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The Kelly Capital Growth Investment Criterion

Author: Leonard C. MacLean
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 9814293490
Size: 46.21 MB
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This volume provides the definitive treatment of fortune's formula or the Kelly capital growth criterion as it is often called. The strategy is to maximize long run wealth of the investor by maximizing the period by period expected utility of wealth with a logarithmic utility function. Mathematical theorems show that only the log utility function maximizes asymptotic long run wealth and minimizes the expected time to arbitrary large goals. In general, the strategy is risky in the short term but as the number of bets increase, the Kelly bettor's wealth tends to be much larger than those with essentially different strategies. So most of the time, the Kelly bettor will have much more wealth than these other bettors but the Kelly strategy can lead to considerable losses a small percent of the time. There are ways to reduce this risk at the cost of lower expected final wealth using fractional Kelly strategies that blend the Kelly suggested wager with cash. The various classic reprinted papers and the new ones written specifically for this volume cover various aspects of the theory and practice of dynamic investing. Good and bad properties are discussed, as are fixed-mix and volatility induced growth strategies. The relationships with utility theory and the use of these ideas by great investors are featured.

Handbook Of The Economics Of Wine In 2 Volumes

Author: Gergaud Olivier
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 9813232730
Size: 55.93 MB
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Over the last three decades, wine economics has emerged as a growing field within agricultural economics, but also in other fields such as finance, trade, growth, environmental economics and industrial organization. Wine has a few characteristics that differentiate it from other agricultural commodities, rendering it an interesting topic for economists in general. Fine wine can regularly fetch bottle prices that exceed several thousand dollars. It can be stored a long time and may increase in value with age. Fine wine quality and prices are extraordinarily sensitive to fluctuations in the weather of the year in which the grapes were grown. And wine is an experience good, i.e., its quality cannot be ascertained before consumption. As a result, consumers often rely on 'expert opinion' regarding quality and maturation prospects.This handbook takes a broad approach and familiarizes the reader with the main research strands in wine economics.After a general introduction to wine economics by Karl Storchmann, Volume 1 focuses on the core areas of wine economics. The first papers shed light on the relevance of the vineyard's natural environment for wine quality and prices. 'Predicting the Quality and Prices of Bordeaux Wine' by Orley Ashenfelter is a classic paper and may be the first wine economics publication ever. Ashenfelter shows how weather influences the quality and the price of Bordeaux Grands Crus wine. Since the weather condition of the year when the grapes were grown is known, an econometric analysis may be constructed. It turns out this model outperforms expert opinion, i.e., critical vintage scores. At best, expert opinion reflects public information. The subsequent papers, by Ashenfelter and Storchmann, Gergaud and Ginsburgh, and Cross, Plantinga and Stavins, tackle the terroir question. That is, they examine the relevance of a vineyard's physical characteristics for wine quality and prices, but from various dimensions and with different results. Next, Alston et al. analyze a question of great concern in the California wine industry: the causes and consequences of the rising alcohol content in California wine. Is climate change the culprit?The next chapter presents three papers that apply hedonic price analyses to fine wine. Combris, Lecocq and Visser show that Bordeaux wine market prices are essentially determined by the wines' objective characteristics. Costanigro, McCluskey and Mittelhammer differentiate their hedonic analysis for various market segments. Ali and Nauges incorporate reputational variables into their pricing model and distinguish between short- and long-run price effects.The next section of this volume deals with one of the unique characteristics of wine — its long storage life, which makes it potentially an investment asset. Studying wine's increasing role as an alternative asset class, Sanning et al., Burton and Jacobsen, Masset and Weisskopf, Masset and Henderson, and Fogarty all examine the rate of return to holding wine as well as the related risks. Since these papers analyze different wines and different time periods there is no 'one message.' However, all point out that, while wine may diversify an investor's portfolio, wine's returns do not beat common stock in the long run.The last two chapters examine the role of wine experts. First, Ashenfelter and Quandt revisit the 1976 'Judgment of Paris' and show that aggregating the assessments of several judges should go beyond 'adding points.' Depending on the method employed, the results may vary, and some measure of statistical precision is essential for interpreting the reliability of the results. In two different papers, Cicchetti and Quandt respond to the necessity to provide statistical tools for the assessment of wine tastings.In a seminal paper, Hodgson reports a remarkable