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The Future Of Intelligence

Author: Isabelle Duyvesteyn
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1135095647
Size: 10.11 MB
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This volume discusses the challenges the future holds for different aspects of the intelligence process and for organisations working in the field. The main focus of Western intelligence services is no longer on the intentions and capabilities of the Soviet Union and its allies. Instead, at present, there is a plethora of threats and problems that deserve attention. Some of these problems are short-term and potentially acute, such as terrorism. Others, such as the exhaustion of natural resources, are longer-term and by nature often more difficult to foresee in their implications. This book analyses the different activities that make up the intelligence process, or the ‘intelligence cycle’, with a focus on changes brought about by external developments in the international arena, such as technology and security threats. Drawing together a range of key thinkers in the field, The Future of Intelligence examines possible scenarios for future developments, including estimations about their plausibility, and the possible consequences for the functioning of intelligence and security services. This book will be of much interest to students of intelligence studies, strategic studies, foreign policy, security studies and IR in general.

Twenty First Century Intelligence

Author: Wesley K. Wark
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1135175470
Size: 44.80 MB
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Twenty-First Century Intelligence collects the thinking of some of the foremost experts on the future of intelligence in our new century. The essays contained in this volume are set against the backdrop of the transforming events of the September 11 terrorist attacks. Intelligence plays a central and highly visible role in the global war on terror, and in new doctrines of global pre-emption of threats. Yet the challenges for intelligence services are great as the twenty-first century unfolds. This collection will inform and stimulate new thinking about the current strengths and weaknesses of intelligence services, and about the future paths that they may follow. Behind the controversies of the present over intelligence performance, lie critical questions about how the past and future of an often mysterious but critical arm of the state are linked. This book was previously published as a special issue of the journal Intelligence and National Security.

The New Face Of War

Author: Bruce D. Berkowitz
Publisher: Simon and Schuster
ISBN: 9781439137505
Size: 74.92 MB
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As American and coalition troops fight the first battles of this new century -- from Afghanistan to Yemen to the Philippines to Iraq -- they do so in ways never before seen. Until recently, information war was but one piece of a puzzle, more than a sideshow in war but far less than the sum total of the game. Today, however, we find information war revolutionizing combat, from top to bottom. Gone are the advantages of fortified positions -- nothing is impregnable any longer. Gone is the reason to create an overwhelming mass of troops -- now, troop concentrations merely present easier targets. Instead, stealth, swarming, and "zapping" (precision strikes on individuals or equipment) are the order of the day, based on superior information and lightning-fast decision-making. In many ways, modern warfare is information warfare. Bruce Berkowitz's explanation of how information war revolutionized combat and what it means for our soldiers could not be better timed. As Western forces wage war against terrorists and their supporters, in actions large and small, on several continents, The New Face of War explains how they fight and how they will win or lose. There are four key dynamics to the new warfare: asymmetric threats, in which even the strongest armies may suffer from at least one Achilles' heel; information-technology competition, in which advantages in computers and communications are crucial; the race of decision cycles, in which the first opponent to process and react to information effectively is almost certain to win; and network organization, in which fluid arrays of combat forces can spontaneously organize in multiple ways to fight any given opponent at any time. America's use of networked, elite ground forces, in combination with precision-guided bombing from manned and unmanned flyers, turned Afghanistan from a Soviet graveyard into a lopsided field of American victory. Yet we are not invulnerable, and the same technology that we used in Kuwait in 1991 is now available to anyone with a credit card and access to the Internet. Al Qaeda is adept in the new model of war, and has searched long and hard for weaknesses in our defenses. Will we be able to stay ahead of its thinking? In Iraq, Saddam's army is in no position to defeat its enemies -- but could it defend Baghdad? As the world anxiously considers these and other questions of modern war, Bruce Berkowitz offers many answers and a framework for understanding combat that will never again resemble the days of massive marches on fortress-like positions. The New Face of War is a crucial guidebook for reading the headlines from across our troubled planet.

