Download risk analysis a quantitative guide in pdf or read risk analysis a quantitative guide in pdf online books in PDF, EPUB and Mobi Format. Click Download or Read Online button to get risk analysis a quantitative guide in pdf book now. This site is like a library, Use search box in the widget to get ebook that you want.



Risk Analysis

Author: David Vose
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0470512849
Size: 33.58 MB
Format: PDF, ePub, Mobi
View: 3224
Download and Read
Risk Analysis concerns itself with the quantification of risk, the modeling of identified risks and how to make decisions from those models. Quantitative risk analysis (QRA) using Monte Carlo simulation offers a powerful and precise method for dealing with the uncertainty and variability of a problem. By providing the building blocks the author guides the reader through the necessary steps to produce an accurate risk analysis model and offers general and specific techniques to cope with most modeling problems. A wide range of solved problems is used to illustrate these techniques and how they can be used together to solve otherwise complex problems.

Quantitative Risk Analysis

Author: David Vose
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN:
Size: 56.38 MB
Format: PDF, ePub, Docs
View: 475
Download and Read
This book concentrates on the accuracy of risk modelling rather than the management of risk analysis. It provides a comprehensive guide to modelling of uncertainty using spreadsheets and Monte Carlo software on standard PCs. It includes sufficient probability and statistics theory and provides the basic information necessary for a simple risk analysis model.

Risk Analysis

Author: David Vose
Publisher: Wiley
ISBN: 9780471997658
Size: 69.60 MB
Format: PDF, ePub, Docs
View: 6672
Download and Read
Risk Analysis A Quantitative Guide Risk and uncertainty are key features of most business and government problems and need to be understood for rational decisions to be made. This book concerns itself with the quantification of risk, the modelling of identified risks and how to make decisions from those models. Following on from the success of the previous edition of this clearly written and highly regarded book, this edition is extensively revised and updated and will provide an invaluable practical guide for beginners and experienced practitioners alike. Quantitative risk analysis (QRA) using Monte Carlo simulation offers a powerful and precise method for dealing with the uncertainty and variability of a problem. By providing the building blocks the author guides the reader through the necessary steps to produce an accurate risk analysis model and offers general and specific techniques to cope with most modelling problems. A wide range of solved problems is used to illustrate these techniques and how they can be used together to solve otherwise complex problems. Reviews of the first edition "It identifies the various facets of risk analysis and provides a valuable reference to the concepts and techniques employed." Project, 1997 "It clearly explains many essential aspects of quantitative risk analysis . provides valuable techniques and sound professional advice." Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, Vol. 12, 1999 "The book offers a powerful method for dealing with risk and uncertainty." Zentralblatt für Mathematik, Band 908, 1999

Risk Analysis

Author: David Vose
Publisher: Wiley
ISBN: 9780471997658
Size: 60.69 MB
Format: PDF, ePub, Docs
View: 3619
Download and Read
Risk Analysis A Quantitative Guide Risk and uncertainty are key features of most business and government problems and need to be understood for rational decisions to be made. This book concerns itself with the quantification of risk, the modelling of identified risks and how to make decisions from those models. Following on from the success of the previous edition of this clearly written and highly regarded book, this edition is extensively revised and updated and will provide an invaluable practical guide for beginners and experienced practitioners alike. Quantitative risk analysis (QRA) using Monte Carlo simulation offers a powerful and precise method for dealing with the uncertainty and variability of a problem. By providing the building blocks the author guides the reader through the necessary steps to produce an accurate risk analysis model and offers general and specific techniques to cope with most modelling problems. A wide range of solved problems is used to illustrate these techniques and how they can be used together to solve otherwise complex problems. Reviews of the first edition "It identifies the various facets of risk analysis and provides a valuable reference to the concepts and techniques employed." Project, 1997 "It clearly explains many essential aspects of quantitative risk analysis . provides valuable techniques and sound professional advice." Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, Vol. 12, 1999 "The book offers a powerful method for dealing with risk and uncertainty." Zentralblatt für Mathematik, Band 908, 1999

Uncertainty

Author: Millett Granger Morgan
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9780521427449
Size: 32.26 MB
Format: PDF, ePub, Docs
View: 3492
Download and Read
The authors explain the ways in which uncertainty is an important factor in the problems of risk and policy analysis. This book outlines the source and nature of uncertainty, discusses techniques for obtaining and using expert judgment, and reviews a variety of simple and advanced methods for analyzing uncertainty. Powerful computer environments and good graphical techniques for displaying uncertainty are just two of the more advanced topics addressed in later chapters.

Quantitative Risk Assessment

Author: Terje Aven
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1139496433
Size: 49.45 MB
Format: PDF
View: 4947
Download and Read
Quantitative risk assessments cannot eliminate risk, nor can they resolve trade-offs. They can, however, guide principled risk management and reduction - if the quality of assessment is high and decision makers understand how to use it. This book builds a unifying scientific framework for discussing and evaluating the quality of risk assessments and whether they are fit for purpose. Uncertainty is a central topic. In practice, uncertainties about inputs are rarely reflected in assessments, with the result that many safety measures are considered unjustified. Other topics include the meaning of a probability, the use of probability models, the use of Bayesian ideas and techniques, and the use of risk assessment in a practical decision-making context. Written for professionals, as well as graduate students and researchers, the book assumes basic probability, statistics and risk assessment methods. Examples make concepts concrete, and three extended case studies show the scientific framework in action.

