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Modeling And Reasoning With Bayesian Networks

Author: Adnan Darwiche
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 0521884381
Size: 15.27 MB
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This book provides a thorough introduction to the formal foundations and practical applications of Bayesian networks. It provides an extensive discussion of techniques for building Bayesian networks that model real-world situations, including techniques for synthesizing models from design, learning models from data, and debugging models using sensitivity analysis. It also treats exact and approximate inference algorithms at both theoretical and practical levels. The author assumes very little background on the covered subjects, supplying in-depth discussions for theoretically inclined readers and enough practical details to provide an algorithmic cookbook for the system developer.

Risk Assessment And Decision Analysis With Bayesian Networks

Author: Norman Fenton
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1439809119
Size: 77.69 MB
Format: PDF, ePub
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Although many Bayesian Network (BN) applications are now in everyday use, BNs have not yet achieved mainstream penetration. Focusing on practical real-world problem solving and model building, as opposed to algorithms and theory, Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis with Bayesian Networks explains how to incorporate knowledge with data to develop and use (Bayesian) causal models of risk that provide powerful insights and better decision making. Provides all tools necessary to build and run realistic Bayesian network models Supplies extensive example models based on real risk assessment problems in a wide range of application domains provided; for example, finance, safety, systems reliability, law, and more Introduces all necessary mathematics, probability, and statistics as needed The book first establishes the basics of probability, risk, and building and using BN models, then goes into the detailed applications. The underlying BN algorithms appear in appendices rather than the main text since there is no need to understand them to build and use BN models. Keeping the body of the text free of intimidating mathematics, the book provides pragmatic advice about model building to ensure models are built efficiently. A dedicated website, www.BayesianRisk.com, contains executable versions of all of the models described, exercises and worked solutions for all chapters, PowerPoint slides, numerous other resources, and a free downloadable copy of the AgenaRisk software.

Probabilistic Graphical Models For Genetics Genomics And Postgenomics

Author: Christine Sinoquet
Publisher: OUP Oxford
ISBN: 0191019208
Size: 18.92 MB
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Nowadays bioinformaticians and geneticists are faced with myriad high-throughput data usually presenting the characteristics of uncertainty, high dimensionality and large complexity. These data will only allow insights into this wealth of so-called 'omics' data if represented by flexible and scalable models, prior to any further analysis. At the interface between statistics and machine learning, probabilistic graphical models (PGMs) represent a powerful formalism to discover complex networks of relations. These models are also amenable to incorporating a priori biological information. Network reconstruction from gene expression data represents perhaps the most emblematic area of research where PGMs have been successfully applied. However these models have also created renewed interest in genetics in the broad sense, in particular regarding association genetics, causality discovery, prediction of outcomes, detection of copy number variations, and epigenetics. This book provides an overview of the applications of PGMs to genetics, genomics and postgenomics to meet this increased interest. A salient feature of bioinformatics, interdisciplinarity, reaches its limit when an intricate cooperation between domain specialists is requested. Currently, few people are specialists in the design of advanced methods using probabilistic graphical models for postgenomics or genetics. This book deciphers such models so that their perceived difficulty no longer hinders their use and focuses on fifteen illustrations showing the mechanisms behind the models. Probabilistic Graphical Models for Genetics, Genomics and Postgenomics covers six main themes: (1) Gene network inference (2) Causality discovery (3) Association genetics (4) Epigenetics (5) Detection of copy number variations (6) Prediction of outcomes from high-dimensional genomic data. Written by leading international experts, this is a collection of the most advanced work at the crossroads of probabilistic graphical models and genetics, genomics, and postgenomics. The self-contained chapters provide an enlightened account of the pros and cons of applying these powerful techniques.

Bayesian Networks And Influence Diagrams A Guide To Construction And Analysis

Author: Uffe B. Kjærulff
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9780387741017
Size: 59.74 MB
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Probabilistic networks, also known as Bayesian networks and influence diagrams, have become one of the most promising technologies in the area of applied artificial intelligence. This book provides a comprehensive guide for practitioners who wish to understand, construct, and analyze intelligent systems for decision support based on probabilistic networks. Intended primarily for practitioners, this book does not require sophisticated mathematical skills. The theory and methods presented are illustrated through more than 140 examples, and exercises are included for the reader to check his/her level of understanding.