field experiment in which similar wines were placed before judges at a major competition. The results have the shocking implication that how medals are awarded at a major California wine fair is not far from being random. Ashton analyzes the performance of professional wine judges and finds little support for the idea that experienced wine judges should be regarded as experts.Do experts scores influence the price of wine? The answer to this question is less obvious then commonly thought since expert opinion oftentimes only repeats public information such as wine quality that results from the weather that produced the wine grapes. Hadj Ali, Lecocq, and Visser as well as Dubois and Nauges find that high critical scores exert only small effects on wine prices. However, Roberts and Reagans show that a high critical exposure reduces the price-quality dispersion of wineries.Lecocq and Visser analyze wine prices and find that 'characteristics that are directly revealed to the consumer upon inspection of the bottle and its label explain the major part of price differences.' Expert opinion and sensory variables appear to play only a minor role. In an experimental setting using two Vickrey auctions, Combris, Lange and Issanchou confirm the leading role of public information, i.e., the label remains a key determinant for champagne prices. In a provocative and widely discussed study drawing on blind tasting results of some 5,000 wines, Goldstein and collaborators find that most consumers prefer less expensive over expensive wine.Finally, Weil examines the value of expert wine descriptions and lets several hundred subjects match the wines and their descriptors. His results suggest that the ability to assign a certain description to the matching wine is more or less random.Volume 2 covers the topics reputation, regulation, auctions, and market organizational. Landon and Smith, Anderson and Schamel, and Schamel analyze the impact of current quality and reputation (i.e., past quality) on wine prices from different regions. Their results suggest that prices are more influenced by reputation than by current quality. Costanigro, McCluskey and Goemans develop a nested framework for jointly examining the effects of product, firm and collective reputation on market prices.The following four papers deal with regulatory issues in the US as well as in Europe. While Riekoff and Sykuta shed light on the politics and economics of the three-tier system of alcohol distribution and the prohibition of direct wine shipments in the US, Deconinck and Swinnen analyze the European planting rights system. The political economy of European wine regulation is then covered by Melonie and Swinnen, before Anderson and Jensen shed light on Europe's complex system of wine industry subsidies.The next chapter is devoted to wine auctions. In three different papers, Fevrier, Roos and Visser, Ashenfelter, and Ginsburgh analyze the effects of specific auction designs on the resulting hammer prices. The papers focus on multi-unit ascending auctions, absentee bidders, and declining price anomalies.The last chapter, supply and organization, is devoted to a wide range of issues. First, Heien illuminates the price formation process in the California winegrape industry. Then, Frick analyzes if and how the separation of ownership and control affects the performance of German wineries.Vink, Kleynhans and Willem Hoffmann introduce us to various models of wine barrel financing, particularly to the Vincorp model employed in South Africa. Galbreath analyzes the role of women in the wine industry. He finds that (1) women are underrepresented and (2) that the presence of a female CEO increases the likelihood of women in winemaker, viticulturist, and marketing roles in that firm. Gokcekus, Hewstone, and Cakal draw on crowdsourced wine evaluations, i.e., Wine Tracker data, and show that private wine assessments are largely influenced by peer scores lending support to the assumption of the presence of a strong herding effect.Mahenc refers to the classic model of information asymmetries and develops a theoretical model highlighting the role of informed buyers in markets that are susceptible to the lemons problem. Lastly, in their paper 'Love or Money?' Scott, Morton and Podolny analyze how the presence of hobby winemakers may distort market outcomes. Hobby winemakers produce higher quality wines, charge higher prices, and enjoy lower financial returns than professional for-profit winemakers. As a result, profit-oriented winemakers are discouraged from locating at the high-quality end of the market.

The World Scientific Handbook Of Futures Markets

Author: Malliaris Anastasios G
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 9814566934
Size: 72.37 MB
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The World Scientific Handbook of Futures Markets serves as a definitive source for comprehensive and accessible information in futures markets. The emphasis is on the unique characteristics of futures markets that make them worthy of a special volume. In our judgment, futures markets are currently undergoing remarkable changes as trading is shifting from open outcry to electronic and as the traditional functions of hedging and speculation are extended to include futures as an alternative investment vehicle in traditional portfolios. The unique feature of this volume is the selection of five classic papers that lay the foundations of the futures markets and the invitation to the leading academics who do work in the area to write critical surveys in a dozen important topics.

