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Shaping The Next One Hundred Years

Author: Robert J. Lempert
Publisher: Rand Corporation
ISBN: 0833034855
Size: 74.55 MB
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A sophisticated reader ought to view with great skepticism the prospect of answering questions about the long-term future. The checkered history of predicting the future-from the famous declarations that humans would never fly to the Limits to Growth study to claims about the "New Economy"-has dissuaded policymakers from considering the effects of their decisions more than a few months or years ahead. However, today's choices will significantly influence the course of the twenty-first century. New analytic methods, enabled by modern computers, may transform our ability to reason systematically about the long term. This report reviews traditional methods of grappling with the morrow, from narratives to scenario analysis, which fail to address the multiplicity of plausible long-term futures. The authors demonstrate a quantitative approach to long-term policy analysis (LTPA). Robust decision methods enable decisionmakers to examine a vast range of plausible futures and design near-term, often adaptive, strategies to be robust across them. Reframing the question "What will the long-term future bring?" as "How can we choose actions today that will be consistent with our long-term interests?" these methods provide powerful analytic support to humans' innate capacity for "what-if-ing." Choosing the challenge of sustainable development as an example, the authors discuss how these methods may be applied to real-world LTPA and a wide range of other challenges of decisionmaking under conditions of deep uncertainty.

Systems Of Systems Engineering

Author: Mo Jamshidi
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 9781420065893
Size: 33.19 MB
Format: PDF, Kindle
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As technology presses forward, scientific projects are becoming increasingly complex. The international space station, for example, includes over 100 major components, carried aloft during 88 spaces flights which were organized by over 16 nations. The need for improved system integration between the elements of an overall larger technological system has sparked further development of systems of systems (SoS) as a solution for achieving interoperability and superior coordination between heterogeneous systems. Systems of Systems Engineering: Principles and Applications provides engineers with a definitive reference on this newly emerging technology, which is being embraced by such engineering giants as Boeing, Lockheed Martin, and Raytheon. The book covers the complete range of fundamental SoS topics, including modeling, simulation, architecture, control, communication, optimization, and applications. Containing the contributions of pioneers at the forefront of SoS development, the book also offers insight into applications in national security, transportation, energy, and defense as well as healthcare, the service industry, and information technology. System of systems (SoS) is still a relatively new concept, and in time numerous problems and open-ended issues must be addressed to realize its great potential. THis book offers a first look at this rapidly developing technology so that engineers are better equipped to face such challenges.

A World Without Ice

Author: Henry Pollack Ph.D.
Publisher: Penguin
ISBN: 1101524855
Size: 15.80 MB
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A co-winner of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize offers a clear-eyed explanation of the planet’s imperiled ice. Much has been written about global warming, but the crucial relationship between people and ice has received little focus—until now. As one of the world’s leading experts on climate change, Henry Pollack provides an accessible, comprehensive survey of ice as a force of nature, and the potential consequences as we face the possibility of a world without ice. A World Without Ice traces the effect of mountain glaciers on supplies of drinking water and agricultural irrigation, as well as the current results of melting permafrost and shrinking Arctic sea ice—a situation that has degraded the habitat of numerous animals and sparked an international race for seabed oil and minerals. Catastrophic possibilities loom, including rising sea levels and subsequent flooding of lowlying regions worldwide, and the ultimate displacement of millions of coastal residents. A World Without Ice answers our most urgent questions about this pending crisis, laying out the necessary steps for managing the unavoidable and avoiding the unmanageable.

Public Policy Analysis

Author: Wil A. H. Thissen
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1461446015
Size: 13.82 MB
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Traditional policy analysis approaches are characterized by a focus on system modeling and choosing among policy alternatives. While successful in many cases, this approach has been increasingly criticized for being technocratic and ignoring the behavioral and political dimensions of most policy processes. In recent decades, increased awareness of the multi-actor, multiple perspective, and poly-centric character of many policy processes has led to the development of a variety of different perspectives on the styles and roles of policy analysis, and to new analytical tools and approaches – for example, argumentative approaches, participative policy analysis, and negotiation support. As a result, the field has become multi-faceted and somewhat fragmented. Public Policy Analysis: New Developments acknowledges the variety of approaches and provides a synthesis of the traditional and new approaches to policy analysis. It provides an overview and typology of different types of policy analytic activities, characterizing them according to differences in character and leading values, and linking them to a variety of theoretical notions on policymaking. Thereby, it provides assistance to both end users and analysts in choosing an appropriate approach given a specific policy situation. By broadening the traditional approach and methods to include the analysis of actors and actor networks related to the policy issue at hand, it deepens the state of the art in certain areas. While the main focus of the book is on the cognitive dimensions of policy analysis, it also links the policy analysis process to the policymaking process, showing how to identify and involve all relevant stakeholders in the process, and how to create favorable conditions for use of the results of policy analytic efforts by the policy actors. The book has as its major objective to describe the state-of-the-art and the latest developments in ex-ante policy analysis. It is divided into two parts. Part I explores and structures policy analysis developments, the development and description of approaches to diagnose policy situations, design policy analytic efforts, and policy process conditions. Part II focuses on recent developments regarding models and modeling for policy analysis, placing modeling approaches in the context of the variety of conditions and approaches elaborated in Part I.

The Geopolitical Impact Of Climate Mitigation Policies

Author: Sijbren de Jong
Publisher: The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies
ISBN: 9492102552
Size: 69.80 MB
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At the Paris Climate Conference held in December 2015, 195 countries adopted the Paris Agreement – the first universal, legally binding global climate deal. The signatory parties committed themselves to a global action plan that aims to keep global warming to well below 2°C and to limit the global temperature increase to 1.5°C. As part of our Geo-Economics research initiative, The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies has investigated the geopolitical consequences of climate mitigation and energy transition among a number of countries richly endowed in hydrocarbons who potentially stand to lose a significant part of their revenue stream as a result of demand changes for fossil fuels. If demand for oil and gas demand were to decrease as a result of successful climate mitigation policies, the financial and social stability of these countries will – ceteris paribus – be negatively affected, especially if they fail to reform their domestic economies. The presented study, entitled The Geopolitical Impact of Climate Mitigation Policies, employs a number of innovative investigative methods and analytical approaches to generate insights regarding sociopolitical stability in the wake of the world’s transition to renewable energy systems in a number of major oil- and gas-exporting nations near Europe. On top of this, the report looks closely at the energy situation in Sub-Saharan Africa and analyzes in detail which choices developing nations face with respect to their future energy mix. Given the deep, and complex relationship between the global energy sector and international politics, these findings have numerous implications – both short and long term – for our future efforts to combat climate change while simultaneously fending off any consequential drivers of sociopolitical instability.

Marrying Prevention And Resiliency

Author: Brian A. Jackson
Publisher: Rand Corp
ISBN: 9780833046321
Size: 54.81 MB
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The uncertain nature of the terrorist threat is a fundamental challenge in the design of counterterrorism policy. To deal with this uncertainty, the author recommends a capabilities-based, portfolio approach to terrorism prevention planning, drawing examples from aviation security policy. While traditional terrorism-prevention measures seek to prevent all damage by stopping them completely, mitigation and resiliency measures buy a lower, but more certain, payoff: preventing only some of the damage from attacks, but doing so predictably across the many different ways in which threats might become manifest. In a prevention and mitigation portfolio, some measures would reach for the highest payoff of completely preventing attacks, while others would provide a more-stable protective return by limiting the damages any terrorist operation or other incident. Protective portfolios should be assessed to determine which will perform well across a range of possible futures and be judged less sensitive to threat uncertainty -- and therefore more attractive given an uncertain future.