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Simple Adaptive Strategies

Author: Sergiu Hart
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 9814401595
Size: 59.65 MB
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This volume collects almost two decades of joint work of Sergiu Hart and Andreu Mas-Colell on game dynamics and equilibria. The starting point was the introduction of the adaptive strategy called regret-matching, which on the one hand is simple and natural, and on the other is shown to lead to correlated equilibria. This initial finding — boundedly rational behavior that yields fully rational outcomes in the long run — generated a large body of work on the dynamics of simple adaptive strategies. In particular, a natural condition on dynamics was identified: uncoupledness, whereby decision-makers do not know each other's payoffs and utilities (so, while chosen actions may be observable, the motivations are not). This condition turns out to severely limit the equilibria that can be reached. Interestingly, there are connections to the behavioral and neurobiological sciences and also to computer science and engineering (e.g., via notions of “regret”). Simple Adaptive Strategies is self-contained and unified in its presentation. Together with the formal treatment of concepts, theorems, and proofs, significant space is devoted to informal explanations and illuminating examples. It may be used for advanced graduate courses — in game theory, economics, mathematics, computer science, engineering — and for further research. Contents:Correlated Equilibria:Existence of Correlated Equilibria (Sergiu Hart and David Schmeidler)Regret Matching:A Simple Adaptive Procedure Leading to Correlated Equilibrium (Sergiu Hart and Andreu Mas-Colell)A General Class of Adaptive Strategies (Sergiu Hart and Andreu Mas-Colell)A Reinforcement Procedure Leading to Correlated Equilibrium (Sergiu Hart and Andreu Mas-Colell)Regret-Based Continuous-Time Dynamics (Sergiu Hart and Andreu Mas-Colell)General Procedures Leading to Correlated Equilibria (Amotz Cahn)Uncoupled Dynamics:Uncoupled Dynamics Do Not Lead to Nash Equilibrium (Sergiu Hart and Andreu Mas-Colell)Stochastic Uncoupled Dynamics and Nash Equilibrium (Sergiu Hart and Andreu Mas-Colell)Uncoupled Automata and Pure Nash Equilibria (Yakov Babichenko)How Long to Equilibrium? The Communication Complexity of Uncoupled Equilibrium Procedures (Sergiu Hart and Yishay Mansour)Dynamics and Equilibria:Adaptive Heuristics (Sergiu Hart)Nash Equilibrium and Dynamics (Sergiu Hart) Readership: Graduate students and researchers in game theory, economic theory, econometrics, computer science and engineering. Keywords:Game Theory;Dynamics;Equilibrium;Nash Equilibrium;Correlated Equilibrium;Adaptive Dynamics;Simple Strategies;Regret-Based Strategies;Uncoupled Dynamics;Bounded RationalityKey Features:Prominent authors (two world-leading game theorists)Significant cutting-edge body of researchNovel ideas and insights that are useful and applicable in many areasReviews: "A fundamental issue with any concept of equilibrium, including Nash and correlated equilibria, is to define the process by which equilibrium is attained. The work of Professors Hart and Mas-Colell has been the deepest in this area, especially in defining conditions (‘uncoupled dynamics’) which reflect naturally the information available in real economic interactions. Their body of results is essential to study of these fundamental problems."; Kenneth J Arrow Stanford University, USA "In social as well as physical systems, equilibrium is of fundamental importance. Reaching equilibrium is at least as important as being there. In the last quarter century, research that investigates how social or game-theoretic equilibrium is reached has been spearheaded bySergiu Hart and Andreu Mas-Colell. The most outstanding works in this area are gathered in the book before us — a must for anyone interested in this dynamic area of emerging economic research." Robert J Aumann Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel "The question of learning and convergence to equilibrium is of critical importance to the foundations and applications of game theory. But after half a century of research there are no universally accepted answers: different assumptions about players' information and learning dynamics lead to different conclusions. The Hart and Mas-Colell book describes fascinating directions of research on this subject developed by two distinguished authors and their collaborators over the last dozen years." Ehud Kalai Northwestern University, USA "In this collection two leading game theorists show that various forms of equilibrium can be learned by simple and natural learning strategies that put minimal demands on the players' knowledge and level of rationality. It represents a major contribution to one of the most important topics in modern game theory."; Peyton Young Oxford University, UK