Quantitative Risk Management

Author: Thomas S. Coleman
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118235932
Size: 11.32 MB
Format: PDF, ePub, Docs
View: 3926
Download and Read
State of the art risk management techniques and practices—supplemented with interactive analytics All too often risk management books focus on risk measurement details without taking a broader view. Quantitative Risk Management delivers a synthesis of common sense management together with the cutting-edge tools of modern theory. This book presents a road map for tactical and strategic decision making designed to control risk and capitalize on opportunities. Most provocatively it challenges the conventional wisdom that "risk management" is or ever should be delegated to a separate department. Good managers have always known that managing risk is central to a financial firm and must be the responsibility of anyone who contributes to the profit of the firm. A guide to risk management for financial firms and managers in the post-crisis world, Quantitative Risk Management updates the techniques and tools used to measure and monitor risk. These are often mathematical and specialized, but the ideas are simple. The book starts with how we think about risk and uncertainty, then turns to a practical explanation of how risk is measured in today's complex financial markets. Covers everything from risk measures, probability, and regulatory issues to portfolio risk analytics and reporting Includes interactive graphs and computer code for portfolio risk and analytics Explains why tactical and strategic decisions must be made at every level of the firm and portfolio Providing the models, tools, and techniques firms need to build the best risk management practices, Quantitative Risk Management is an essential volume from an experienced manager and quantitative analyst.

Foundations Of Risk Analysis

Author: Terje Aven
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 111994578X
Size: 59.90 MB
Format: PDF, ePub
View: 5971
Download and Read
Foundations of Risk Analysis presents the issues core to risk analysis – understanding what risk means, expressing risk, building risk models, addressing uncertainty, and applying probability models to real problems. The author provides the readers with the knowledge and basic thinking they require to successfully manage risk and uncertainty to support decision making. This updated edition reflects recent developments on risk and uncertainty concepts, representations and treatment. New material in Foundations of Risk Analysis includes: An up to date presentation of how to understand, define and describe risk based on research carried out in recent years. A new definition of the concept of vulnerability consistent with the understanding of risk. Reflections on the need for seeing beyond probabilities to measure/describe uncertainties. A presentation and discussion of a method for assessing the importance of assumptions (uncertainty factors) in the background knowledge that the subjective probabilities are based on A brief introduction to approaches that produce interval (imprecise) probabilities instead of exact probabilities. In addition the new version provides a number of other improvements, for example, concerning the use of cost-benefit analyses and the As Low As Reasonably Practicable (ALARP) principle. Foundations of Risk Analysis provides a framework for understanding, conducting and using risk analysis suitable for advanced undergraduates, graduates, analysts and researchers from statistics, engineering, finance, medicine and the physical sciences, as well as for managers facing decision making problems involving risk and uncertainty.

Principles Of Risk Analysis

Author: Charles Yoe
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1439857504
Size: 16.21 MB
Format: PDF, ePub, Docs
View: 2001
Download and Read
In every decision context there are things we know and things we do not know. Risk analysis uses science and the best available evidence to assess what we know—and it is intentional in the way it addresses the importance of the things we don’t know. Principles of Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty lays out the tasks of risk analysis in a straightforward, conceptual manner that is consistent with the risk models of all communities of practice. It answers the questions "what is risk analysis?" and "how do I do this?" Distilling the common principles of the many risk tribes and dialects into serviceable definitions and narratives, the book provides a foundation for the practice of risk analysis and decision making under uncertainty for professionals from all walks of life. In the first part of the book, readers learn the language, models, and concepts of risk analysis and its three component tasks—risk management, assessment, and communication. The second part of the book supplies the tools, techniques, and methodologies to help readers apply the principles. From problem identification and brainstorming to model building and choosing a probability distribution, the author walks readers through the how-to of risk assessment. Addressing the critical task of risk communication, he explains how to present the results of assessments and how to develop effective messages. The book’s simple and straightforward style—based on the author’s decades of experience as a risk analyst, trainer, and educator—strips away the mysterious aura that often accompanies risk analysis. It describes the principles in a manner that empowers readers to begin the practice of risk analysis, to better understand and use the models and practice of their individual fields, and to gain access to the rich and sophisticated professional literature on risk analysis. Additional exercises as well as a free student version of the Palisade Corporation DecisionTools® Suite software and files used in the preparation of this book are available for download.

Quantitative Environmental Risk Analysis For Human Health

Author: Robert A. Fjeld
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0470096195
Size: 76.18 MB
Format: PDF
View: 1294
Download and Read
A COMPREHENSIVE TEXTBOOK AND REFERENCE FOR QUANTITATIVE ENVIRONMENTAL RISK ANALYSIS FOR BOTH CHEMICAL AND RADIOACTIVE CONTAMINANTS Environmental risk analysis is complex and interdisciplinary; this book explains the fundamental concepts and analytical methods in each essential discipline. With an emphasis on concepts and applications of quantitative tools plus coverage of analysis of both chemical and radioactive contaminants, this is a comprehensive resource. After an introduction and an overview of the basics of environmental modeling, the book covers key elements in environmental risk analysis methodology, including: Release assessment and source characterization Migration of contaminants in various media, including surface water, groundwater, the atmosphere, and the food chain Exposure assessment Basic human toxicology and dose-response Risk characterization, including dose-response modeling and analysis Risk management process and methods Risk communication and public participation This reference also relates risk analysis to current environmental laws and regulations. An ideal textbook for graduate students and upper-level undergraduates in various engineering and quantitative science disciplines, especially civil and environmental engineering, it is also a great reference for practitioners in industry, environmental consulting firms, and regulatory agencies.