Download the fat tail the power of political knowledge in an uncertain world with a new preface in pdf or read the fat tail the power of political knowledge in an uncertain world with a new preface in pdf online books in PDF, EPUB and Mobi Format. Click Download or Read Online button to get the fat tail the power of political knowledge in an uncertain world with a new preface in pdf book now. This site is like a library, Use search box in the widget to get ebook that you want.



The Fat Tail

Author: Ian Bremmer
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 9780199752881
Size: 50.28 MB
Format: PDF, ePub, Mobi
View: 4897
Download and Read
As Ian Bremmer and Preston Keat reveal in this innovative book, volatile political events such as the 2008 Georgia-Russia confrontation--and their catastrophic effects on business--happen much more frequently than investors imagine. On the curve that charts both the frequency of these events and the power of their impact, the "tail" of extreme political instability is not reassuringly thin but dangerously fat. Featuring a new Foreward that accounts for the cataclysmic effects of the 2008 financial crisis, The Fat Tail is the first book to both identify the wide range of political risks that global firms face and show investors how to effectively manage them. Written by two of the world's leading figures in political risk management, it reveals that while the world remains exceedingly risky for businesses, it is by no means incomprehensible. Political risk is unpredictable, but it is easier to analyze and manage than most people think. Applying the lessons of world history, Bremmer and Keat survey a vast range of contemporary risky situations, from stable markets like the United States or Japan, where politically driven regulation can still dramatically effect business, to more precarious places like Iran, China, Russia, Turkey, Mexico, and Nigeria, where private property is less secure and energy politics sparks constant volatility. The book sheds light on a wide array of political risks--risks that stem from great power rivalries, terrorist groups, government takeover of private property, weak leaders and internal strife, and even the "black swans" that defy prediction. But more importantly, the authors provide a wealth of unique methods, tools, and concepts to help corporations, money managers, and policy makers understand political risk, showing when and how political risk analysis works--and when it does not. "The Fat Tail delivers practical wisdom on the impact of political risk on firms of every description and valuable advice on how to use it. Ian Bremmer and Preston Keat offer innovative thinking and useful insight that will help business decision-makers find fresh answers to questions they may not yet know they have." --Fareed Zakaria, best-selling author of The Post-American World "Political risk has become increasingly complex, and The Fat Tail provides a truly new way to quantitatively assess it in established and emerging markets. It is essential reading for any CEO with multinational interests." --Randall Stephenson, Chairman, CEO and President, AT&T Inc. "Should be essential reading for anyone involved in international business even--perhaps especially--in places that seem politically stable." --Bill Emmott, former editor-in-chief of The Economist

A Short Guide To Political Risk

Author: Robert McKellar
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1351961632
Size: 11.21 MB
Format: PDF, ePub, Docs
View: 2108
Download and Read
In a competitive and increasingly internationalised business world, many companies rely on the high risk/reward ratio of operating in unstable areas. Those companies willing to engage in emerging or developing countries can often be exposed to a politically volatile environment over which they have little control. Political risk, therefore, is one of the most hazardous challenges that an international business can face. In A Short Guide to Political Risk you will find a business-centric introduction to political risk that will familiarise international managers with the concept and accelerate the learning curve towards proficient and coherent political risk management. Robert McKellar explores: the key political risks that companies have faced in the recent past, and current trends in the evolution of the political risk landscape; the concept of political risk and its constituent elements; models and approaches for assessing political risk; the principal options for managing political risk, and suggestions for organisational structures to ensure a coherent and consistent approach; as well as wider issues that a company needs to consider in developing its own attitude and philosophy on political risk. A Short Guide to Political Risk is an essential introductory guide for risk managers and for all senior managers concerned with their organisation's global performance and reputation.

Guide To Country Risk

Author: The Economist
Publisher: The Economist
ISBN: 1610394879
Size: 24.21 MB
Format: PDF
View: 1608
Download and Read
Country risk explains the things that can go wrong when business is conducted across borders. It's not just multinational companies, with factories worldwide and complex operations, that need to understand sudden changes in business conditions. These can affect any small firm that may be looking to expand sales abroad or work with a foreign supplier. The 2008-09 global financial crisis and the Arab Spring showed us how quickly and dramatically business conditions in any country can worsen and spread. But a thorough understanding and careful management of country risk will help a company survive a crisis—and even open up new opportunities. The Economist Guide to Country Risk explains: What risks foreign investors face, and how to measure and manage them in a systematic way. Why political and economic shocks are so hard to predict. Where economies are vulnerable and how existing risk models spot (or miss) signs of impending disaster. The typical bad habits of managers who ignore the warning signs. How and where the next crisis will emerge.

