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The Bugs Book

Author: David Lunn
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1584888490
Size: 35.60 MB
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Bayesian statistical methods have become widely used for data analysis and modelling in recent years, and the BUGS software has become the most popular software for Bayesian analysis worldwide. Authored by the team that originally developed this software, The BUGS Book provides a practical introduction to this program and its use. The text presents complete coverage of all the functionalities of BUGS, including prediction, missing data, model criticism, and prior sensitivity. It also features a large number of worked examples and a wide range of applications from various disciplines. The book introduces regression models, techniques for criticism and comparison, and a wide range of modelling issues before going into the vital area of hierarchical models, one of the most common applications of Bayesian methods. It deals with essentials of modelling without getting bogged down in complexity. The book emphasises model criticism, model comparison, sensitivity analysis to alternative priors, and thoughtful choice of prior distributions—all those aspects of the "art" of modelling that are easily overlooked in more theoretical expositions. More pragmatic than ideological, the authors systematically work through the large range of "tricks" that reveal the real power of the BUGS software, for example, dealing with missing data, censoring, grouped data, prediction, ranking, parameter constraints, and so on. Many of the examples are biostatistical, but they do not require domain knowledge and are generalisable to a wide range of other application areas. Full code and data for examples, exercises, and some solutions can be found on the book’s website.

Applied Bayesian Hierarchical Methods

Author: Peter D. Congdon
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 9781584887218
Size: 40.31 MB
Format: PDF, Kindle
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The use of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for estimating hierarchical models involves complex data structures and is often described as a revolutionary development. An intermediate-level treatment of Bayesian hierarchical models and their applications, Applied Bayesian Hierarchical Methods demonstrates the advantages of a Bayesian approach to data sets involving inferences for collections of related units or variables and in methods where parameters can be treated as random collections. Emphasizing computational issues, the book provides examples of the following application settings: meta-analysis, data structured in space or time, multilevel and longitudinal data, multivariate data, nonlinear regression, and survival time data. For the worked examples, the text mainly employs the WinBUGS package, allowing readers to explore alternative likelihood assumptions, regression structures, and assumptions on prior densities. It also incorporates BayesX code, which is particularly useful in nonlinear regression. To demonstrate MCMC sampling from first principles, the author includes worked examples using the R package. Through illustrative data analysis and attention to statistical computing, this book focuses on the practical implementation of Bayesian hierarchical methods. It also discusses several issues that arise when applying Bayesian techniques in hierarchical and random effects models.

Bayesian Modeling Using Winbugs

Author: Ioannis Ntzoufras
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118210352
Size: 57.26 MB
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A hands-on introduction to the principles of Bayesian modeling using WinBUGS Bayesian Modeling Using WinBUGS provides an easily accessible introduction to the use of WinBUGS programming techniques in a variety of Bayesian modeling settings. The author provides an accessible treatment of the topic, offering readers a smooth introduction to the principles of Bayesian modeling with detailed guidance on the practical implementation of key principles. The book begins with a basic introduction to Bayesian inference and the WinBUGS software and goes on to cover key topics, including: Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms in Bayesian inference Generalized linear models Bayesian hierarchical models Predictive distribution and model checking Bayesian model and variable evaluation Computational notes and screen captures illustrate the use of both WinBUGS as well as R software to apply the discussed techniques. Exercises at the end of each chapter allow readers to test their understanding of the presented concepts and all data sets and code are available on the book's related Web site. Requiring only a working knowledge of probability theory and statistics, Bayesian Modeling Using WinBUGS serves as an excellent book for courses on Bayesian statistics at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. It is also a valuable reference for researchers and practitioners in the fields of statistics, actuarial science, medicine, and the social sciences who use WinBUGS in their everyday work.

Bayesian Methods

Author: Jeff Gill
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1439862494
Size: 46.85 MB
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An Update of the Most Popular Graduate-Level Introductions to Bayesian Statistics for Social Scientists Now that Bayesian modeling has become standard, MCMC is well understood and trusted, and computing power continues to increase, Bayesian Methods: A Social and Behavioral Sciences Approach, Third Edition focuses more on implementation details of the procedures and less on justifying procedures. The expanded examples reflect this updated approach. New to the Third Edition A chapter on Bayesian decision theory, covering Bayesian and frequentist decision theory as well as the connection of empirical Bayes with James–Stein estimation A chapter on the practical implementation of MCMC methods using the BUGS software Greatly expanded chapter on hierarchical models that shows how this area is well suited to the Bayesian paradigm Many new applications from a variety of social science disciplines Double the number of exercises, with 20 now in each chapter Updated BaM package in R, including new datasets, code, and procedures for calling BUGS packages from R This bestselling, highly praised text continues to be suitable for a range of courses, including an introductory course or a computing-centered course. It shows students in the social and behavioral sciences how to use Bayesian methods in practice, preparing them for sophisticated, real-world work in the field.

Bayesian Methods For Ecology

Author: Michael A. McCarthy
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 113946387X
Size: 35.32 MB
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The interest in using Bayesian methods in ecology is increasing, however many ecologists have difficulty with conducting the required analyses. McCarthy bridges that gap, using a clear and accessible style. The text also incorporates case studies to demonstrate mark-recapture analysis, development of population models and the use of subjective judgement. The advantages of Bayesian methods, are also described here, for example, the incorporation of any relevant prior information and the ability to assess the evidence in favour of competing hypotheses. Free software is available as well as an accompanying web-site containing the data files and WinBUGS codes. Bayesian Methods for Ecology will appeal to academic researchers, upper undergraduate and graduate students of Ecology.