Symbolic And Quantitative Approaches To Reasoning With Uncertainty

Author: Lluis Godo
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3540273263
Size: 39.66 MB
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These are the proceedings of the 8th European Conference on Symbolic and Quantitative Approaches to Reasoning with Uncertainty, ECSQARU 2005, held in Barcelona (Spain), July 6–8, 2005. The ECSQARU conferences are biennial and have become a major forum for advances in the theory and practice of r- soning under uncertainty. The ?rst ECSQARU conference was held in Marseille (1991), and after in Granada (1993), Fribourg (1995), Bonn (1997), London (1999), Toulouse (2001) and Aalborg (2003). The papers gathered in this volume were selected out of 130 submissions, after a strict review process by the members of the Program Committee, to be presented at ECSQARU 2005. In addition, the conference included invited lectures by three outstanding researchers in the area, Seraf ́ ?n Moral (Imprecise Probabilities), Rudolf Kruse (Graphical Models in Planning) and J ́ erˆ ome Lang (Social Choice). Moreover, the application of uncertainty models to real-world problems was addressed at ECSQARU 2005 by a special session devoted to s- cessful industrial applications, organized by Rudolf Kruse. Both invited lectures and papers of the special session contribute to this volume. On the whole, the programme of the conference provided a broad, rich and up-to-date perspective of the current high-level research in the area which is re?ected in the contents of this volume. IwouldliketowarmlythankthemembersoftheProgramCommitteeandthe additional referees for their valuable work, the invited speakers and the invited session organizer.

Modelling And Reasoning With Vague Concepts

Author: Jonathan Lawry
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 0387290567
Size: 26.58 MB
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Vagueness is central to the flexibility and robustness of natural language descriptions. Vague concepts are robust to the imprecision of our perceptions, while still allowing us to convey useful, and sometimes vital, information. The study of vagueness in Artificial Intelligence (AI) is therefore motivated by the desire to incorporate this robustness and flexibility into intelligent computer systems. Such a goal, however, requires a formal model of vague concepts that will allow us to quantify and manipulate the uncertainty resulting from their use as a means of passing information between autonomous agents. This volume outlines a formal representation framework for modelling and reasoning with vague concepts in Artificial Intelligence. The new calculus has many applications, especially in automated reasoning, learning, data analysis and information fusion. This book gives a rigorous introduction to label semantics theory, illustrated with many examples, and suggests clear operational interpretations of the proposed measures. It also provides a detailed description of how the theory can be applied in data analysis and information fusion based on a range of benchmark problems.

Causality

Author: Judea Pearl
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1139643983
Size: 58.58 MB
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Written by one of the preeminent researchers in the field, this book provides a comprehensive exposition of modern analysis of causation. It shows how causality has grown from a nebulous concept into a mathematical theory with significant applications in the fields of statistics, artificial intelligence, economics, philosophy, cognitive science, and the health and social sciences. Judea Pearl presents and unifies the probabilistic, manipulative, counterfactual, and structural approaches to causation and devises simple mathematical tools for studying the relationships between causal connections and statistical associations. Cited in more than 2,100 scientific publications, it continues to liberate scientists from the traditional molds of statistical thinking. In this revised edition, Judea Pearl elucidates thorny issues, answers readers' questions, and offers a panoramic view of recent advances in this field of research. Causality will be of interest to students and professionals in a wide variety of fields. Dr Judea Pearl has received the 2011 Rumelhart Prize for his leading research in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and systems from The Cognitive Science Society.

Bayesian Network Technologies Applications And Graphical Models

Author: Mittal, Ankush
Publisher: IGI Global
ISBN: 159904143X
Size: 75.81 MB
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"This book provides an excellent, well-balanced collection of areas where Bayesian networks have been successfully applied; it describes the underlying concepts of Bayesian Networks with the help of diverse applications, and theories that prove Bayesian networks valid"--Provided by publisher.

Arguments Stories And Criminal Evidence

Author: Floris J. Bex
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9789400701403
Size: 29.10 MB
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In this book a theory of reasoning with evidence in the context of criminal cases is developed. The main subject of this study is not the law of evidence but rather the rational process of proof, which involves constructing, testing and justifying scenarios about what happened using evidence and commonsense knowledge. A central theme in the book is the analysis of ones reasoning, so that complex patterns are made more explicit and clear. This analysis uses stories about what happened and arguments to anchor these stories in evidence. Thus the argumentative and the narrative approaches from the research in legal philosophy and legal psychology are combined. Because the book describes its subjects in both an informal and a formal style, it is relevant for scholars in legal philosophy, AI, logic and argumentation theory. The book can also appeal to practitioners in the investigative and legal professions, who are interested in the ways in which they can and should reason with evidence.