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Prediction Learning And Games

Author: Nicolo Cesa-Bianchi
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 113945482X
Size: 47.72 MB
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This important text and reference for researchers and students in machine learning, game theory, statistics and information theory offers a comprehensive treatment of the problem of predicting individual sequences. Unlike standard statistical approaches to forecasting, prediction of individual sequences does not impose any probabilistic assumption on the data-generating mechanism. Yet, prediction algorithms can be constructed that work well for all possible sequences, in the sense that their performance is always nearly as good as the best forecasting strategy in a given reference class. The central theme is the model of prediction using expert advice, a general framework within which many related problems can be cast and discussed. Repeated game playing, adaptive data compression, sequential investment in the stock market, sequential pattern analysis, and several other problems are viewed as instances of the experts' framework and analyzed from a common nonstochastic standpoint that often reveals new and intriguing connections.

Algorithmic Game Theory

Author: Noam Nisan
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9781139466547
Size: 76.85 MB
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In recent years game theory has had a substantial impact on computer science, especially on Internet- and e-commerce-related issues. Algorithmic Game Theory, first published in 2007, develops the central ideas and results of this exciting area in a clear and succinct manner. More than 40 of the top researchers in this field have written chapters that go from the foundations to the state of the art. Basic chapters on algorithmic methods for equilibria, mechanism design and combinatorial auctions are followed by chapters on important game theory applications such as incentives and pricing, cost sharing, information markets and cryptography and security. This definitive work will set the tone of research for the next few years and beyond. Students, researchers, and practitioners alike need to learn more about these fascinating theoretical developments and their widespread practical application.

Die Berechnung Der Zukunft

Author: Nate Silver
Publisher: Heyne Verlag
ISBN: 3641112702
Size: 15.51 MB
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Zuverlässige Vorhersagen sind doch möglich! Nate Silver ist der heimliche Gewinner der amerikanischen Präsidentschaftswahlen 2012: ein begnadeter Statistiker, als »Prognose-Popstar« und »Wundernerd« weltberühmt geworden. Er hat die Wahlergebnisse aller 50 amerikanischen Bundesstaaten absolut exakt vorausgesagt – doch damit nicht genug: Jetzt zeigt Nate Silver, wie seine Prognosen in Zukunft Terroranschläge, Umweltkatastrophen und Finanzkrisen verhindern sollen. Gelingt ihm die Abschaffung des Zufalls? Warum werden Wettervorhersagen immer besser, während die Terrorattacken vom 11.09.2001 niemand kommen sah? Warum erkennen Ökonomen eine globale Finanzkrise nicht einmal dann, wenn diese bereits begonnen hat? Das Problem ist nicht der Mangel an Informationen, sondern dass wir die verfügbaren Daten nicht richtig deuten. Zuverlässige Prognosen aber würden uns helfen, Zufälle und Ungewissheiten abzuwehren und unser Schicksal selbst zu bestimmen. Nate Silver zeigt, dass und wie das geht. Erstmals wendet er seine Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung nicht nur auf Wahlprognosen an, sondern auf die großen Probleme unserer Zeit: die Finanzmärkte, Ratingagenturen, Epidemien, Erdbeben, den Klimawandel, den Terrorismus. In all diesen Fällen gibt es zahlreiche Prognosen von Experten, die er überprüft – und erklärt, warum sie meist falsch sind. Gleichzeitig schildert er, wie es gelingen kann, im Rauschen der Daten die wesentlichen Informationen herauszufiltern. Ein unterhaltsamer und spannender Augenöffner!

Serious Games

Author: Stefan Göbel
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3030027627
Size: 68.20 MB
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This book constitutes the proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Serious Games, JCSG 2018, held in Darmstadt, Germany, in November 2018. The 15 full and 12 short papers presented in this volume were carefully reviewed and selected from 40 submissions. They were organized in topical sections named: serious games studies; game-based learning and teaching; game development - serious games design, models, tools and emerging technologies; and serious games for health.

Evolutionary Game Dynamics

Author: American Mathematical Society. Short Course
Publisher: American Mathematical Soc.
ISBN: 0821853260
Size: 59.63 MB
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This volume is based on lectures delivered at the 2011 AMS Short Course on Evolutionary Game Dynamics, held January 4-5, 2011 in New Orleans, Louisiana. Evolutionary game theory studies basic types of social interactions in populations of players. It combines the strategic viewpoint of classical game theory (independent rational players trying to outguess each other) with population dynamics (successful strategies increase their frequencies). A substantial part of the appeal of evolutionary game theory comes from its highly diverse applications such as social dilemmas, the evolution of language, or mating behaviour in animals. Moreover, its methods are becoming increasingly popular in computer science, engineering, and control theory. They help to design and control multi-agent systems, often with a large number of agents (for instance, when routing drivers over highway networks or data packets over the Internet). While these fields have traditionally used a top down approach by directly controlling the behaviour of each agent in the system, attention has recently turned to an indirect approach allowing the agents to function independently while providing incentives that lead them to behave in the desired way. Instead of the traditional assumption of equilibrium behaviour, researchers opt increasingly for the evolutionary paradigm and consider the dynamics of behaviour in populations of agents employing simple, myopic decision rules.

