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Probability Econometrics And Truth

Author: Hugo A. Keuzenkamp
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9781139431040
Size: 80.99 MB
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When John Maynard Keynes likened Jan Tinbergen's early work in econometrics to black magic and alchemy, he was expressing a widely held view of a new discipline. However, even after half a century of practical work and theorizing by some of the most accomplished social scientists, Keynes' comments are still repeated today. This book assesses the foundations and development of econometrics and sets out a basis for the reconstruction of the foundations of econometric inference by examining the various interpretations of probability theory which underlie econometrics. Keuzenkamp claims that the probabilistic foundations of econometrics are weak, and although econometric inferences may yield interesting knowledge, claims to be able to falsify or verify economic theories are unwarranted. Methodological falsificationism in econometrics is an illusion. Instead, it is argued, econometrics should locate itself in the tradition of positivism.

The Oxford Handbook Of Post Keynesian Economics Volume 1

Author: G. C. Harcourt
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 019935930X
Size: 75.61 MB
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This two volume Handbook contains chapters on the main areas to which Post-Keynesians have made sustained and important contributions. These include theories of accumulation, distribution, pricing, money and finance, international trade and capital flows, the environment, methodological issues, criticism of mainstream economics and Post-Keynesian policies. The Introduction outlines what is in the two volumes, in the process placing Post-Keynesian procedures and contributions in appropriate contexts.

Evolvodynamics The Mathematical Theory Of Economic Evolution

Author: Len H. Wallast
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3642340563
Size: 17.31 MB
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Dissatisfied with the flaws of orthodox economics, the author proposes to base economic theory on the three principles of Darwinian evolution (variation, inheritance, selection). Pursuing a suggestion of E.T. Jaynes of 1991, the innovation is in treating economic behavior as chance events of selection. This involves abandoning the methods of mainstream economics and to apply instead the methods by which Claude E. Shannon analyzed information transport over a stationary channel. As economic processes are non-stationary, the author clarifies first how the Shannon-system must be reshaped in a system capable to describe economic evolution mathematically. As economic processes are non-stationary, the author first clarifies how the Shannon system must be reshaped into one capable of describing economic evolutions mathematically. Deriving the universal relations between input, output, the economic growth rate, inflation and money flow involves applying differential sets of selection, Venn diagrams, bitpulses as units of selection and the probability distributions of bitpulses. This is a thought-provocative and highly informative book of which the explanatory power goes far beyond that of traditional economics. It should be on the readers list of everyone concerned with the weal and woe of economic theorizing.

Semiparametric And Nonparametric Methods In Econometrics

Author: Joel L. Horowitz
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9780387928708
Size: 44.20 MB
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Standard methods for estimating empirical models in economics and many other fields rely on strong assumptions about functional forms and the distributions of unobserved random variables. Often, it is assumed that functions of interest are linear or that unobserved random variables are normally distributed. Such assumptions simplify estimation and statistical inference but are rarely justified by economic theory or other a priori considerations. Inference based on convenient but incorrect assumptions about functional forms and distributions can be highly misleading. Nonparametric and semiparametric statistical methods provide a way to reduce the strength of the assumptions required for estimation and inference, thereby reducing the opportunities for obtaining misleading results. These methods are applicable to a wide variety of estimation problems in empirical economics and other fields, and they are being used in applied research with increasing frequency. The literature on nonparametric and semiparametric estimation is large and highly technical. This book presents the main ideas underlying a variety of nonparametric and semiparametric methods. It is accessible to graduate students and applied researchers who are familiar with econometric and statistical theory at the level taught in graduate-level courses in leading universities. The book emphasizes ideas instead of technical details and provides as intuitive an exposition as possible. Empirical examples illustrate the methods that are presented. This book updates and greatly expands the author’s previous book on semiparametric methods in econometrics. Nearly half of the material is new.

Statistical Methods Of Econometrics

Author: Edmond Malinvaud
Publisher: North-Holland
Size: 64.54 MB
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This now classic volume aims at a systematic presentation of the statistical methods used for the analysis of economic data. The properties of the various procedures are studied within the framework of theoretical stochastic models. Their relevance for inference on the economic phenomena is discussed at length. This third edition has been updated in many respects. Chapter 8 (Regression in Various Contexts) has been rewritten and now provides a full discussion of estimation in the linear models with a partially unknown covariance matrix, which introduces a systematic treatment of heteroscedasticity, random coefficients and composite errors. A new chapter has been added on simultaneous equation models that are non-linear with respect to the endogenous variables. The reader will also find new sections on shrunken estimators, on the choice of a model, on specification and estimation for distributed lag equations.

