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Operational Weather Forecasting

Author: Peter Michael Inness
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118447638
Size: 31.91 MB
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This book offers a complete primer, covering the end-to-end process of forecast production, and bringing together a description of all the relevant aspects together in a single volume; with plenty of explanation of some of the more complex issues and examples of current, state-of-the-art practices. Operational Weather Forecasting covers the whole process of forecast production, from understanding the nature of the forecasting problem, gathering the observational data with which to initialise and verify forecasts, designing and building a model (or models) to advance those initial conditions forwards in time and then interpreting the model output and putting it into a form which is relevant to customers of weather forecasts. Included is the generation of forecasts on the monthly-to-seasonal timescales, often excluded in text-books despite this type of forecasting having been undertaken for several years. This is a rapidly developing field, with a lot of variations in practices between different forecasting centres. Thus the authors have tried to be as generic as possible when describing aspects of numerical model design and formulation. Despite the reliance on NWP, the human forecaster still has a big part to play in producing weather forecasts and this is described, along with the issue of forecast verification – how forecast centres measure their own performance and improve upon it. Advanced undergraduates and postgraduate students will use this book to understand how the theory comes together in the day-to-day applications of weather forecast production. In addition, professional weather forecasting practitioners, professional users of weather forecasts and trainers will all find this new member of the RMetS Advancing Weather and Climate series a valuable tool. Provides an end-to-end description of the weather forecasting process Clearly structured and pitched at an accessible level, the book discusses the practical choices that operational forecasting centres have to make in terms of what numerical models they use and when they are run. Takes a very practical approach, using real life case-studies to contextualize information Discusses the latest advances in the area, including ensemble methods, monthly to seasonal range prediction and use of ‘nowcasting’ tools such as radar and satellite imagery Full colour throughout Written by a highly respected team of authors with experience in both academia and practice. Part of the RMetS book series ‘Advancing Weather and Climate’

Predictability Of Weather And Climate

Author: Tim Palmer
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1139458205
Size: 14.97 MB
Format: PDF
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The topic of predictability in weather and climate has advanced significantly in recent years, both in understanding the phenomena that affect weather and climate and in techniques used to model and forecast them. This book, first published in 2006, brings together some of the world's leading experts on predicting weather and climate. It addresses predictability from the theoretical to the practical, on timescales from days to decades. Topics such as the predictability of weather phenomena, coupled ocean-atmosphere systems and anthropogenic climate change are among those included. Ensemble systems for forecasting predictability are discussed extensively. Ed Lorenz, father of chaos theory, makes a contribution to theoretical analysis with a previously unpublished paper. This well-balanced volume will be a valuable resource for many years. High-calibre chapter authors and extensive subject coverage make it valuable to people with an interest in weather and climate forecasting and environmental science, from graduate students to researchers.

A National Strategy For Advancing Climate Modeling

Author: Committee on a National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309259789
Size: 17.78 MB
Format: PDF
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As climate change has pushed climate patterns outside of historic norms, the need for detailed projections is growing across all sectors, including agriculture, insurance, and emergency preparedness planning. A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling emphasizes the needs for climate models to evolve substantially in order to deliver climate projections at the scale and level of detail desired by decision makers, this report finds. Despite much recent progress in developing reliable climate models, there are still efficiencies to be gained across the large and diverse U.S. climate modeling community. Evolving to a more unified climate modeling enterprise-in particular by developing a common software infrastructure shared by all climate researchers and holding an annual climate modeling forum-could help speed progress. Throughout this report, several recommendations and guidelines are outlined to accelerate progress in climate modeling. The U.S. supports several climate models, each conceptually similar but with components assembled with slightly different software and data output standards. If all U.S. climate models employed a single software system, it could simplify testing and migration to new computing hardware, and allow scientists to compare and interchange climate model components, such as land surface or ocean models. A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling recommends an annual U.S. climate modeling forum be held to help bring the nation's diverse modeling communities together with the users of climate data. This would provide climate model data users with an opportunity to learn more about the strengths and limitations of models and provide input to modelers on their needs and provide a venue for discussions of priorities for the national modeling enterprise, and bring disparate climate science communities together to design common modeling experiments. In addition, A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling explains that U.S. climate modelers will need to address an expanding breadth of scientific problems while striving to make predictions and projections more accurate. Progress toward this goal can be made through a combination of increasing model resolution, advances in observations, improved model physics, and more complete representations of the Earth system. To address the computing needs of the climate modeling community, the report suggests a two-pronged approach that involves the continued use and upgrading of existing climate-dedicated computing resources at modeling centers, together with research on how to effectively exploit the more complex computer hardware systems expected over the next 10 to 20 years.