Das Risiko Und Sein Preis

Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher: Verlagsgruppe Random House GmbH
ISBN: 3641234522
Size: 61.18 MB
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Warum wir nur denen vertrauen sollten, die etwas zu verlieren haben Stehen wir für die Risiken ein, die wir verursachen? Zu viele der Menschen, die auf der Welt Macht und Einfluss haben, so Nassim Nicholas Taleb, müssen nicht wirklich den Kopf hinhalten für das, was sie tun und veranlassen. Intellektuelle, Journalisten, Bürokraten, Banker, ihnen vor allem wirft er vor, kein »Skin in the Game« zu haben. Weil sie den Preis nicht bezahlen müssen, wenn sie irren, fällen sie schlechte Entscheidungen. Taleb zeigt anhand vieler Beispiele, wie »Skin in the Game«, ein fundamentales Konzept des Risikomanagements, auf alle Bereiche unseres Lebens übertragen werden kann. Sein neues Buch, so provozierend und bahnbrechend wie »Der Schwarze Schwan«, fordert uns heraus, alles, was wir über Risiko und Verantwortung in Politik, Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft zu wissen glauben, neu zu denken.

Der Dhandho Investor

Author: Mohnish Pabrai
Publisher:
ISBN: 9783938350768
Size: 44.23 MB
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Sie sind eine Minderheit, gleich wohin sie gehen. In der Heimat nicht gewollt, aus dem Exil vertrieben, ohne Geld, aber mit vielen hungrigen Kindern im Schlepptau so kamen die Patels aus Indien in den 70er-Jahren in den USA an. Obwohl nur ein Bruchteil der Inder in den USA zur Volksgruppe der Patels gehört, gehören Ihnen weit über 50 Prozent der Motels in den Vereinigten Staaten. Wie wurden aus den armen Immigranten so erfolgreiche Geschäftsleute? Monish Pabrai verrät Ihnen das Geheimnis: Dhandho. Dhandho heißt übersetzt etwa Unternehmungen, die Wohlstand hervorbringen. Darunter lassen sich neun Prinzipien zusammenfassen, die man bei seinen Geschäften beherzigen sollte. Indische Kultur mit westlichem Kapitalismus diese Mischung verspricht, ein Erfolgsrezept zu werden!

Call Center F R Dummies

Author: Réal Bergevin
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 9783527703395
Size: 79.26 MB
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Der Call Center-Markt ist zurzeit eine der am stärksten wachsenden Branchen. Doch auf was muss man alles achten, wenn man ein Call Center einrichtet und leitet? Finanzmanagement, Ressourcenanalyse, Performancesteigerung - all dies sind Dinge, die ein Call Center-Manager berücksichtigen muss. Welche Rolle spielt die IT? Wie sucht man das richtige Personal für ein Call Center aus? Wie schult man es und verbessert so seinen Kundenservice? Antworten auf all diese Fragen gibt der renommierte Call Center-Consultant Réal Bergevin in diesem angenehm lesbaren und hochinformativen Buch. Das ursprünglich kanadische Buch wurde in Zusammenarbeit mit dem Call Center Forum Deutschland e.V. und zahlreichen Call Center-Firmen auf den deutschen Markt zugeschnitten.

Falscher Ort Falsche Zeit

Author: Walter Mosley
Publisher: Suhrkamp Verlag
ISBN: 3518755803
Size: 14.87 MB
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Die Machenschaften eines dubiosen Auftraggebers zwingen Leonid McGill in das dunkle Herz Manhattans hinab. Dabei müßte der Privatdetektiv erst einmal darüber hinwegkommen, daß seine Geliebte einen Neuen hat, und verhindern, daß seine Söhne kriminell werden. Als er bei seinen Ermittlungen durch Zufall in einen Mord verwickelt wird, hat er dann aber doch ganz andere Sorgen ... Leonid McGills Familie ist alles andere als harmonisch: Seine Frau Kathrina liebt er nicht, zwei von drei Kindern sind nicht von ihm, und sein einziger leiblicher Sohn haßt ihn. Doch Harmonie ist ohnehin Leonids Sache nicht. Dafür hat er sich früher zu oft und zu lange mit den falschen Leuten eingelassen. Einer von ihnen ist Alphonse Rinaldo, der Mann, der in New York die Strippen zieht. Und auch wenn man besser vermeiden sollte, einen Auftrag von Rinaldo anzunehmen, ist es genauso wenig ratsam, einen solchen auszuschlagen. Leonid macht sich also auf die Suche nach der Frau, die dem Strippenzieher Sorgen bereitet. Und prompt findet er sich als Hauptverdächtiger in einem Mordfall wieder.