NEXRAD program, considerable advances have been made in radar technologies and in the use of weather radar for monitoring and prediction. The development of new technologies provides the motivation for appraising the status of the current weather radar system and identifying the most promising approaches for the development of its eventual replacement. The charge to the committee was to determine the state of knowledge regarding ground-based weather surveillance radar technology and identify the most promising approaches for the design of the replacement for the present Doppler Weather Radar. This report presents a first look at potential approaches for future upgrades to or replacements of the current weather radar system. The need, and schedule, for replacing the current system has not been established, but the committee used the briefings and deliberations to assess how the current system satisfies the current and emerging needs of the operational and research communities and identified potential system upgrades for providing improved weather forecasts and warnings. The time scale for any total replacement of the system (20- to 30-year time horizon) precluded detailed investigation of the designs and cost structures associated with any new weather radar system. The committee instead noted technologies that could provide improvements over the capabilities of the evolving NEXRAD system and recommends more detailed investigation and evaluation of several of these technologies. In the course of its deliberations, the committee developed a sense that the processes by which the eventual replacement radar system is developed and deployed could be as significant as the specific technologies adopted. Consequently, some of the committee's recommendations deal with such procedural issues.