Understanding The Intelligence Cycle

Author: Mark Phythian
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1136765913
Size: 55.66 MB
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This book critically analyses the concept of the intelligence cycle, highlighting the nature and extent of its limitations and proposing alternative ways of conceptualising the intelligence process. The concept of the intelligence cycle has been central to the study of intelligence. As Intelligence Studies has established itself as a distinctive branch of Political Science, it has generated its own foundational literature, within which the intelligence cycle has constituted a vital thread - one running through all social-science approaches to the study of intelligence and constituting a staple of professional training courses. However, there is a growing acceptance that the concept neither accurately reflects the intelligence process nor accommodates important elements of it, such as covert action, counter-intelligence and oversight. Bringing together key authors in the field, the book considers these questions across a number of contexts: in relation to intelligence as a general concept, military intelligence, corporate/private sector intelligence and policing and criminal intelligence. A number of the contributions also go beyond discussion of the limitations of the cycle concept to propose alternative conceptualisations of the intelligence process. What emerges is a plurality of approaches that seek to advance the debate and, as a consequence, Intelligence Studies itself. This book will be of great interest to students of intelligence studies, strategic studies, criminology and policing, security studies and IR in general, as well as to practitioners in the field.

Strategic Intelligence For The 21st Century

Author: Alfred Rolington
Publisher: OUP Oxford
ISBN: 9780199654321
Size: 58.56 MB
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Offers a new model of intelligence analysis, the Mosaic Method, which capitalises on both the strengths and the weaknesses of the information revolution. Written by the former CEO of Jane's Information group, it presents analysis of current and past intelligence methods alongside fresh ideas and approaches for the future.

Intelligence Oversight In The Twenty First Century

Author: Ian Leigh
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1351188771
Size: 30.19 MB
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This book examines how key developments in international relations in recent years have affected intelligence agencies and their oversight. Since the turn of the millennium, intelligence agencies have been operating in a tense and rapidly changing security environment. This book addresses the impact of three factors on intelligence oversight: the growth of more complex terror threats, such as those caused by the rise of Islamic State; the colder East-West climate following Russia’s intervention in Ukraine and annexation of Crimea; and new challenges relating to the large-scale intelligence collection and intrusive surveillance practices revealed by Edward Snowden. This volume evaluates the impact these factors have had on security and intelligence services in a range of countries, together with the challenges that they present for intelligence oversight bodies to adapt in response. With chapters surveying developments in Norway, Romania, the UK, Belgium, France, the USA, Canada and Germany, the coverage is varied, wide and up-to-date. This book will be of much interest to students of intelligence studies, security studies and International Relations.

Introduction To Intelligence Studies

Author: Carl J. Jensen, III
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1498738370
Size: 39.73 MB
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Introduction to Intelligence Studies provides a comprehensive overview of intelligence and security issues confronting the United States today. Since the attacks of 9/11, the United States Intelligence Community has undergone an extensive overhaul. This textbook provides a comprehensive overview of intelligence and security issues, defining critical terms and reviewing the history of intelligence as practiced in the United States. Designed in a practical sequence, the book begins with the basics of intelligence, progresses through its history, describes best practices, and explores the way the intelligence community looks and operates today. The authors examine the ‘pillars’ of the American intelligence system—collection, analysis, counterintelligence, and covert operations—and demonstrate how these work together to provide ‘decision advantage’. The book offers equal treatment to the functions of the intelligence world—balancing coverage on intelligence collection, counterintelligence, information management, critical thinking, and decision-making. It also covers such vital issues as laws and ethics, writing and briefing for the intelligence community, and the emerging threats and challenges that intelligence professionals will face in the future. This revised and updated second edition addresses issues such as the growing influence of Russia and China, the emergence of the Islamic State, and the effects the Snowden and Manning leaks have had on the intelligence community. This book will be essential reading for students of intelligence studies, US national security, and IR in general.

Fixing The Spy Machine

Author: Arthur S. Hulnick
Publisher: ABC-CLIO
ISBN: 9780275966539
Size: 40.77 MB
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A post Cold War look at the U.S. intelligence system that examines the arcane world of spying, the intricacies of intelligence analysis, the positive and negative aspects of secret operations, and defenses against terrorism and industrial espionage.