The Language Of Game Theory

Author: Adam Brandenburger
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 981451344X
Size: 40.90 MB
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This volume contains eight papers written by Adam Brandenburger and his co-authors over a period of 25 years. These papers are part of a program to reconstruct game theory in order to make how players reason about a game a central feature of the theory. The program OCo now called epistemic game theory OCo extends the classical definition of a game model to include not only the game matrix or game tree, but also a description of how the players reason about one another (including their reasoning about other players' reasoning). With this richer mathematical framework, it becomes possible to determine the implications of how players reason for how a game is played. Epistemic game theory includes traditional equilibrium-based theory as a special case, but allows for a wide range of non-equilibrium behavior. Sample Chapter(s). Foreword (39 KB). Introduction (132 KB). Chapter 1: An Impossibility Theorem on Beliefs in Games (299 KB). Contents: An Impossibility Theorem on Beliefs in Games (Adam Brandenburger and H Jerome Keisler); Hierarchies of Beliefs and Common Knowledge (Adam Brandenburger and Eddie Dekel); Rationalizability and Correlated Equilibria (Adam Brandenburger and Eddie Dekel); Intrinsic Correlation in Games (Adam Brandenburger and Amanda Friedenberg); Epistemic Conditions for Nash Equilibrium (Robert Aumann and Adam Brandenburger); Lexicographic Probabilities and Choice Under Uncertainty (Lawrence Blume, Adam Brandenburger, and Eddie Dekel); Admissibility in Games (Adam Brandenburger, Amanda Friedenberg and H Jerome Keisler); Self-Admissible Sets (Adam Brandenburger and Amanda Friedenberg). Readership: Graduate students and researchers in the fields of game theory, theoretical computer science, mathematical logic and social neuroscience."

Uncertainty Within Economic Models

Author: Hansen Lars Peter
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 9814578134
Size: 78.55 MB
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Written by Lars Peter Hansen (Nobel Laureate in Economics, 2013) and Thomas Sargent (Nobel Laureate in Economics, 2011), Uncertainty within Economic Models includes articles adapting and applying robust control theory to problems in economics and finance. This book extends rational expectations models by including agents who doubt their models and adopt precautionary decisions designed to protect themselves from adverse consequences of model misspecification. This behavior has consequences for what are ordinarily interpreted as market prices of risk, but big parts of which should actually be interpreted as market prices of model uncertainty. The chapters discuss ways of calibrating agents' fears of model misspecification in quantitative contexts.