Advances In Neural Information Processing Systems 19

Author: Bernhard Schölkopf
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 0262195682
Size: 42.82 MB
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The annual conference on NIPS is the flagship conference on neural computation. It draws top academic researchers from around the world & is considered to be a showcase conference for new developments in network algorithms & architectures. This volume contains all of the papers presented at NIPS 2006.

Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung Und Statistik

Author: Robert Hafner
Publisher: Springer-Verlag
ISBN: 3709169445
Size: 14.28 MB
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Das Buch ist eine Einführung in die Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung und mathematische Statistik auf mittlerem mathematischen Niveau. Die Pädagogik der Darstellung unterscheidet sich in wesentlichen Teilen – Einführung der Modelle für unabhängige und abhängige Experimente, Darstellung des Suffizienzbegriffes, Ausführung des Zusammenhanges zwischen Testtheorie und Theorie der Bereichschätzung, allgemeine Diskussion der Modellentwicklung – erheblich von der anderer vergleichbarer Lehrbücher. Die Darstellung ist, soweit auf diesem Niveau möglich, mathematisch exakt, verzichtet aber bewußt und ebenfalls im Gegensatz zu vergleichbaren Texten auf die Erörterung von Meßbarkeitsfragen. Der Leser wird dadurch erheblich entlastet, ohne daß wesentliche Substanz verlorengeht. Das Buch will allen, die an der Anwendung der Statistik auf solider Grundlage interessiert sind, eine Einführung bieten, und richtet sich an Studierende und Dozenten aller Studienrichtungen, für die mathematische Statistik ein Werkzeug ist.

Social Computing Behavioral Cultural Modeling And Prediction

Author: Shanchieh Jay Yang
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3642290477
Size: 42.39 MB
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This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 5th International Conference on Social Computing, Behavioral-Cultural Modeling and Prediction, held in College Park, MD, USA, in April 2012. The 43 revised papers presented in this volume were carefully reviewed and selected from 76 submissions. The papers cover a wide range of topics including economics, public health, and terrorist activities, as well as utilize a broad variety of methodologies, e.g., machine learning, cultural modeling and cognitive modeling.

Breakthroughs In Decision Science And Risk Analysis

Author: Louis Anthony Cox, Jr.
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118938895
Size: 60.55 MB
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Discover recent powerful advances in the theory, methods, and applications of decision and risk analysis Focusing on modern advances and innovations in the field of decision analysis (DA), Breakthroughs in Decision Science and Risk Analysis presents theories and methods for making, improving, and learning from significant practical decisions. The book explains these new methods and important applications in an accessible and stimulating style for readers from multiple backgrounds, including psychology, economics, statistics, engineering, risk analysis, operations research, and management science. Highlighting topics not conventionally found in DA textbooks, the book illustrates genuine advances in practical decision science, including developments and trends that depart from, or break with, the standard axiomatic DA paradigm in fundamental and useful ways. The book features methods for coping with realistic decision-making challenges such as online adaptive learning algorithms, innovations in robust decision-making, and the use of a variety of models to explain available data and recommend actions. In addition, the book illustrates how these techniques can be applied to dramatically improve risk management decisions. Breakthroughs in Decision Science and Risk Analysis also includes: An emphasis on new approaches rather than only classical and traditional ideas Discussions of how decision and risk analysis can be applied to improve high-stakes policy and management decisions Coverage of the potential value and realism of decision science within applications in financial, health, safety, environmental, business, engineering, and security risk management Innovative methods for deciding what actions to take when decision problems are not completely known or described or when useful probabilities cannot be specified Recent breakthroughs in the psychology and brain science of risky decisions, mathematical foundations and techniques, and integration with learning and pattern recognition methods from computational intelligence Breakthroughs in Decision Science and Risk Analysis is an ideal reference for researchers, consultants, and practitioners in the fields of decision science, operations research, business, management science, engineering, statistics, and mathematics. The book is also an appropriate guide for managers, analysts, and decision and policy makers in the areas of finance, health and safety, environment, business, engineering, and security risk management.