21st Century Central Intelligence Agency Cia Intelligence Papers Thinking And Writing Cognitive Science And Intelligence Analysis Center For The Study Of Intelligence

Author: Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781980843368
Size: 79.24 MB
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This unique paper was produced by the Center for the Study of Intelligence. CSI was founded in 1974 in response to Director of Central Intelligence James Schlesinger's desire to create within CIA an organization that could "think through the functions of intelligence and bring the best intellects available to bear on intelligence problems." The Center, comprising professional historians and experienced practitioners, attempts to document lessons from past operations, explore the needs and expectations of intelligence consumers, and stimulate serious debate on current and future intelligence challenges.To support these activities, CSI publishes Studies in Intelligence, as well as books and monographs addressing historical, operational, doctrinal, and theoretical aspects of the intelligence profession. It also administers the CIA Museum and maintains the Agency's Historical Intelligence Collection.The monograph has two parts: first, a survey of cognitive science as we understood it in 1984; second, suggestions for changing the way we do intelligence analysis in light of what the discipline was telling us. The conscious mind cannot track more than about seven cognitive elements at the same time (cognitive-science jargon often refers to these elements as chunks); and to cope with this constraint, our brains constantly manipulate those elements, always at top speed and usually outside our conscious awareness.The second section is more of a mixed bag, but the following concepts remain relevant:* The importance of bringing to light what might be called, with a bow to former Defense Secretary Rumsfeld, the "unknown knowns"--the factors in our analysis that we are unaware of.* The conservative bias of our default analytic approach: we tend to work from what we already "know"--even though, in fact, a host of "unknown knowns" affect the "known."* The solitary nature of the writing process and the difference between the way intelligence analysts typically do their work (linear, cerebral, mostly written) and the way policymakers do theirs (nonlinear, transactional, mostly oral and interactive).* The importance of constructing our prose with the reader in mind; the monograph, summarizing the work of cognitive-science investigators, states, "A striking aspect of the approach of skilled writers is the frequency with which they think about how they are affecting the reader."* The importance of the work done at the beginning of an analytic project--what the monograph calls the "conceptual front end."* The time needed to gain real skill at a craft; the monograph cites data suggesting that people are unlikely to get good at what they do for at least a decade.* The use that can be made of information technology to improve the quality of analysis.The Center, comprising professional historians and experienced practitioners, attempts to document lessons from past operations, explore the needs and expectations of intelligence consumers, and stimulate serious debate on current and future intelligence challenges. To support these activities, CSI publishes Studies in Intelligence, as well as books and monographs addressing historical, operational, doctrinal, and theoretical aspects of the intelligence profession. It also administers the CIA Museum and maintains the Agency's Historical Intelligence Collection.This is a privately authored news service and educational publication of Progressive Management. Our publications synthesize official government information with original material - they are not produced by the federal government. They are designed to provide a convenient user-friendly reference work to uniformly present authoritative knowledge that can be rapidly read, reviewed or searched. Vast archives of important data that might otherwise remain inaccessible are available for instant review no matter where you are.

Transforming U S Intelligence

Author: Jennifer E. Sims
Publisher: Georgetown University Press
ISBN: 9781589014770
Size: 63.57 MB
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The intelligence failures exposed by the events of 9/11 and the missing weapons of mass destruction in Iraq have made one thing perfectly clear: change is needed in how the U.S. intelligence community operates. Transforming U.S. Intelligence argues that transforming intelligence requires as much a look to the future as to the past and a focus more on the art and practice of intelligence rather than on its bureaucratic arrangements. In fact, while the recent restructuring, including the creation of the Department of Homeland Security, may solve some problems, it has also created new ones. The authors of this volume agree that transforming policies and practices will be the most effective way to tackle future challenges facing the nation's security. This volume's contributors, who have served in intelligence agencies, the Departments of State or Defense, and the staffs of congressional oversight committees, bring their experience as insiders to bear in thoughtful and thought-provoking essays that address what such an overhaul of the system will require. In the first section, contributors discuss twenty-first-century security challenges and how the intelligence community can successfully defend U.S. national interests. The second section focuses on new technologies and modified policies that can increase the effectiveness of intelligence gathering and analysis. Finally, contributors consider management procedures that ensure the implementation of enhanced capabilities in practice. Transforming U.S. Intelligence supports the mandate of the new director of national intelligence by offering both careful analysis of existing strengths and weaknesses in U.S. intelligence and specific recommendations on how to fix its problems without harming its strengths. These recommendations, based on intimate knowledge of the way U.S. intelligence actually works, include suggestions for the creative mixing of technologies with new missions to bring about the transformation of U.S. intelligence without incurring unnecessary harm or expense. The goal is the creation of an intelligence community that can rapidly respond to developments in international politics, such as the emergence of nimble terrorist networks while reconciling national security requirements with the rights and liberties of American citizens.