The Language Of Game Theory

Author: Adam Brandenburger
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 9814513458
Size: 63.60 MB
Format: PDF
View: 1730
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This volume contains eight papers written by Adam Brandenburger and his co-authors over a period of 25 years. These papers are part of a program to reconstruct game theory in order to make how players reason about a game a central feature of the theory. The program — now called epistemic game theory — extends the classical definition of a game model to include not only the game matrix or game tree, but also a description of how the players reason about one another (including their reasoning about other players' reasoning). With this richer mathematical framework, it becomes possible to determine the implications of how players reason for how a game is played. Epistemic game theory includes traditional equilibrium-based theory as a special case, but allows for a wide range of non-equilibrium behavior. Contents:An Impossibility Theorem on Beliefs in Games (Adam Brandenburger and H Jerome Keisler)Hierarchies of Beliefs and Common Knowledge (Adam Brandenburger and Eddie Dekel)Rationalizability and Correlated Equilibria (Adam Brandenburger and Eddie Dekel)Intrinsic Correlation in Games (Adam Brandenburger and Amanda Friedenberg)Epistemic Conditions for Nash Equilibrium (Robert Aumann and Adam Brandenburger)Lexicographic Probabilities and Choice Under Uncertainty (Lawrence Blume, Adam Brandenburger, and Eddie Dekel)Admissibility in Games (Adam Brandenburger, Amanda Friedenberg and H Jerome Keisler)Self-Admissible Sets (Adam Brandenburger and Amanda Friedenberg) Readership: Graduate students and researchers in the fields of game theory, theoretical computer science, mathematical logic and social neuroscience. Keywords:Game Theory;Epistemic Game Theory;Foundations;Applied Mathematics;Social Neuroscience;Rationalizability;Nash Equilibrium;Probability;UncertaintyKey Features:Focuses on epistemic game theory — an emerging approach to game theoryLikely strong interest in these tools from other disciplines, includingtheoretical computer science, mathematical logic, and social neuroscienceProminent co-author team: Robert Aumann (Hebrew University, Nobel Laureate 2005); Lawrence Blume (Cornell University); Eddie Dekel (Northwestern University and Tel Aviv University); Amanda Freedeneurg (Arizona State University); H Jerome Keisler (University of Wisconsin Madison)Reviews: "Adam Brandenburger's work on the knowledge requirements implicit in game theory has become classic. These are of profound importance in understanding the relevance of game theory and, indeed, economic theory in general to the real economy. It is very good to have them collected, with an introduction that brings out the underlying themes." Kenneth J Arrow Stanford University, USA "Over the past decade epistemic game theory has emerged as one of the principled alternatives to more traditional approaches to economic interactions and Adam Brandenburger has played a central role in that emergence. For anyone interested in epistemic game theory, or game theory in general, this book is a must have. But even more important is the opportunity this volume, and epistemic game theory in general, presents to empirical scientists. As Brandenburger notes in his Introduction, until now epistemic game theory has been a theoretical discipline. This volume should make it clear, however, that it could be — and likely soon will be — an empirical undertaking. Anyone interested in behavioral, psychological, or neurobiological studies of how we make decisions during strategic play will find in this volume a profoundly fascinating set of empirically testable hypotheses just waiting to be examined." Paul Glimcher New York University, USA "Three hundred years ago, Francis Waldegrave found the first minimax solution of a matrix game. But in his correspondence with mathematicians Pierre Rémond de Montmort and Nicolaus Bernoulli, Waldegrave counseled that epistemic considerations involving knowledge, beliefs, uncertainty, and incomplete information also mattered. The principal practitioners of game theory, with the notable exceptions of John Harsanyi and Robert Aumann, have ignored this advice. In recent years, these two theorists have been joined by Adam Brandenburger, whose work on epistemic game theory has been collected in this splendid volume. Eight classic papers by Brandenburger with a number of co-authors present an authoritative view of the field while an insightful introduction provides a roadmap to research both present and future." Harold W Kuhn Princeton University, USA "This book features a collection of foundational papers by Adam Brandenburger in epistemic game theory. Though still evolving, this approach marks a tectonic shift in game theory by offering a new, epistemic dimension which might be compared to the introduction of synchronized sound to motion pictures in the early 20th century: it might not immediately provide a complete picture, but it has the potential of changing the field forever." Sergei N Artemov The Graduate Center of the City University of New York, USA "Adam Brandenburger has played a leading role in developing the program of epistemic game theory, the goal of which is to provide a deeper and clearer foundation for game theory as a whole. This volume collects a remarkable body of work by Brandenburger and his collaborators, in which penetrating conceptual analysis and the development of a rich mathematical theory go hand in hand. The work offers much of great interest to computer scientists, who will see many connections with their study of recursive and corecursive structures, of processes and their logics, and of multi-agent systems; and to mathematicians and logicians interested in making precise models of the reflexive structures inherent in systems containing rational agents who can reason about the system of which they form a part. I hope that this timely collection will help to stimulate cross-disciplinary work on these fundamental topics." Samson Abramsky Oxford University, UK "Games are playgrounds where players meet and interact, guided by streams of information and opinion. Adam Brandenburger's work has been instrumental in creating a new rich epistemic framework doing justice to both games and their players. This timely book will help a broader audience learn and appreciate the resulting theory." Johan van Benthem University of Amsterdam, The Netherlands and Stanford University, USA "Economics, so grounded in the notion of equilibrium, has required substantial foundational work on reasoning about reasoning — epistemics — in interacting situations (games). Yet, if plain reasoning is difficult enough, just imagine epistemics. Adam Brandenburger, as is evident from the elegant and clear chapters of this book, is a master of the trade. His highly regarded research, always subtle and deep, is of the kind that establishes milestones while at the same time opening up vistas to new, and unexpected, frontiers. This book is specialized, certainly, but it is a must." Andreu Mas-Colell Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Spain “The papers in this book had a huge impact on the field, created an inter– and multi–discipliner research within the intersection of economics, philosophy, mathematics and computer science, and also inspired countless amount of PhD dissertations. Brandenburger's work contains very precise and beautiful mathematics, an earthly reading of epistemics and a puzzling innovation.” Zentralblatt MATH