History And Methodology Of Econometrics

Author: Neil De Marchi
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Size: 40.73 MB
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The past decade has seen a lively debate on the methodology of econometrics: econometricians can now estimate almost any model they choose to specify, but many have expressed doubts about the practical usefulness and scientific validity of such models. In this volume, prominent historians of econometrics work with methodologists and practicing econometricians to illuminate current controversies and explain the origins of the present situation.

Statistical And Econometric Methods For Transportation Data Analysis Second Edition

Author: Simon P. Washington
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1420082868
Size: 60.96 MB
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The complexity, diversity, and random nature of transportation problems necessitates a broad analytical toolbox. Describing tools commonly used in the field, Statistical and Econometric Methods for Transportation Data Analysis, Second Edition provides an understanding of a broad range of analytical tools required to solve transportation problems. It includes a wide breadth of examples and case studies covering applications in various aspects of transportation planning, engineering, safety, and economics. After a solid refresher on statistical fundamentals, the book focuses on continuous dependent variable models and count and discrete dependent variable models. Along with an entirely new section on other statistical methods, this edition offers a wealth of new material. New to the Second Edition A subsection on Tobit and censored regressions An explicit treatment of frequency domain time series analysis, including Fourier and wavelets analysis methods New chapter that presents logistic regression commonly used to model binary outcomes New chapter on ordered probability models New chapters on random-parameter models and Bayesian statistical modeling New examples and data sets Each chapter clearly presents fundamental concepts and principles and includes numerous references for those seeking additional technical details and applications. To reinforce a practical understanding of the modeling techniques, the data sets used in the text are offered on the book’s CRC Press web page. PowerPoint and Word presentations for each chapter are also available for download.

Econometric Model Selection

Author: Antonio Aznar Grasa
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9401713588
Size: 38.57 MB
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This book proposes a new methodology for the selection of one (model) from among a set of alternative econometric models. Let us recall that a model is an abstract representation of reality which brings out what is relevant to a particular economic issue. An econometric model is also an analytical characterization of the joint probability distribution of some random variables of interest, which yields some information on how the actual economy works. This information will be useful only if it is accurate and precise; that is, the information must be far from ambiguous and close to what we observe in the real world Thus, model selection should be performed on the basis of statistics which summarize the degree of accuracy and precision of each model. A model is accurate if it predicts right; it is precise if it produces tight confidence intervals. A first general approach to model selection includes those procedures based on both characteristics, precision and accuracy. A particularly interesting example of this approach is that of Hildebrand, Laing and Rosenthal (1980). See also Hendry and Richard (1982). A second general approach includes those procedures that use only one of the two dimensions to discriminate among models. In general, most of the tests we are going to examine correspond to this category.

Econometric Applications Of Maximum Likelihood Methods

Author: J. S. Cramer
Publisher: CUP Archive
ISBN: 9780521378574
Size: 28.62 MB
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The advent of electronic computing permits the empirical analysis of economic models of far greater subtlety and rigour than before, when many interesting ideas were not followed up because the calculations involved made this impracticable. The estimation and testing of these more intricate models is usually based on the method of Maximum Likelihood, which is a well-established branch of mathematical statistics. Its use in econometrics has led to the development of a number of special techniques; the specific conditions of econometric research moreover demand certain changes in the interpretation of the basic argument. This book is a self-contained introduction to this field. It consists of three parts. The first deals with general features of Maximum Likelihood methods; the second with linear and nonlinear regression; and the third with discrete choice and related micro-economic models. Readers should already be familiar with elementary statistical theory, with applied econometric research papers, or with the literature on the mathematical basis of Maximum Likelihood theory. They can also try their hand at some advanced econometric research of their own.

Econometric Analysis Of Model Selection And Model Testing

Author: M. Ishaq Bhatti
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 135194195X
Size: 80.65 MB
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In recent years econometricians have examined the problems of diagnostic testing, specification testing, semiparametric estimation and model selection. In addition researchers have considered whether to use model testing and model selection procedures to decide the models that best fit a particular dataset. This book explores both issues with application to various regression models, including the arbitrage pricing theory models. It is ideal as a reference for statistical sciences postgraduate students, academic researchers and policy makers in understanding the current status of model building and testing techniques.