Bayesian Analysis Made Simple

Author: Phil Woodward
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1439839557
Size: 63.18 MB
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Although the popularity of the Bayesian approach to statistics has been growing for years, many still think of it as somewhat esoteric, not focused on practical issues, or generally too difficult to understand. Bayesian Analysis Made Simple is aimed at those who wish to apply Bayesian methods but either are not experts or do not have the time to create WinBUGS code and ancillary files for every analysis they undertake. Accessible to even those who would not routinely use Excel, this book provides a custom-made Excel GUI, immediately useful to those users who want to be able to quickly apply Bayesian methods without being distracted by computing or mathematical issues. From simple NLMs to complex GLMMs and beyond, Bayesian Analysis Made Simple describes how to use Excel for a vast range of Bayesian models in an intuitive manner accessible to the statistically savvy user. Packed with relevant case studies, this book is for any data analyst wishing to apply Bayesian methods to analyze their data, from professional statisticians to statistically aware scientists.

Bayesian Models For Astrophysical Data

Author: Joseph M. Hilbe
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1107133084
Size: 17.76 MB
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A hands-on guide to Bayesian models with R, JAGS, Python, and Stan code, for a wide range of astronomical data types.

Statistical Rethinking

Author: Richard McElreath
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1315362619
Size: 69.99 MB
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Statistical Rethinking: A Bayesian Course with Examples in R and Stan builds readers’ knowledge of and confidence in statistical modeling. Reflecting the need for even minor programming in today’s model-based statistics, the book pushes readers to perform step-by-step calculations that are usually automated. This unique computational approach ensures that readers understand enough of the details to make reasonable choices and interpretations in their own modeling work. The text presents generalized linear multilevel models from a Bayesian perspective, relying on a simple logical interpretation of Bayesian probability and maximum entropy. It covers from the basics of regression to multilevel models. The author also discusses measurement error, missing data, and Gaussian process models for spatial and network autocorrelation. By using complete R code examples throughout, this book provides a practical foundation for performing statistical inference. Designed for both PhD students and seasoned professionals in the natural and social sciences, it prepares them for more advanced or specialized statistical modeling. Web Resource The book is accompanied by an R package (rethinking) that is available on the author’s website and GitHub. The two core functions (map and map2stan) of this package allow a variety of statistical models to be constructed from standard model formulas.

Bayesian Ideas And Data Analysis

Author: Ronald Christensen
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1439803552
Size: 37.76 MB
Format: PDF, Docs
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Emphasizing the use of WinBUGS and R to analyze real data, Bayesian Ideas and Data Analysis: An Introduction for Scientists and Statisticians presents statistical tools to address scientific questions. It highlights foundational issues in statistics, the importance of making accurate predictions, and the need for scientists and statisticians to collaborate in analyzing data. The WinBUGS code provided offers a convenient platform to model and analyze a wide range of data. The first five chapters of the book contain core material that spans basic Bayesian ideas, calculations, and inference, including modeling one and two sample data from traditional sampling models. The text then covers Monte Carlo methods, such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation. After discussing linear structures in regression, it presents binomial regression, normal regression, analysis of variance, and Poisson regression, before extending these methods to handle correlated data. The authors also examine survival analysis and binary diagnostic testing. A complementary chapter on diagnostic testing for continuous outcomes is available on the book’s website. The last chapter on nonparametric inference explores density estimation and flexible regression modeling of mean functions. The appropriate statistical analysis of data involves a collaborative effort between scientists and statisticians. Exemplifying this approach, Bayesian Ideas and Data Analysis focuses on the necessary tools and concepts for modeling and analyzing scientific data. Data sets and codes are provided on a supplemental website.

Survival Analysis With Interval Censored Data

Author: Kris Bogaerts
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1351643053
Size: 47.90 MB
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Survival Analysis with Interval-Censored Data: A Practical Approach with Examples in R, SAS, and BUGS provides the reader with a practical introduction into the analysis of interval-censored survival times. Although many theoretical developments have appeared in the last fifty years, interval censoring is often ignored in practice. Many are unaware of the impact of inappropriately dealing with interval censoring. In addition, the necessary software is at times difficult to trace. This book fills in the gap between theory and practice. Features: -Provides an overview of frequentist as well as Bayesian methods. -Include a focus on practical aspects and applications. -Extensively illustrates the methods with examples using R, SAS, and BUGS. Full programs are available on a supplementary website. The authors: Kris Bogaerts is project manager at I-BioStat, KU Leuven. He received his PhD in science (statistics) at KU Leuven on the analysis of interval-censored data. He has gained expertise in a great variety of statistical topics with a focus on the design and analysis of clinical trials. Arnošt Komárek is associate professor of statistics at Charles University, Prague. His subject area of expertise covers mainly survival analysis with the emphasis on interval-censored data and classification based on longitudinal data. He is past chair of the Statistical Modelling Society?and editor of?Statistical Modelling: An International Journal. Emmanuel Lesaffre is professor of biostatistics at I-BioStat, KU Leuven. His research interests include Bayesian methods, longitudinal data analysis, statistical modelling, analysis of dental data, interval-censored data, misclassification issues, and clinical trials. He is the founding chair of the?Statistical Modelling Society, past-president of the?International Society for Clinical Biostatistics,?and fellow of?ISI?and?ASA.