Managing Strategic Surprise

Author: Paul Bracken
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 0521883156
Size: 70.94 MB
Format: PDF, ePub, Docs
View: 4086
Download and Read
The scope and applicability of risk management have expanded greatly over the past decade. Banks, corporations, and public agencies employ its new technologies both in their daily operations and long-term investments. It would be unimaginable today for a global bank to operate without such systems in place. Similarly, many areas of public management, from NASA to the Centers for Disease Control, have recast their programs using risk management strategies. It is particularly striking, therefore, that such thinking has failed to penetrate the field of national security policy. Venturing into uncharted waters, Managing Strategic Surprise brings together risk management experts and practitioners from different fields with internationally-recognized national security scholars to produce the first systematic inquiry into risk and its applications in national security. The contributors examine whether advance risk assessment and management techniques can be successfully applied to address contemporary national security challenges.

The Constitution Of Risk

Author: Adrian Vermeule
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1107043727
Size: 30.38 MB
Format: PDF, Docs
View: 932
Download and Read
The Constitution of Risk is the first book to combine constitutional theory with the theory of risk regulation. The book argues that constitutional rulemaking is best understood as a means of managing political risks. Constitutional law structures and regulates the risks that arise in and from political life, such as an executive coup or military putsch, political abuse of ideological or ethnic minorities, or corrupt self-dealing by officials. The book claims that the best way to manage political risks is an approach it calls "optimizing constitutionalism" - in contrast to the worst-case thinking that underpins "precautionary constitutionalism," a mainstay of liberal constitutional theory. Drawing on a broad range of disciplines such as decision theory, game theory, welfare economics, political science, and psychology, this book advocates constitutional rulemaking undertaken in a spirit of welfare maximization, and offers a corrective to the pervasive and frequently irrational attitude of distrust of official power that is so prominent in American constitutional history and discourse.

Every Nation For Itself

Author: Ian Bremmer
Publisher: Penguin
ISBN: 159184620X
Size: 19.82 MB
Format: PDF, Mobi
View: 2094
Download and Read
Posing arguments about growing G-20 restrictions and the inability and unwillingness of powerful governments to mediate global challenges, a portrait of an imminent "G-Zero" world without a single country driving international agendas predicts intensified conflicts that will benefit and victimize specific nations. Reprint.

The End Of The Free Market

Author: Ian Bremmer
Publisher: Penguin
ISBN: 1101429453
Size: 19.55 MB
Format: PDF, ePub
View: 5992
Download and Read
Understanding the rise of state capitalism and its threat to global free markets The End of the Free Market details the growing phenomenon of state capitalism, a system in which governments drive local economies through ownership of market-dominant companies and large pools of excess capital, using them for political gain. This trend threatens America's competitive edge and the conduct of free markets everywhere. An expert on the intersection of economics and politics, Ian Bremmer has followed the rise of state-owned firms in China, Russia, the Arab states of the Persian Gulf, Iran, Venezuela, and elsewhere. He demonstrates the growing challenge that state capitalism will pose for the entire global economy. Among the questions addressed: Are we on the brink of a new kind of Cold War, one that pits competing economic systems in a battle for dominance? Can free market countries compete with state capitalist powerhouses over relations with countries that have elements of both systems-like India, Brazil, and Mexico? Does state capitalism have staying power? This guide to the next big global economic trend includes useful insights for investors, business leaders, policymakers, and anyone who wants to understand important emerging changes in international politics and the global economy.

Country And Political Risk

Author: Sam Wilkin
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781904339311
Size: 78.35 MB
Format: PDF, Mobi
View: 4875
Download and Read
Provides a fully comprehensive overview of the factors affecting global investment, including practical insights and research on assessing country risk, in-depth analysis of country risk cases and advice on how to manage a country risk portfolio.

New States New Politics

Author: Ian Bremmer
Publisher: CUP Archive
ISBN: 9780521577991
Size: 24.49 MB
Format: PDF, Kindle
View: 1281
Download and Read
This new edition is completely up-to-date and still the only comprehensive reference for students of the nations of the former Soviet Union.

Fixing Fragile States

Author: Seth D. Kaplan
Publisher: ABC-CLIO
ISBN: 9780275998288
Size: 79.31 MB
Format: PDF, Kindle
View: 2139
Download and Read
Offers analysis into political, economic and business mistakes and solutions within fragile states. This title argues that to avoid revisiting the carnage and catastrophes seen in places like Iraq, Bosnia, and the Congo, the West needs to rethink its ideas on fragile states and start helping their peoples build governments that fit the landscape