Cultures Of Prediction In Atmospheric And Climate Science

Author: Matthias Heymann
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
ISBN: 1315406292
Size: 73.73 MB
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In recent decades, science has experienced a revolutionary shift. The development and extensive application of computer modelling and simulation has transformed the knowledge‐making practices of scientific fields as diverse as astro‐physics, genetics, robotics and demography. This epistemic transformation has brought with it a simultaneous heightening of political relevance and a renewal of international policy agendas, raising crucial questions about the nature and application of simulation knowledges throughout public policy. Through a diverse range of case studies, spanning over a century of theoretical and practical developments in the atmospheric and environmental sciences, this book argues that computer modelling and simulation have substantially changed scientific and cultural practices and shaped the emergence of novel ‘cultures of prediction’. Making an innovative, interdisciplinary contribution to understanding the impact of computer modelling on research practice, institutional configurations and broader cultures, this volume will be essential reading for anyone interested in the past, present and future of climate change and the environmental sciences.

Desert Meteorology

Author: Thomas T. Warner
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9781139449632
Size: 50.28 MB
Format: PDF, Kindle
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Aridity prevails over more than one third of the land area of the Earth and over a significant fraction of the oceans as well. Yet to date there has been no comprehensive reference volume or textbook dealing with the weather processes that define the character of desert areas. Desert Meteorology fills this gap by treating all aspects of desert weather, such as large-scale and local-scale causes of aridity; precipitation characteristics in deserts; dust storms; floods; climate change in deserts; precipitation processes; desertification; land-surface physics of deserts; numerical modelling of desert atmospheres; and the effect of desert weather on humans. A summary is provided of the climates and surface properties of the desert areas of the world. The book is written with the assumption that the reader has only a basic knowledge of meteorology, physics and calculus, making it useful to those in a wide range of disciplines. It includes review questions and problems for the student. This comprehensive volume will satisfy all who need to know more about the weather and climate of arid lands. It will appeal especially to advanced students and researchers in environmental science, meteorology, physical geography, hydrology and engineering.

The Potential Impact Of High End Capability Computing On Four Illustrative Fields Of Science And Engineering

Author: Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309124859
Size: 18.90 MB
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Many federal funding requests for more advanced computer resources assume implicitly that greater computing power creates opportunities for advancement in science and engineering. This has often been a good assumption. Given stringent pressures on the federal budget, the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) and Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) are seeking an improved approach to the formulation and review of requests from the agencies for new computing funds. This book examines, for four illustrative fields of science and engineering, how one can start with an understanding of their major challenges and discern how progress against those challenges depends on high-end capability computing (HECC). The four fields covered are: atmospheric science astrophysics chemical separations evolutionary biology This book finds that all four of these fields are critically dependent on HECC, but in different ways. The book characterizes the components that combine to enable new advances in computational science and engineering and identifies aspects that apply to multiple fields.

From Research To Operations In Weather Satellites And Numerical Weather Prediction

Author: Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309069416
Size: 19.62 MB
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This workshop report examines the capability of the forecast system to efficiently transfer weather and climate research findings into improved operational forecast capabilities. It looks in particular at the Environmental Modeling Center of the National Weather Service and environmental observational satellite programs. Using these examples, the report identifies several shortcomings in the capability to transition from research to operations. Successful transitions from R&D to operational implementation requires (1) understanding of the importance (and risks) of the transition, (2) development and maintenance of appropriate transition plans, (3) adequate resource provision, and (4) continuous feedback (in both directions) between the R&D and operational activities.

Fundamentals Of Numerical Weather Prediction

Author: Jean Coiffier
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1139502700
Size: 54.37 MB
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Numerical models have become essential tools in environmental science, particularly in weather forecasting and climate prediction. This book provides a comprehensive overview of the techniques used in these fields, with emphasis on the design of the most recent numerical models of the atmosphere. It presents a short history of numerical weather prediction and its evolution, before describing the various model equations and how to solve them numerically. It outlines the main elements of a meteorological forecast suite, and the theory is illustrated throughout with practical examples of operational models and parameterizations of physical processes. This book is founded on the author's many years of experience, as a scientist at Météo-France and teaching university-level courses. It is a practical and accessible textbook for graduate courses and a handy resource for researchers and professionals in atmospheric physics, meteorology and climatology, as well as the related disciplines of fluid dynamics, hydrology and oceanography.

Applications Of Constellation Observing System For Meteorology Ionosphere Climate

Author: Lou-Chuang Lee
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9789624301359
Size: 46.67 MB
Format: PDF
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A collection of contributions from many experts from space research institutions in a joint US-Taiwan project, COSMIC - Application of Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate. The COSMIC project data will complement other observing systems and improve global weather analyses. These improved data analyses and forecast will provide significant benefits to aviation and other industries that accurate meteorological forecast are needed . The COSMIC project is a science experience to demonstrate the utility of atmospheric limb surroundings from a constellation of eight low-earth orbiting satellites in operational weather prediction, space weather monitoring and space geodesy.